Military Strategy Magazine: Civil War Comes to the West

David Betz is Professor of War in the Modern World in the Department of War Studies, King’s College London where he heads the MA War Studies program. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He has written a two part article for Military Strategy Magazine on the high risk of civil war coming to a Western European countries or the United States, estimating that the chances of a civil war breaking out in one of these countries in the near future is 87-95%. Civil War Comes to the West and Civil War Comes the West, Part II: Strategic Realities. It’s a rather lengthy read, but worth your time. Here is a brief excerpt;

…At this point in the history of conflict, it hardly seems necessary to explain the techniques of taking existing social divisions in society and tearing them into chasms because they have been widely studied.[xx] The defence establishments of the West are very familiar with such matters as they have presented themselves in the varied foreign theatres in which they have been embroiled as part of the so-called War on Terror.

Is it a complete wonder that those lessons and ideas should have found their way back home? The Citizen’s Guide to Fifth Generation Warfare co-written by MGEN Michael Flynn, former head of the Defence Intelligence Agency and President Trump’s initial National Security Advisor, is a well-designed handbook and explicit in its aim, which is to educate people in the West about revolt. In his own words, he wrote it because ‘I never dreamed the greatest battles to be waged would be right here in our homeland against subversive elements of our own government.’[xxi]

Over the last thirty years the West has preoccupied itself thanklessly in an expeditionary capacity in the invertebrate civil wars of others. It ought to have learned that it is impossible to maintain an integrated multi-valent society once neighbours start kidnapping each other’s children and murdering them with hand drills, blowing up each other’s cultural events, slaying each other’s teachers and religious leaders, and tearing down their icons. It is soberingly worth noting, moreover, that plenty of instances of all those things have occurred already in the West and all of them have occurred in France alone in the last five years.[xxii]

Scenarios, mostly focused on the United States, of what civil wars in the West would look like exist in the literature.[xxiii] They tend to share one thing in common particularly, which is the expectation as expressed by Peter Mansoor, professor of military history at Ohio State University, that they will,

…not be like the first [American] civil war, with armies manoeuvring on the battlefield [but] would very much be a free-for-all, neighbour-on-neighbour, based on beliefs and skin colour and religion. And it would be horrific.[xxiv]

Approximately 75 per cent of post-Cold War civil conflicts have been fought by ethnic factions.[xxv] Therefore, that civil war in the West will be likewise is unexceptional. The nature of the belief that Mansoor invokes as being important is, however, worth dwelling upon. I would suggest that the belief in question is the acceptance by all groups in society of the precepts of ‘identity politics’.

Identity politics may be defined as politics in which people having a particular racial, religious, ethnic, social, or cultural identity tend to promote their own specific interests or concerns without regard to the interests or concerns of any larger political group. It is overtly post-national. It is this above all that makes civil conflict in the West not merely likely but practically inevitable, in my view…

Meeting, Oct. 3, 2024

The next meeting will be held on Thursday, Oct. 3rd at 6:30 p.m. in the Patriot Barn at 22202 N Hinzerling, Prosser. There will be soup and bread served, but feel free to bring a dessert or side dish. 

This will be a prepping show and tell meeting, so bring any gear that you’d like to show, Baofeng radio that you’d like to be programmed, or any reports or updates on current issues that you’d like to share with the group.

August 2024 Meeting, Thursday 29th

The August meeting will be held on the evening of Thursday, Aug. 29th at 6:30pm in the Patriot Barn at 22202 N. Hinzerling, Prosser.

Please bring your handheld radio if you have one. Hopefully we will have some additional radios for sale if you don’t have one.

Tenth Amendment Center: Benjamin Franklin on How to Lose an Empire

Michael Boldin at Tenth Amendment Center writes Benjamin Franklin: How to Lose an Empire.

“Empires, by Pride & Folly & Extravagance, ruin themselves like Individuals.”

Benjamin Franklin certainly understood history.

He had witnessed it unfold.

In fact, he predicted the unraveling of the British Empire.

Featuring some of his best satire and sharpest wit, Benjamin Franklin published an article in The Public Advertiser on September 11, 1773. In Rules By Which A Great Empire May Be Reduced To A Small One,”  Franklin explained the colonies’ grievances to a British audience, predicting the policies would lead to the downfall of the empire. 

With tongue firmly planted in cheek, Franklin satirically wrote the essay as an instruction manual on how to lose an empire.

Much of it sounds pretty familiar to the situation we face now – once again living under the largest government in history.

For instance, Franklin said one key to losing an empire is to bar the people or the states from defending against foreign enemies at their borders. Here’s how Franklin put it.

