Forward Observer: Two Things Leading to Conflict in America

From intelligence analyst Sam Culper of Forward Observer:

Two big things leading to conflict in America…

Bottom Line Up Front: Pre-revolutionary Cuba and America’s likely future have something in common.

I’ve jumped into a new book about the conditions before the Cuban Revolution. The beginning of the book is about the factors that led to the Marxist revolution, which lasted from 1953-1959.

A brief summary: Under Batista, Cuba saw political reform and economic advancement. Batista left after decades in power, then corruption and stagnation began creeping back to Cuba. Batista came back in 1952 to run for president again, seized power via coup d’etat, suspended the constitution, and obstructed the ability of one Fidel Castro to be elected to the Cuban Congress.

Declaring that Batista was a fascist dictator, Fidel and Friends set about on revolution.

Citing one important point before the revolution began, here’s a quote from the book:

“… Cuban society over the years appears to have generated some degree of dissatisfaction…

The aspirations of members of the middle class for a standard of living and social status commensurate with their education… were continually frustrated by two obstacles:

The success of the upper class in maintaining its wealth and political power, and the inability of the Cuban economy to provide ‘adequate’ employment and other opportunities especially for the members of the professional middle class.”

I’ll unpack some thoughts…

1. A common complaint on the Left (and a growing one on the Right) is that America has become a de facto oligarchy where the rules of the country are largely written by the wealthiest people.

These people, after all, have the most to lose, so it stands to reason that they lobby the federal government for rules that benefit them the most.

This is the first thing that pre-revolutionary Cuba and the United States have in common. (This is exactly what’s enabled the current socialist political insurgency we see today.)

2. If we’re to believe the predictions of job displacement due to advances in automation, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, then we arrive at the conclusion that tens of millions of Americans — some 25 percent of the country — will have their jobs replaced in the coming decades. (Sure, some jobs will be created, but will they be created fast enough to make up for all those displaced workers? Unlikely. Can displaced workers find new skills and careers? I’ll answer below.)

So what will these tens of millions of Americans do for work? Let’s take trucker drivers, for instance. It’s the most popular job in 29 states. The age of the average truck driver is 45. They’re too young to retire and too old to re-skill. (Plus, the data on those reskilling programs is pretty bleak. Very low success rate.)

Yet, their industry is about to be turned on its head due to automated driving. And it’s not just truck drivers — there’s a host of menial and professional jobs that will be replaced by robots in the coming years and decades.

So we could very well have an economy that doesn’t provide ‘adequate’ employment and other opportunities for tens of millions of Americans, starting with low skill and moving into high skill professional occupations.

That’s the second thing that America will have in common with pre-revolutionary Cuba.

My conclusion isn’t that we’re going to have a national Marxist revolution, a la Fidel, Che, et. al.

My conclusion is that these two economic trends are going to lead to conflict. (They already are.) Many of today’s billionaires are warning about a bottom-up revolt against the ruling class. It’s coming.

Are you prepared?

Forward Observer: New Predictions of “Civil War”

This short piece of today’s Forward Observer Dispatch and intelligence analyst Sam Culper:

Combing through my daily read file today, I came across an interesting piece of information.

According to a Georgetown University survey, 7 in 10 Americans say that the country is “on the edge of civil war.”

The executive director of the institute that conducted the Battleground Poll Civility survey says that the climate is going to make the 2020 election “a sort of race to the bottom, or has the potential to be a race to the bottom.”

That’s not news, but it’s continuing evidence to support the take that a large portion of Americans are uneasy about the country’s future.

There are lots of predictions that impeachment is going to cause massive civil unrest.

As I covered in one of my Early Warning reports this week, there’s solid evidence to suggest that left wing activists will push mass mobilization during the impeachment process to pressure the Senate to remove President Trump from office. Bottom line: you should expect mass mobilization of activists and protestors across the country.

If you share the concern that civil unrest will surround the impeachment process, here’s the absolute first thing I’d do…

LOOK LOCALLY.

Identify the left wing and right wing activist groups that operate in your area, or the areas closest to you. Make a list.

If left wing activists mobilize to conduct protest activities ranging from civil disobedience to ‘direct action,’ then you can expect some disruption to take place.

That disruption may include the blocking of key bridges and intersections, commercial and worker strikes, student walk outs, the harassment of Trump supporters or other Republicans, and potentially political violence…