Forward Observer: One Week Until D-Day

Intelligence analyst Sam Culper at Forward Observer sends this short reminder. Forward Observer provides tactical and operational intelligence on the groups driving civil unrest and domestic conflict. They just hired a new analyst to the team and are ramping up production ahead of what they are calling the “Royal Rumble”. If you’re concerned about the country’s slow descent into domestic conflict, and want the ground truth during the upcoming violence and disruption between November and January, then you can join Forward Observer. Subscribe here and get access to Forward Observer’s intelligence reporting.

I’ve followed Professor Peter Turchin for several years. He’s a scientist who studies history and uses models to forecast conflicts.

For the past 10 years, he’s been warning that 2020 would be a turbulent year in American history.

In a recent article co-authored for a think tank, Turchin writes, “The social system that we live in is extremely fragile.”

The domestic conflict has already started, he continues, “[b]ut worse likely lies ahead.” Turchin describes the conflict as “the turbulent twenties”.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise to long time readers. Our Low Intensity Conflict likely started in 2016, and maybe as far back as the 2008 financial crisis.

I started writing my intelligence report on a weekly basis in 2016 because I was very confident that domestic conditions would worsen to the point of armed conflict.

After spending three years in Iraq and Afghanistan as an intelligence NCO and contractor, I knew I had what it took to track a domestic conflict.

There’s one week before the election. I can’t say for certain that we’ll see armed political violence in the coming days, but I’m certain that politically-related killings will continue.

This low intensity conflict is not going to end in November, or December, or January.

This conflict is going to rage for years.

Here at FO, to stay on top of developing conditions, we’re adding regional forums, expanding our daily podcast, and introducing a new line of intelligence products starting in early November.

You won’t be disappointed. But if you are, you can cancel your free 7-day trial anytime you like.

Stay ahead of the curve with our reporting. Subscribe here.

Until next time, be well and stay out front.


Always Out Front,

Samuel Culper