Twitter Suspends Second Amendment Foundation Account

From Truth About Guns:

SAF Twitter account suspended

The Second Amendment Foundation along with the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms are holding their annual Gun Rights Policy Conference in Phoenix this weekend (TTAG will be there). So…just in time for the gun rights orgs’ biggest event of the year, the pasty-faced geeks at Twitter have seen fit to suspend SAF’s social media account.

We talked to SAF founder Alan Gottlieb who had this to say:

We’re shocked. In all our years on Twitter, our account has never been suspended and we have no idea what we allegedly did to bring this about. It’s interesting that it’s happened right before the Gun Rights Policy Conference this weekend.

Yes it is. Does that sound paranoid? Maybe. But just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t really out to get you…

Wales Prepares for Brexit

As the Welsh are the most stolid and practical UK citizens, the Welsh government is leading the way in preparing for the UK’s exit from the EU (aka Brexit). The government of Wales recently published a preparedness planning document for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. While the document is mainly aimed at apprising citizens of the actions the government is taking, it also lays out some probably effects Brexit would have on people so that they can make their own preparations. As some people have wondered just what the dangers are of a Brexit that one would get worked up over, here are some excerpts:

  • Major transport disruption for people and goods at the borders. As additional checks are required once the UK is no longer part of the Single Market and Customs Union. This is particularly significant at the Northern Ireland/Ireland border, the Channel crossings and atsea ports, including in Wales, where the role of Welsh ports is key to trade  with Ireland. There is also potential for delays at airports. Any delays could have significant knock-on impacts on the wider transport network, for example requiring “stack” operations on major highways and roads to ports. A number of the economic and other risks outlined below are linked to the critical issue of ensuring a smooth flow of goods through major ports–any delays could cause issues for the availability of some (fresh) food products and medicines and have a damaging impact on some trade sectors. The recently released Yellowhammer assumptions suggest a reduction to the flow rate to 40% to 60% of current levels of goods moving across borders compared to current levels if there is no mitigation. This could last up to three month safter exit day before it improves to around 50-70%.
  • Welsh Government has secured agreement for a UK-wide table top exercise, to test the co-ordinated response for the disruption to food supply and the potential public response, scheduled for the end of September.
  • Local authorities have been assured they would be able to continue to provide food in schools in the event of a no deal Brexit. But menus may need to be revised, although healthy eating in schools will be maintained
  • Contingency plans are in place to mitigate the risks of disruption to water supply chemicals.
  • Economic turmoil. The potential for major disruption to international trade (particularly, but not only, with the EU) impacting on exporting businesses, import supply chains and inward investment, could risk the sustainability of some businesses and have a negative impact on jobs and wages. This could be compounded by workforce impacts (see below). We are already feeling the consequences of a weaker economy as a result of three years’ of Brexit uncertainty –the Bank of England has estimated households are £1,000 worse off every year as a result of Brexit, compared to before the EU referendum. Some further impacts could happen very quickly after exit day, with some emerging over time. There is likely to be a further fall in the value of the pound relative to other currencies–Sterling has fallen markedly in value since the referendum and as the prospect of a no deal Brexit has intensified. This could, over time, translate into rising inflation on some products and lower economic growth
  • Some of the above factors, individually or in combination, could become too acute to manage locally. In that case, it may be necessary to assess the issue and treat it as a civil contingency

So, only things like food, water, medicine, jobs, and money may be materially affected. Minor stuff. Other information for Welsh preparing for Brexit can be found at the following websites:

https://gov.wales/preparing-wales

https://llyw.cymru/paratoi-cymru

 

Gatestone Institute: A View of the U.S. from Across the Atlantic

This brief article was written by Andrew Ash of the UK for the Gatestone Institute – A View of the U.S. from Across the Atlantic. Within, Ash reveals his growing interest in American politics; growing because of its apparent corruption and secrecy.

…Compared to the almost polite political rivalry between voters and parties in Britain, the political division in the US began looking distinctly engineered.

My American friends, in an effort to help me try and understand their conclusions, sent a raft of articles from the US mainstream media, which, in their bias, displayed the same lack of integrity as my friends’. Even in the extended echo-chamber of social media, there appeared to be a seemingly pathological fear of anything even remotely resembling a balanced view.