“If any Colony should at their own Charge erect a Fortress to secure their Port against the Fleets of a foreign Enemy, get your Governor to betray that Fortress into your Hands.”

And if that’s not enough, add a little gun control for good measure.

“If they should have lodged in such Fortress the very Arms they bought and used to aid you in your Conquests, seize them all, ’twill provoke like Ingratitude added to Robbery.”

Franklin’s sarcasm and wit, possibly unmatched by any writer of his time, hammered home the big point.

“One admirable Effect of these Operations will be, to discourage every other Colony from erecting such Defences, and so their and your Enemies may more easily invade them, to the great Disgrace of your Government, and of course the Furtherance of your Project.”

As you read through Franklin’s list of colonial grievances couched in satiric language, you find that they went far beyond “taxation without representation.” 

That’s not to say taxation wasn’t part of the formula. 

Franklin wrote that one pathway to losing an empire is to tax your subjects into oblivion and to “never regard the heavy burdens those remote People already undergo.”

You can make the arbitrary taxation more grievous “by public Declarations importing that your Power of taxing them has no Limits,” Franklin wrote. 

This will probably weaken every Idea of Security in their Property, and convince them that under such a Government they have nothing they can call their own; which can scarce fail of producing the happiest Consequences!

And if you want to make the taxes even more odious, “send from the Capital a Board of Officers to superintend the Collection, composed of the most indiscreet, ill-bred and insolent you can find.” 

Sounds pretty familiar, doesn’t it?!

But wait, there’s more!

As you tax the people, tell them you’re taking their money to “protect” them, but then make it the ultimate grift – lie to them and just waste it instead.

“If it [a tax] was originally appropriated for the Defence of the Provinces and the better Support of Government, and the Administration of Justice where it may be necessary, then apply none of it to that Defence.”

Then use that money to buy off political support.

As Franklin explained, “bestow it where it is not necessary,” to pay big salaries and pensions to government officials and their cronies.

On top of taxes, Franklin recommended piling on burdensome regulations. 

“Perplex their Commerce with infinite Regulations impossible to be remembered and observed; ordain Seizures of their Property for every Failure; take away the Trial of such Property by Jury, and give it to arbitrary Judges of your own appointing.”

Meanwhile, no matter how peacefully your Colonies have submitted to your Government, oversee it with a massive militarized force ready to put down any opposition with violence.

Franklin advised, “Suppose them always inclined to revolt, and treat them accordingly.” You do this by quartering troops among them “who by their Insolence may provoke the rising of Mobs, and by their Bullets and Bayonets suppress them.

“By this Means, like the Husband who uses his Wife ill from Suspicion, you may in Time convert your Suspicions into Realities.”

If you want to lose an empire, it’s always a good idea to treat people unfairly.

Take special Care the Provinces are never incorporated with the Mother Country, that they do not enjoy the same common Rights, the same Privileges in Commerce, and that they are governed by severer Laws, all of your enacting, without allowing them any Share in the Choice of the Legislators.

On top of all this, assert the power over the people “IN ALL CASES WHATSOEVER.” (a direct reference to the hated Declaratory Act)

This will “convince them, that they are at present under a Power something like that spoken of in the Scriptures, which can not only kill their Bodies, but damn their Souls to all Eternity, by compelling them, if it pleases, to worship the Devil.”

Of course, your subjects will complain when saddled with these burdens. The key is to Ignore every complaint and change nothing.

“To confirm these Impressions, and strike them deeper, whenever the Injured come to the Capital with Complaints of Mal-administration, Oppression, or Injustice, punish such Suitors with long Delay, enormous Expence, and a final Judgment in Favour of the Oppressor.

All of these, and more, should sound at least a little familiar. It’s a lot like what the federal government is doing to all of us today. 

Ultimately, all these are actions of a tyrant. 

For Benjamin Franklin, as he later proposed for the great seal of the United States, the people should never just sit idly by and take it:

“Rebellion to Tyrants is obedience to God.”

Tenth Amendment Center: Eight Essential Principles Behind the 2nd Amendment

Tenth Amendment Center founder Michael Boldin writes Eight Essential Principles Behind the 2nd Amendment.

There is only one thing the ATF is authorized to do under the Constitution.

Disband!

This may sound like hyperbole, but when you understand the following eight essential principles from the founders behind the Second Amendment, this becomes completely clear.

First, the right to keep and bear arms is a natural right. In View of the Constitution of the United States, St George Tucker wrote, “The Right to Self Defense is the first law of nature,” and he called it “the true palladium of liberty.”

In other words, you have the right to defend yourself simply because you exist.

