Burning Platform: 2019 From a Fourth Turning Perspective

William Strauss and Neil Howe (both historians, among other things) wrote a book in 1997 called The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy — What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny — which introduced what is now called Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. According to that theory, there is a four stage cycles of eras, called turnings, which repeat in cycles of approximately 80-100 years, the fourth of which is the Crisis turning, an era of destruction and revolution. The theory has its critics as well as proponents, so, as with everything, use your think-thingy. The following is an excerpt from a lengthy article on The Burning Platform titled 2019 From a Fourth Turning Perspective, which gives some overview of the theory and applies it to world and US events.

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

Image result for budget impasse trump schumer

Strauss and Howe wrote their book in 1996. They were not trying to be prophets of doom, but observers of history able to connect events through human life cycles of 80 or so years. Using critical thinking skills and identifying the most likely triggers for crisis: debt, civic decay, and global disorder, they were able to anticipate scenarios which could drive the next crisis, which they warned would arrive in the mid-2000 decade. The scenario described above is fairly close to the current situation, driven by the showdown between Trump and the Democrats regarding the border wall.

It has not reached the stage where all hell breaks loose, but if it extends until the end of January and food stamp money is not distributed to 40 million people (mostly in urban ghettos) all bets are off. The likelihood of this scenario is small, but there are numerous potential triggers which could still make 2019 go down in history as a year to remember.

As we enter the eleventh year of this Fourth Turning, the fourth Crisis period in U.S. history, the mood of U.S. citizens and citizens around the globe continues to darken. Fourth Turnings are driven by generational configuration and the emotional reaction to events by the Prophet generation leaders, Nomad generation spearheads, and Hero generation cannon fodder.

As we close out this year, stock markets are gyrating wildly, central bankers are trying to reverse their nine years of interventionist strategies to sustain the establishment, civil chaos spreads across the European continent, saber rattling between the U.S., Russia and China increases, the animosity between political parties reaches new heights, the Deep State relentlessly pursues their Mueller led coup against Trump, mega-social media corporations tighten their grip on free speech by silencing conservatives, leftists push their socialist, open borders, normalizing degeneracy agenda, and global recession gains momentum as trade declines and global debt reaches unserviceable levels…

Click here to read the entire article at The Burning Platform.

Patriotman on American Partisan has his own take on the article, The Fourth Turning & The Future, As I See It:

…I think that the article was very closely aligned with my fears. The biggest threats we face as a country are all intertwined (thus, don’t consider this a ranked list) and are: civil unrest due to a growing divide between ideologies, economic slowdowns due to massive debt and employment trends, and outside challenge of the unipolar world by China and Russia.

I don’t think that any of these are the causation for the others, but if I was forced to choose it would be the differing of ideologies that is driving the other two. The urban and rural divide has always been present obviously, but the obvious disconnect between the coastal elites in their ivory towers and those in the hinterlands seems unsolvable at the moment. The problem mostly lies with the former as the latter would like nothing more than for everyone to be left alone by everyone else. It is the liberal elites who insist on forcing their culture, norms, and ideology on those conservatives in rural America and continually try to remake the system in their permanent favor. They attack our religion, our culture, and our lifestyle because they do not approve of it…

 

 

Emergency Essentials: Financial Preparedness

The fine folks over at Emergency Essentials have a brief blog post on preparing to weather financial storms.

For those of us who are old enough to have experienced the Great Recession in our adult life, the thought of another economic crash occurring is a very real worry. Even the most prepared individuals felt the effects of a crashing economy in the years between 2007 and 2009. Some of us still haven’t fully recovered. Although the possibility of another recession is always in the air, unfortunately, most people are less prepared today than they were before the Great Recession began. If the economy were to crash tomorrow, could your finances survive?

If the answer is, “I’m not sure”, you should definitely continue reading. In the following post, we will present five questions to test your financial preparedness and help you to get completely ready for an unexpected economic future.

Do You Spend Too Much On Your Debts?

Truth is, many people are simply overextended with their debts, using their credit as a way to live beyond their comfortable means. Even in an economic recession, your debts will not stop and your debtors likely won’t “give you a break.” If you lost your job today, would you be able to afford your debts next month or would you suddenly find yourself having a hard time keeping up with your mortgage and car note?

Many financial consultants recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 1:3. This means that your debts should be equal to or less than 33% of your monthly income. This rule ensures that if you were to become unemployed today, you would still be able maintain your debts with only ⅓ of your current income.

What To Do About It

Assess your monthly debts and compare them to your monthly income. If your debt-to-income ratio is already lower than 33%, great, keep it that way. On the other hand, if you find that your ratio is higher than this, here is some advice:

  • Pay Down Your Debts: The most obvious way of decreasing your debt-to-income ratio is to maintain your income, while decreasing your debts. Examine how you spend your money each month. Identify areas where you can save money (eliminate or decrease cable services, etc.) and use this extra money to make additional payments on your debts. Every debt that you are able to eliminate equates to one less worry in the event of another economic recession!
  • Refinance for Better Interest Rates: High interest rates that you carry on your debts can add significantly to your debt-to-income percentage. Work on improving your credit so that you can refinance your mortgage and car loan debts for better rates. Speak with banks and other credit card providers to see if one of them will offer you a credit card with a lower interest rate than what you are currently receiving.

How Large Is Your Emergency Fund?

Unfortunately, for many people, the answer is “not large, whatsoever.” According to a GoBankingRates survey, 35% of all adults in the U.S. only have “several hundred dollars” in their savings account and 34% have no money at all in savings. It is generally recommended that you keep 3-6 months of income in your savings as a safety net, in case your income becomes restricted for any reason. While this is a great start, is it enough? The Great Recession lasted two whole years, and the effects, much longer. During this recession, many people found themselves without a job for much longer than 3-6 months. Some financial advisors, like Suze Orman for example, suggest an emergency fund equal to at least 8 months of your income.

What To Do About It…

Click here to continue reading at beprepared.com.

Related:

FEMA: Emergency Financial First Aid Kit (pdf)

Emergency Essentials: Financial Preparedness 101