Numerous people have asked my thoughts on Virginia. I’ll do a YouTube video on it over the weekend. For now, here are some thoughts.
1. In the 13 December Watch Report, I pointed out that Virginia politicians had done some backpedaling on the concept of gun confiscation. I know the topic is still circulating in the news, but it’s not going to happen the way some people think it is.
There was that article about Governor Ralph Northam mobilizing the National Guard. (A state representative floated this possibility, not the governor himself. Still, it’s unlikely.)
Then there was that article about Governor Ralph Northam cutting off power and cell service during confiscation attempts. (Fake news.)
There’s a LOT of disinformation out there.
2. Here’s what I think is most likely to happen…
The SAME THING that happened in New York and Connecticut — states that floated similar proposals and passed similar laws.
No mass confiscation. No National Guard (many of whom are likely AR-15 owners themselves). No cutting power and cell service for gun owners.
Yes, Northam has scaled back on confiscation, but only to introduce a gun registry scheme that few are going to comply with.
3. 2020 is an election year. No Democrat presidential candidate is going to risk his or her election based on a large number of civilians getting killed over their AR-15s (for now).
With the way pro-Second Amendment groups are organizing, they could build an incredibly violent insurgency in parts of the state. No politician wants to risk that (for now). (Mass confiscation can only come after firearms manufacturers are out of business, by the way. The number of AR-15s, spare parts, magazines, and other accoutrements flooding into the state would be massive.)
4. So I think 2020 will bring Virginia some new gun laws, which could very well be watered down by the time they’re passed.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Virginia rolls out a gun registry program, but I would be incredibly surprised if any meaningful number of Virginians complied. (Same as in New York and Connecticut.)
Democrats are going to keep on changing gun culture by propagandizing young people. If successful, they’ll eventually erode support for “assault weapons” and the gun community will get smaller. Meanwhile, the Democrats will ban the transfer of “assault weapons” through inheritance. That’s going to make confiscation less of a challenge when some citizens are selling back “assault weapons” themselves (peacefully).
The state is likely to impose civil and social costs for being a well-armed citizen. They’ll likely pursue some kind of “gun owner insurance” scheme and/or encourage insurance companies to write in gun-owner provisions that jack up the cost of keeping an “assault weapon” in the home. They’ll try to put gun manufacturers out of business, thus reducing the availability of “assault weapons.” The state of Virginia has to raise the costs of owning “assault weapons.”
These things are not only possible, but LIKELY in the future.
And, yes, I’m sure there will be an increase in red flags where the state of Virginia curbs Second Amendment rights of some citizens over the risk of “imminent threats.” The goal for the state is to characterize these enforcement actions as “common sense,” like targeting gun owners who pose a “clear and present danger” to themselves or others. The evidence of “clear and present danger” could well be manufactured (“anonymous tips,” etc.).
What’s uncertain is exactly how, when, and where pro-Second Amendment groups will react to red flag laws in the future. There very well could be instances where gun rights activists impede or attempt to impede extreme risk protective orders from being carried out. Those instances could lead to bloodshed.
So what’s more likely in the near future is the shooting death of a gun owner at his own home during a red flag search, which could initiate a cascade of political violence (i.e., The Boogaloo/The Big Igloo/The Hootenanny).
What’s unlikely in the near future is bands of masked law enforcement and/or soldiers going door to door, doing mass confiscation while your power and cell phone service is down.
The situation is still developing. And politicians know that the groundswell of peaceful pro-gun activism is backed up by something harder. That’s why in the near term they’re most likely to try and erode support for “assault weapons” and legislate them out of existence, as opposed to confiscate everyone’s AR-15s… for now.
These are my thoughts. I hope you’ve found them helpful.