John Wilder of Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise updates his Civil War 2.0 Weather Report: Standing At The Brink
“Treat the cause, not the symptom!” – The Rocky Horror Picture Show
No change this month. We’ll see what January brings . . .
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Open War.
We remain in the gray zone between step 9. and step 10. I will maintain the clock at 2 minutes to midnight. Last month I indicated that there was a chance to move the clock back if authorities took Leftist violence seriously.
Looks like I was too optimistic.
Previously, I stated that the only thing keeping the clock from ticking to full midnight is the number of deaths. I put the total at (this is my best approximation, since no one tracks the death toll from rebellion-related violence) 600 out of the 1,000 required for the international civil war definition.
But as close as we are to the precipice of war, be careful. Things could change at any minute.
In this issue: Front Matter – Symptom, Not The Cause – Violence And Censorship Update – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Harper’s Ferry 2.0 – Links
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, feel free to subscribe and you’ll get every post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at 7:30 Eastern, free of charge.
Symptom, Not The Cause
The Left has many errors in perception. Many of these errors are ‘own goals’ – the Left doesn’t know what the Right is thinking because they’ve managed to short-circuit the feedback mechanisms created by the Founding Fathers. As Sarah Hoyt puts it so eloquently (LINK):
For years I’ve told the left that when they used fraud to win, they’d broken the feedback mechanism. It didn’t mean their ideas were winning, that people agreed with them, or that they were safe. It was the equivalent of breaking the fire alarm and thinking they were safe from fires.
This is similar to my commentary in this post (Four Boxes: Soap, Jury, Ballot, and Ammo).
If you asked the average Leftist, I think most of them would say that Trump was the cause of the situation that we as a nation find ourselves in. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Trump is a symptom. Trump is, in many ways, a skilled communicator. He uses media to bypass gatekeepers and those that would interpret him to speak directly to the people. Could he have had tens of thousands of people chanting “Build The Wall” or “Lock Her Up” if those people didn’t believe that in the first place?
Of course not.
Trump found the messages that resonated with a very large group of Americans that had been bypassed by both the media and the political process for decades and gave them a voice. Does he believe in those messages?
I have no idea. I am not a mind reader. But Trump became a mirror of a large group of voters to show them that, yes, he heard them. And, yes, he’d fight for them. The degree that he actually followed through is debatable.
But back to the voice of the voters: People wanted to “Build The Wall” not because they hated the people coming across the border, but because borders matter. If everyone from Japan (for instance) moved to California, you wouldn’t have Californians: you’d just have more Japan. Americans, rightly, want to live in America. They’re not afraid of change, they just want the inevitable changes to be American, and not Japanese (for example).
“Lock Her Up” wasn’t just about Hillary – it was about the groups of politicians that served themselves and the state instead of voters. Why are the Clintons swimming in hundreds of millions in cash when they came into office as thousandaires? Why are the Obama family wondering which mansion to stay in each week rather than budgeting for a once a year family vacation?
Corruption. It wasn’t just Hillary, it was (and is) virtually every politician in Washington.
That’s what Leftists don’t understand – the movement Trump gave a voice to won’t go away regardless of what happens to Trump. The underlying causes aren’t getting better, they’re festering because the feedback mechanism is broken.
Violence And Censorship Update
The Capitol was stormed, but you know the details on that one. December had numerous violent protests by the Left, but only the Capitol having unscheduled visitors received major press coverage. Rationale?
This month has been, by far, the biggest outpouring of censorship of any month of my lifetime. The sitting President of the United States has been banned from essentially every online social media outlet. Even the store that sells merchandise related to Trump, Shopify©, has banned him. I’m certain that stopping the sale of red MAGA hats will solve all of the world’s problems.
Twitter® was, by far, the biggest way that Trump evaded the mainstream media lock on news selection and interpretation. Trump could speak directly to the American people without being a newscaster using the words “unfounded” every other word. He had sent 57,000 Tweets™ since he was on the service.
Not only was Trump censored, but I heard that the top 35% of his supporters were also censored. Journalist John Robb put it very well:
Bottom line: expect more, much more, censorship in the coming year.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real-time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that lead to the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Up is more violent. The public perception of violence dropped drastically during November, and dropped again in December. January? Too soon to tell.
Up is more unstable. Instability dropped significantly in December. January – will it bring conclusion, or more tension?
The economic measures took a small setback this month. I’d expect January to show a minor uptick.
Down is good, in theory. This is a statistic showing border apprehensions by the Border Patrol. Numbers of illegals being caught is rising again from a record November to a record December – the floodgates are opening.
Harper’s Ferry 2.0
In October of 1859, ever photogenic John Brown and 22 of his best friends decided that the time was right to trigger a slave uprising in the South. Their idea was to capture the Harper’s Ferry Arsenal and then – well, the “and then” part wasn’t exactly clear to anyone but Brown. His plan was that he would kidnap slaves locally, and then give them guns as part of a great army.
The slaves he kidnapped ran away from Brown, having no desire to take part in his plan. In the end, most of John Brown’s men were either shot by the United States Marines that retook the Harper’s Ferry Arsenal or were executed after a trial. Ironically, it was the actions of Robert E. Lee that stopped the locals from hanging Brown on the spot and allowing him to be taken for a trial.
This was the last major incident that happened before Civil War 1.0, and greatly divided the country: half saw John Brown as a (sort of insane) leader that was working for good even though people died in the raid. The other half saw him as a treasonous criminal and a threat to their way of life.
I think that the way that people think of the storming of the Capitol last week has exactly the same polarity. They went to go protest at the Capitol, found that they could (more or less) waltz in and claim the place. Having done so, they were like a terrier that caught a Ford F-150® pickup. “What the heck do I do now?”
Some see it as a (sort of silly) show to our government that the government exists at our pleasure, and that even the walls of the Congress, located in one of the most Leftist strongholds in the nation, is not safe. They see a group of people protesting an election that they feel was decided by fraud. They feel this way honestly and sincerely.
Others see it as treason against the nation and actions to prevent a president from being confirmed. They feel that their cause is just, since, even though there might have been irregularities in voting (50% of Biden voters think the election was stolen) that it’s okay. They think: “Trump will be gone, and the Electoral College is silly, since popular votes are what democracies do, anyway.”
Regardless, this is an action that won’t be repeated. The State is scared that it was tested and found to be so vulnerable. They won’t make this mistake again – even now thousands of troops are pouring into Washington D.C.
As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much!!
From Ricky: “My self-imposed cut off for this batch of links is the GA Senate Race and the Congressional acceptance of the Electoral votes. Who the hell knows what is about to happen next.”
ON THE EVE OF DECIDING CONTROL FOR THE SENATE AND PRESIDENCY:
CALLS TO ARMS:
CALLS FOR CALM:
CALLS TO SPLIT:
A WAKE-UP CALL: