Forward Observer has a post up about their return to a focus on training communities for disaster preparedness planning rather than the Early Warning briefs they have been posting and emailing. The folks over at Forward Observer have been a real asset to communities trying to prepare for a few years now. Sam Culper’s SHTF Intelligence book, and the FO Area Intelligence Course are very good tools for learning how to think about what you should be thinking about. At the heart of intelligence is the ability to reduce uncertainty. What intelligence brings to the table is an ability to make well-informed, time-sensitive decisions. Get trained. Get intelligence. Be prepared.
I started this Forward Observer intelligence project in 2016 because I was concerned.
Rising and unsustainable national debt, expanding government authority and the continued loss of individual liberty, the militarization of police, the rise of cultural and economic Marxism, the risk of war with Russia and China, the risk of systems disruption via cyber and financial vulnerabilities — there were lot of things going on that greatly concerned me. And the question I ask is, has any of this really changed in two years?
If nothing else, many of these things are actually worse today and, despite our best hopes and optimism, the trend is set to continue. It’s very conceivable that in another two years, this country is much worse off. An economic recession, a major war, a major cyber attack, an increase in political violence — all these things have a growing likelihood.
I left the U.S. intelligence community in 2012 because I, like many of you, could see the proverbial “writing on the wall”. Considering the threats, I no longer wanted to live in a built-up area. I didn’t want to work for a government that didn’t promote the best interests of the American People. I didn’t want to serve a president who was actively undermining everything I loved about my country. So I left my job as an intelligence analyst and never once regretted it.
A lot of the fears and, at times, panic induced in the emergency preparedness community never came to fruition. Part of that reason is because a lot of the fears were exaggerated, which is why I guide my analysis through the maxim: the more extreme the prediction, the less likely it is to occur. I don’t and have never believed in total economic collapse or complete societal collapse; instead, I believed and still today believe that conditions will continually break down over a period of years until some trigger (like a major recession, some act of significant political violence, or maybe a cyber attack) is the catalyst for parts of the nation to just devolve into active conflict. It may go so slowly that it catches the mainstream by surprise, but even the mainstream is picking up on the idea that we’re moving into a reality where a domestic conflict is conceivable.
And this brings me to the Early Warning. At a meeting yesterday, we brainstormed about how we could best serve our readers in light of what’s probably going to happen in the future. Ultimately, we decided that I need to start writing again about intelligence, security, and defense for community and disaster preparedness planning. If you followed my old blog Guerrillamerica from 2011-2015, then you’re already familiar with the kinds of things I write about: intelligence collection and analysis, reducing uncertainty and navigating an uncertain future, how to build resiliency and security at the community level, and what warfighting will look like during an irregular conflict, like the one I believe we’re heading towards. So in lieu of the daily Early Warning report and email, I’m going to spend my early morning time on something that’s way more valuable, which is teaching these skills and concepts so you can use them in your everyday preparedness planning…