FO: Five Reasons Why We’ll Have Another Domestic Conflict

Sam Culper over at the Forward Observer intelligence shop has a new article up titled Five reasons why we’ll have another domestic conflict.

Demographically, culturally, fiscally, we’re hemorrhaging as a country. Studies show that most immigrants, legal or illegal, have a political predilection towards larger, more authoritarian government. They do or will vote Democrat. That’s why amnesty is the death knell for the right-leaning electorate. And amnesty is only a matter of time, which means the GOP as a nationally viable party could have an expiration date within your lifetime. Several states, including Texas, were decided by fewer votes than those states have illegal immigrants. Amnesty pushes those states blue, which then push a far Left agenda in a Democrat-controlled Congress. That writing is on the wall.

Without amnesty, studies show that larger percentages and greater numbers of future generations are slightly or consistently liberal. Millennials are the least white voting generation on record; Generation Z is less white than Millennials, and these two groups are or would vote for Leftist populists (like Bernie Sanders) in far greater numbers than previous generations. If we look at political leanings by generation (graph below), we can see the decline in percentage of those mostly or consistently conservative. (Look at each generation in 2017, for instance.) The opposite is also true: the Baby Boomer generation in 2017 had a greater percentage of mostly or consistently liberal than the Silent Generation; Generation X had a higher percentage than the Baby Boomers; and the Millennial generation has a higher percentage than Generation X. Each generation is becoming more liberal due wholly to immigration. Because immigration is little more than importing future Democrat voters, I don’t see how the GOP hangs on to anything outside of regional power without a cultural resurgence (like Reagan, for instance).

Click here to continue reading at Forward Observer.

FO: Intelligence and Community Security, Day 01

The intel guys at Forward Observer have started up their new Intelligence and Community Security series. Read it to learn what intelligence is, how to get it, and how it is critical to preparedness.  Here is an excerpt from Day 01.

America’s trajectory is pointing towards another conflict. It’s something many of us have suspected for a long time, and the question is What exactly will it look like? Perhaps a better question is Are we already in it?  My answer is probably, and I’ll describe what I believe could happen in the future. In short: empirical data shows that any potential conflict is likely going to be driven by demographic and economic change. Amnesty and a return to liberal immigration policies are less than a decade away, and artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics are likely to create more job loss than jobs created. This disproportionately affects low skill, low wage workers, meaning higher youth unemployment, which is already an early warning indicator of civil unrest around the world; and amnesty and unlimited immigration is a vehicle to amass political dominance because of the preferences of those receiving the amnesty.

These two likely unstoppable trends are going to accelerate the adoption of identitarianism based on race (social justice) and class (economic justice) instead of civic nationality. Amnesty will overwhelmingly benefit the Democratic Party at a time when a pivot to left wing populism is much needed to counter a rise in right wing populism. The effects, centered on anti-capitalist, anti-American, pro-social “justice”, and pro-international socialist policies, are going to permanently change the political landscape of America. If this is happens as soon as five or ten years from now, then we should probably expect a culture war that moves from sporadic violence to routine violence, especially in regions where government is unable or unwilling to intervene. (There are a lot more factors at play here and I’ll be sure to provide a comprehensive break down in future blog posts.)

This all sounds pretty pessimistic and, as we’ve seen with prognostications about financial and societal collapse (heaviest from 2007 to 2016), there’s a tendency by many to overstate the conditions and shorten the timeline in anticipation of events that will likely happen much later than predicted. No one can predict the future with any certainty, but we can identify what could occur in the future, and this is one such possibility. Whether it happens in two years or twenty, very significant and persistent socioeconomic conditions are a certainty, which are likely to result in some form of domestic conflict. Our next major hurdles are (1) the period between November’s mid-terms and the 2020 general election, and (2) the next recession, which could rival 2008’s in economic and financial terms, but with the toxic political and cultural climate of today. That’s a good time to revisit this potential future and revise as necessary based on the conditions.

With that as our starting point, the next question is Which systems will be disrupted and how will it affect our communities? We’ll save that for later this month, because for now we’re focusing on intelligence and community security.

A framework for understanding decision-making

We need a framework to understand how decisions are made, and we need to understand what’s necessary for good decision-making. We can make decisions without any information, and unfortunately many people do. Some information may allow us to make better decisions, but ultimately we need intelligence to make good decisions…

Click here to read the entire post.

Forward Observer: Intel, Security, and Defense for Community Preparedness

Forward Observer has a post up about their return to a focus on training communities for disaster preparedness planning rather than the Early Warning briefs they have been posting and emailing. The folks over at Forward Observer have been a real asset to communities trying to prepare for a few years now.  Sam Culper’s SHTF Intelligence book, and the FO Area Intelligence Course are very good tools for learning how to think about what you should be thinking about. At the heart of intelligence is the ability to reduce uncertainty. What intelligence brings to the table is an ability to make well-informed, time-sensitive decisions. Get trained. Get intelligence. Be prepared.

I started this Forward Observer intelligence project in 2016 because I was concerned.

Rising and unsustainable national debt, expanding government authority and the continued loss of individual liberty, the militarization of police, the rise of cultural and economic Marxism, the risk of war with Russia and China, the risk of systems disruption via cyber and financial vulnerabilities — there were lot of things going on that greatly concerned me. And the question I ask is, has any of this really changed in two years?

If nothing else, many of these things are actually worse today and, despite our best hopes and optimism, the trend is set to continue. It’s very conceivable that in another two years, this country is much worse off. An economic recession, a major war, a major cyber attack, an increase in political violence — all these things have a growing likelihood.

I left the U.S. intelligence community in 2012 because I, like many of you, could see the proverbial “writing on the wall”. Considering the threats, I no longer wanted to live in a built-up area. I didn’t want to work for a government that didn’t promote the best interests of the American People. I didn’t want to serve a president who was actively undermining everything I loved about my country. So I left my job as an intelligence analyst and never once regretted it.

A lot of the fears and, at times, panic induced in the emergency preparedness community never came to fruition. Part of that reason is because a lot of the fears were exaggerated, which is why I guide my analysis through the maxim: the more extreme the prediction, the less likely it is to occur. I don’t and have never believed in total economic collapse or complete societal collapse; instead, I believed and still today believe that conditions will continually break down over a period of years until some trigger (like a major recession, some act of significant political violence, or maybe a cyber attack) is the catalyst for parts of the nation to just devolve into active conflict. It may go so slowly that it catches the mainstream by surprise, but even the mainstream is picking up on the idea that we’re moving into a reality where a domestic conflict is conceivable.

And this brings me to the Early Warning. At a meeting yesterday, we brainstormed about how we could best serve our readers in light of what’s probably going to happen in the future. Ultimately, we decided that I need to start writing again about intelligence, security, and defense for community and disaster preparedness planning. If you followed my old blog Guerrillamerica from 2011-2015, then you’re already familiar with the kinds of things I write about: intelligence collection and analysis, reducing uncertainty and navigating an uncertain future, how to build resiliency and security at the community level, and what warfighting will look like during an irregular conflict, like the one I believe we’re heading towards. So in lieu of the daily Early Warning report and email, I’m going to spend my early morning time on something that’s way more valuable, which is teaching these skills and concepts so you can use them in your everyday preparedness planning…

Continue reading at Forward Observer.