Samuel Adams made a similar assertion decades earlier, saying “Among the natural rights of the colonists are these: First, a right to life; secondly to liberty; Thirdly, to property; together with the right to support and defend them in the best manner they can.

It follows from this that the Second Amendment isn’t your “gun permit.” You don’t need government permission to exercise a natural right. In effect, you are your own gun permit.

This leads to a third key point: every federal gun law is unconstitutional. 

All of them, past, present, and future – without exception.

Theophilus Parsons said, “No power was given to Congress to infringe on any one of the natural rights of the people.” [Emphasis added]

The Second Amendment was intended to clarify this point, explicitly stating that the right to keep and bear arms “shall not be infringed.”

Even though the Second Amendment was only intended to restrict the actions of the federal government, state and local restrictions on firearms also violate your individual, natural rights. As Mercy Otis Warren put it, “Self-defense is a primary law of nature, which no subsequent law of society can abolish.” [Emphasis added]

James Wilson echoed the same idea, writing, “The defense of oneself, justly called the primary law of nature, is not, nor can it be abrogated by any regulation of municipal law.” [Emphasis added]

So why do we even have a Second Amendment?

The founders cited four primary reasons.

  • It helps promote the individual, natural right of self-defense. 
  • It guarantees the states a militia power of their own to balance the military power of the federal government. – in other words, it prevents the need for large, permanent standing armies
  •  It was adopted to support the people defending against foreign invasion.
  •  Defense against domestic tyrants.

This raises the sixth key point. To fulfill the purposes of the Second Amendment, the people need to have the weapons necessary to get the job done. In other words, it’s not just about “muskets.” To render a standing army unnecessary, the people have to have military arms.

Tench Coxe pointed out that the people have the right to every type of weapon common to a soldier.

“Their swords, and every other terrible implement of the soldier, are the birth-right of an American.” [Emphasis added]

Coxe’s view should come as no surprise. The Revolutionary War had ended only five years earlier. If the colonists had not possessed military-style weapons, they would have lost the war.

James Madison alluded to this in Federalist #46, as he pointed out that a well-armed citizenry can protect themselves against an overreaching government. 

“It may well be doubted, whether a militia thus circumstanced could ever be conquered by such a proportion of regular troops. Those who are best acquainted with the last successful resistance of this country against the British arms, will be most inclined to deny the possibility of it.”

More generally, the seventh key point is that the founders viewed disarming the people as tyranny

During the Virginia ratifying convention, George Mason gave a history lesson, reminding the delegates that “an artful man, who was governor of Pennsylvania” advised Parliament “to disarm the people; that it was the best and most effectual way to enslave them.

Mason continued, nothing that “they should not do it openly, but weaken them, and let them sink gradually, by totally disusing and neglecting the militia.”

Noah Webster expressed a similar view, writing, “Before a standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed.

Standing armies were anathema to the founding generation, and many Second Amendment supporters miss the point that a well-armed populace mitigates the need for one.

St. George Tucker made this connection clear.

“Wherever standing armies are kept up, and when the right of the people to keep and bear arms is, under any color or pretext whatsoever, prohibited, liberty, if not already annihilated, is on the brink of destruction.”

Finally, we will never protect our right to self-defense and to keep and bear arms by getting on our knees and begging the government to stop violating it. As Thomas Jefferson put it“A free people claim their rights as derived from the laws of nature, and not as a gift of their chief magistrate.”

During the North Carolina ratifying convention, James Iredell who was one of the first Supreme Court justices said“The only resource against usurpation is the inherent right of the people to prevent its exercise.”

Roger Sherman made a similar point during a debate in the House of Representatives. 

“It is the privilege of every citizen, and one of his most essential rights, to bear arms, and to resist every attack upon his liberty or property, by whomsoever made.”

Putting these eight points together, it all boils down to this: The only way to protect your rights is to exercise them whether the government wants you to, or not. 

Before you go, a quick bonus point. 

As Thomas Jefferson advised his 15 year old nephew Peter Carr, it’s essential for young people to be well-armed and trained too. He wrote, “As to the species of exercise, I advise the gun.”

“While this gives a moderate exercise to the body, it gives boldness, enterprise, and independence to the mind. Games played with the ball, and others of that nature, are too violent for the body, and stamp no character on the mind. Let your gun therefore be the constant companion on your walks.”

Daily Caller: Federal Court Strikes ATF Ban on Reset Triggers

From Daily Caller, Pro-Gun Group Secures Big Win Over ATF In Federal Court

A federal court on Tuesday struck down a ban imposed by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) on reset triggers.