Then, along came the 2016 election and the arrival of presidential candidate Donald J. Trump. Whilst the UK was not looking, war seemed to have broken out. If I was not prepared forthrightly to dismiss Trump as the white supremacist he so obviously and professedly was, it was clear that if I was not careful, I would be tarred by the same brush.

My friends assured me there were terrible, terrible things that would become apparent in the ensuing months. The problem was, they never once articulated any of them. Their suspicions all appeared to be hysterical unfounded inferences.

The evident reluctance by left-wing media outlets to condemn a — by now — extremely guilty-looking Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, now seemed unfair. Much of the media seemed all too happy to turn a blind eye to the Benghazi affair, her “unusual” email practices and other seemingly incriminating pranks. The media also seemed to ignore the treasure-trove of information on the suspect machinations of the DNC and its incumbents and other dubious goings on, including truncated FBI investigations, the “controversial” resignation of Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, the sudden departure from CNN of Donna Brazile after having fed questions to Clinton prior to the televised presidential debates, and so on.

The potential skulduggery seemed never ending. How come my friends had never mentioned any of this? Surely, they knew? The echo chamber, it appeared, was hermetically sealed…

Click here to read the entire article at the Gatestone Institute.

Wilder: Civil War 2 Weather Report, Issue Four

John Wilder at Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise has released the next monthly installment of his Civil War 2 weather report in which he updates the various indices he watches in reference to conflict in the US. An excerpt:

Last month when I wrote the Weather Report, the El Paso and Dayton shootings had just happened.  I believe I predicted in the comments that El Paso would have legs, while Dayton would quickly be forgotten.  It didn’t take Nostradamus to predict that – El Paso was attributed to the Right.  Dayton, where a confirmed Satanist Antifa™ member killed bunch of people?  We can ignore Dayton.  That was just random violence by a good boy who just went a little wrong.

Red Flag laws have been the focus of this month’s activity.  I noted in this post (Red Flag Laws, or, How To Repeal The Second Amendment Soviet-Style Without A Pesky Vote) that they would be used inappropriately.  Again, I didn’t need to have psychic powers to predict this.  I landed on a clickbait story from the Puffington Host (I won’t link to them) about 40 “potential mass shooters” having been arrested since El Paso.  Not Dayton, but El Paso.  Odessa happened this weekend.  Assume if the killer’s ideology doesn’t match the required narrative, it will be forgotten…

…Violence was, sadly, the theme of August. But a secondary theme was censorship. Several large YouTube® channels were deleted without any warning, without having violated any of YouTube’s© rules. I had only heard of one of the deleted channels, and, although the others were reinstated, the one that stayed deleted was the one I watched: James Allsup…

…Allsup will keep pushing a message out – he’s articulate and relatable, but now the message will untethered by rules.  The message will cease to be moderated.

Censorship and alienation is a great way to manufacture radicals.  Radicals are a great way to increase polarization…

…Given our current polarization, and with violence springing up regularly when times are good, I tend to think that the younger generation doesn’t see a way forward, doesn’t see prosperity as an option. They feel that they have nothing left to lose…

Read the entire article at Wilder, Wealthy, and Wise by clicking here.

Redoubt News: Liberty State Exceeds All Expectations

From a recent article published by Redoubt NewsLiberty State Exceeds All Expectations:

…Recognizing that the Left Coast will not handle things well if they lose the production east of the Cascades, the Socialist Democrats have been actively trying to shut down the movement to form the new state.

The 51st State has received enormous negative press from the Socialist Main Stream Media lately. Headlines that were, at the very least, disingenuous have been attempting to derail all efforts at spreading the word to the citizens.

These attempts to manipulate a shut down of the movement to split the state have been rampant, yet it seems that it may be backfiring. Rising numbers were obvious when the Spokane County Fair came to town.

Redoubt News visited the fair this weekend to see how the public response was coming along. We saw several dozen people pass through the booth in the short period we were there which would seem to prove the old adage that “There is no such thing as Bad Press.”

