Forward Observer: December Update on Low Intensity Conflict

Intelligence analyst Sam Culper at Forward Observer has his own take on the current US political situation. Unlike NC Scout’s take which we posted yesterday, Sam Culper doesn’t see two competing Presidents come January, but he does see low intensity conflict worsening.

December Update on Low Intensity Conflict

It’s been a while since I sent out a Dispatch, so I wanted to give everyone an update on how I see things now and where we’re headed next.

First, the Most Dangerous Course of Action didn’t materialize. Although there have been numerous skirmishes between Trump supporters and Leftist groups, we saw nothing on the level of the popular revolution that was being fomented in response to a Trump win.

I have concerns over how the bean counting played out. If signature matching requirements were enforced, then we might be looking at a second term for President Trump. The fact that it didn’t happen in key states is a testament to the politicization of “free and fair” elections; a condition which will hang over the future.

There’s some talk about President Trump “crossing the Rubicon” to stay in office. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and at this point the odds don’t favor Trump being president after 20 January 2021, despite ongoing and adamant prognostications to the contrary.

So where does that leave us? Is the era of low intensity conflict over?

No. In fact, I think we’re just getting started. Here are three reasons.

1. Given what we know about Biden/Harris policies, continued political, social, and economic turmoil is likely. At a minimum, the Right will pick up where they left off under Obama. There have already been a few calls for secession. Throw in the possibility that Democrats take a Senate majority in Georgia’s special election next month, and calls for secession may again boil into movements. A resurgence of militia and Three Percent activity, some of which died down after Trump was elected, is likely to return. In short, a Biden administration will be no better than a third Obama term, and could be significantly worse, especially on gun control policies and changing ATF regulations.

2. The Biden victory emboldened the Leftist cultural revolution. With at least five new socialist members of Congress, the Far Left political insurgency will expand, and the march through commercial and social institutions will accelerate. The American identity will continue to change, as “New America” — racially, ethnically, and religiously diverse; socially progressive; and a mix of economically social-capitalist or socialist — continues to redefine the country away from predominantly European, Christian, and capitalist “Old America”. We’ll see every attempt to permanently redefine “fundamental American values” as the cultural revolution cements this new national identity. We’ve seen this kind of tectonic shift in American society three times before: the lead up to the American Revolution, the lead up to the Civil War, and during the Civil Rights Era. In two of the three instances, tectonic shifts in society led to earthquakes of armed conflict. We’re experiencing a fourth shift right now, which is likely to last through the decade.

3. Lastly, anarchist, socialist, and communist revolutionary groups proliferated under the Trump administration. The number and membership of armed Leftist groups has grown exponentially over the past four years, as have unarmed activist groups. We saw this most recently during the Shutdown D.C. effort, whose organizers were planning to stage a people’s revolution against President Trump’s second term. Meanwhile, armed Leftist groups have made significant advancements in their capabilities. Just a few years ago, we’d see pictures of Leftists armed with a shotgun or Grandpa’s bolt-action rifle. Today, we’re seeing AR-15s with appropriate optics, IFAKs, body armor, radios, and other equipment. Record purchases of firearms and ammunition is no longer being driven only by the Right. There’s also been a number of military veterans, to include former special operations soldiers, joining armed Leftist groups as instructors, mentors, and/or active participants. While the number and size of armed Leftist groups remains relatively small compared to armed Right Wing groups, the growth and level of advancement in just a few years is worth nothing. Most importantly, though, Leftist groups have been building the intelligence, communications, and logistics networks required for sustained conflict. Developing networks takes time and expertise, and Leftist groups are currently far outpacing the Right in this realm. This would become a strategic advantage if the current low intensity conflict were to heat up.

For these three reasons, I see low intensity conflict continuing well into this decade. And we haven’t gotten into my economic expectations, which will drive class conflict and likely lead to substantial changes in the financial environment and monetary policy. This is going to be a big, important decade for U.S. history.

That’s an incredibly abbreviated version of some of the trends I’m tracking. If you’re concerned about the future, and you want clear, accurate expectations of the future, then subscribe to my Early Warning service. My daily reports save you time because we report only on what matters and what’s happening in the future.

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Until next time, be well.