The ruling comes as the result of a lawsuit filed by The National Association for Gun Rights (NAGR). U.S. District Judge Reed O’Connor “vacated” the agency’s ban on the devices, arguing that it had overstepped its authority when it redefined forced reset triggers as machine guns, according to a press release from NAGR.

A forced reset trigger (FRT) is a firearm component that allows the trigger to reset more quickly than a regular trigger by forcing it back to its starting position after it is fired. The mechanism enables a shooter to fire multiple shots at a faster rate without converting the weapon into a fully automatic firearm.

The court’s ruling was influenced by the Supreme Court’s decision against the agency’s bump stock ban

The ATF “engaged in unlawful agency action taken in excess of their authority,” according to the court’s ruling, emphasizing that they did so by “redefining the statutory definition” of a “machinegun.”

The judge asserted that FRTs do not meet the statutory definition of machine guns because a firearm equipped with the device “must still reset after each round is fired and must separately function to release the hammer by moving far enough to the rear in order to fire the next round.”(article continues)

Benton County Candidate Forum, July 30, 2024

Patriot Barn, Prosser, WA

The Benton County Republican Party will be holding a candidate forum on July 30, 2024 at the Patriot Barn 22202 N Hinzerling Rd in Prosser at 6:30 p.m. More candidates than originally expected will be on hand, so it should be a pretty good group.

Please put this date on your calendar! 

Click this link for a flyer of GOP endorsed candidates in Washington.

T-REX 2024 – July 19, 20, 21

The AmRRON annual training exercise (T-REX) runs this weekend, July 19-21, 2024. Drill messages begin today.

From AmRRON:

THE SCENARIO:

This year’s simulation exercise will be based on a double-pronged attack on the critical infrastructure of the United States and its allies, primarily and initially using a complex cyber attack. Additionally, just like last year, the scenario will include saboteurs from the fictional country, Maoistan, who have infiltrated into the United States through Mexico and Canada over the previous several months.  Their mission is to disrupt critical communications and power grid infrastructures by attacking physical sites, as well as other disruptive peripheral operations.

THE TIMELINE:

Simulated grid-down dates:  Friday, July 19th (19:00 Zulu) through July 21st (19:00 Zulu)

For help converting ZULU time to your Local Time, there are numerous online conversion tools.  Here’s one example!

  • Zulu Time Zone  19:00Z (7:00 pm)
    • Eastern Time, EDT  15:00 (3:00)
    • Central Time, CDT  14:00 (2:00)
    • Mountain Time, MDT  13:00 (1:00 pm)
    • Pacific Time, PDT  12:00 noon
    • Anchorage,  AK  11:00 am
    • Hawaii-Aleutian Daylight Time 10:00 am HDT

Lead-up Timeline:  Keep checking amrron.com for updates, which will become more frequent in the days and weeks leading up to the exercise.  We will post ‘Breaking News’ updates to our WIWT NEWS (What-if It Were True) T-REX News page on or about July 1st.

PARTICIPATION:

Anyone can participate!  Don’t have comms yet?  You can simulate shutting your phone, power, and internet off and practice your preparedness plan, cook your food off grid, conduct first-aid training, practice using your water filters, test your solar battery lights.  Use your imagination.

Individuals and Groups.   Whether you’re an individual person going solo, or a family, church group, preparedness group, militia, county-wide network, etc., this is a great opportunity for you to simulate a gid-down emergency situation.  Make up your own sub scenarios that are relevant to your own situation, practice your bugout  or bug IN plan.  Host preparedness training for the weekend (your home, church, VFW hall, etc.) giving updates to the group as news, information, and intelligence is received from the ongoing nets;  Discuss what you would do if the news you received was real, or impacts or action items for your family or group.

The primary focus of the exercise is emergency communications.  How would you get news and information in a grid-down emergency?  Learn how you can stay informed, even if you’re not licensed, or don’t have HF (High Frequency/shortwave) transmitting capabilities.  Here are some resources:

https://amrron.com/2022/01/13/how-to-receive-net-traffic-and-nwotw-if-not-an-hf-station/embed/#?secret=Ahig3SgPaa#?secret=9yfGX8y7C8

And also the latest video on how to receive HF communications, even if you’re not a licensed ham!

Communicators:  This is a chance for you to practice using your communications equipment to stay informed and inform others.  Put your gear and skills to the test and take notes on needed improvements.  Did you have the right software, the signal operating instructions, the custom AmRRON forms, adequate power supply, etc.?

For the best experience, be sure to get a copy of the AmRRON SOI (Signals Operating Instructions) VERSION 5.0.