Volunteers tell us that the response exceed their expectations with 99% being positive toward Liberty State. They gathered hundreds of signatures this weekend on a petition they tell me is a county-wide advisory vote. Volunteers say they are willing to visit every county in the state, including those on the west side, as support has been coming in from all quarters…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L7u2k7qc8o

Paratus Familia: Charity Gone Wrong

From Enola Gay at Paratus Familia – Charity Gone Wrong:

The Real World Consequences of the Misapplication of “Compassion”

San Francisco.  Seattle.  Denver.  Cities littered with drug needles, human waste, used condoms and the detritus associated with the hopelessness of third-world countries.   And yet this is the United States of America.  Or was…….

Over the years, as our country has been increasingly influenced by progressive elite idealists, we have been forced into a kind of Situational Justice.  Right and wrong, good and bad, has been replaced by a  politically driven narrative that preaches “charity” and “compassion”, but in fact leaves a post-apocalyptic waste land in its wake.

When I was a child, my family lived on Vashon Island, an island in Puget Sound – about a 15 minute Ferry boat ride from Seattle.  My father had been born and raised on Vashon and my mom hailed from West Seattle, moving to Vashon when she was in high school.  Our family had (and still has) deep roots in the area.  When I was 8, we moved to the outback of Idaho, but spent every family vacation in Seattle or on Vashon.  I remember being so excited when we descended Snoqualamie Pass knowing we were almost there!  Back then North Bend seemed way out in the country and Issaquah far removed from Seattle.  By the time we were on Mercer Island, I was mesmerized, and crossing Lake Washington over the Floating Bridge (through the tunnels) was fantastic.  As we’d get closer to downtown, I could smell the salt water and I never failed to breath deep of its heady fragrance.  As we drove, I marveled at one of the things I loved most about the city….it’s amazing beauty.  I loved the ivy-covered walls and the manicured parks.  The thick underbrush and myriad shades of green were truly worthy of the name “The Emerald City”.  It’s beauty was unparalleled.

That was then.  Now, my beautiful city has succumbed to the misapplication of compassion and the consistent use of situational justice.

Progressive Socialists love to tell you that they are all about the “little man”.  They tout “compassion” and “charity” and “equality” as their core values, however, the implementation of their vision produces nothing resembling their “Utopia”.  Unless of course, their utopia includes rampant disease, pervasive drug use and violent, mentally deranged human masses.  Which apparently it does, because that is what we have achieved.

We keep hearing the buzzword “homelessness”.  We also keep hearing about the homeless crisis and about how these poor people have no where to turn – they have been driven to the streets by an oppressive society ruled by White Male Nationalists.  They commit crimes, but they have no choice – society made them do it.  Money must be spent.  Charity must be given.  Compassion must prevail.  And justice must be dispensed based upon individual situations.

It turns out, we don’t have a “homeless” problem.  We have a drug problem.  And we have a drug problem, because we have encouraged it through our misapplied “charity”.  And once we have them hooked on drugs, we must have “compassion” and the only way to show them “compassion” is through “situational” justice.

We have encouraged our country’s drug problem by not holding people responsible for their own actions.  We have chosen to support generation after generation of people unwilling to take care of themselves or their own, destroying their self-worth and killing their souls.  We have given to them without expecting them to contribute to their own lives.  And in the process, we have destroyed a nation.  We have given “charity” to the detriment of generations.

Work is good for the soul.  By not requiring people to work, we have contributed to a population that feels hopeless and useless.  And as a result, our people have increasingly turned to drugs to dull their pain.  And to make ourselves feel better, we give them more….more money, more drugs, more chances.  We call it “compassion” but in reality we are kin to the great destroyer.  We are killing people with “kindness”.  We are not “compassionate” when we give people “safe” places to shoot-up. We are not “compassionate” when we give money to someone sleeping on the street so they can get another hit.  We are not being “charitable” when we allow situational justice to be the law of the land.  We are killing ourselves…..we are killing our families….we are killing our nation.

I read once that “charity is a finely-tuned instrument, and many there are who wound both themselves and others for want of skill in using it”.  I couldn’t agree more!  We have wounded both ourselves and our children with the wrongful use of charity.  We have done by far more harm than good.

Charity, compassion and justice, when used correctly, are the beautiful hallmarks of a Christian nation.  When they have been twisted, however, they become ugly, hateful tools of destruction.  We have a responsibility to use these tools wisely or they will be the very instruments of our demise.  And it would appear that our path is clear……

Raconteur Report: Government Involved in Johnson & Johnson Case Deserve Lynching

Aesop over at the Raconteur Report has some very strong opinions on the recent Johnson & Johnson suit in which plaintiffs were awarded $572 million in damages because people in the state of Oklahoma overdosed on opiates. While his words may be extreme, he has a valid point that this is not rule of law; this is perversion of the law that should not be allowed to happen. This is the issue that is causing people on the right and the left and the middle to become irate, even if they don’t always realize the cause — this is government run amok.

J&J Is Getting Railroaded by Morons and Why You Care

If you were paying close attention yesterday, you might have heard that some inbred robed fuckwit (and his mental incapacity and jurisprudential shortcomings with that appellation should be considered an extremely light sentence) yesterday awarded plaintiffs against Johnson & Johnson some $572M in damages (out of the $17Billion they asked for), due to opiate overdose deaths in the state of OK.

TL;DR:
This is childish magical thinking and judicial bulls#@t that should get the judge impeached, disbarred, and stoned at the city gates immediately..

…So, in short, OK  went looking for someone wholly uninvolved, with deep pockets.And found a judge with an IQ on a par with potted plants (but let’s be fair, judges come from lawyers, and the morons don’t fall far from the tree there), who looked at the contrary facts and legal doctrine, and decided none of that mattered, then spun his Magic 8-Ball and concluded half a billion dollars of shakedown cash sounded like a good round number…

Blaming the makers of a legal product, in an excruciatingly highly-regulated trade, for the misdeeds of others using completely different items, whose only similarity is a chemical class, is simply utter horseshit. Such jurisprudence is the hallmark of mental retardation and absolute professional incapacity...

This case is the equivalent of a judge finding Oneida culpable for forks causing obesity. It’s finding Ticonderoga pencils responsible for causing mistakes on SATs. And if I haven’t made the point blisteringly clear yet,
It’s finding Colt, Winchester, Remington, and Ruger guilty for murders and robberies…

 

Aesop follows up with an article Fiat Anarchy.

…J&J isn’t the issue here, A.B.

The issue is fiat anarchy under color of authority.

Setting the precedent that uninvolved innocent parties can be rounded up, sued, and financially ruined for the unrelated actions of evil people using not-their-product, as if apples were elephants and horseflies were horses, because the defendants happen to be minding their own business legally and above board, undoes all trade and commerce in anything, in about a minute.

That’s a civilizational death sentence…

Charles Carroll Society: El Paso & Dayton Shootings

From Honest & fair coverage of El Paso & Dayton shootings at the Charles Carroll Society:

El Paso, Texas. El Paso, Texas is right across the Mexican border and the town of Ciudad Juárez. I have visited both. Ciudad Juárez is one of the most violent cities in the entire Northern hemisphere.  In El Paso, 21-year-old Patrick Crusius, who is a white nationalist terrorist, attacked a Walmart Supercenter near the Cielo Vista Mall. Patrick Crusius used Wassenaar Arrangement Semi-automatic Rifles (WASR-10), AK-47 style civilian rifles. The civilian version is strictly semi-automatic; one trigger pull, one bullet. Just like nearly every gun in America. He had standard-size magazines (30 rounds).  For some strange reason, he was wearing ear protection. Patrick Crusius murdered 20 random people and wounded 26 others in about 20 minutes. About half of those are still in the hospital. Patrick Crusius surrendered to cops.

We call Patrick Crusius a white nationalist terrorist because he left a manifesto titled The Inconvenient Truth. I have read the manifesto but have decided not to publish it. It has nothing significantly new to say.  He said the Christchurch mosque shooter Brenton Tarrant inspired him. Patrick Crusius’ primary thread in his manifesto is that uncontrolled migration to America by mostly Hispanics, who vote for the Democratic Party 70% of the time, will pull the entire nation into a one-party domination like we have in California. He faults the Democratic Party for encouraging this, and he blames the Republican Party, mainly Republican business interests, for doing nothing to stop this. Thus Patrick Crusius felt his only response is violence. He said, “…America is rotting from the inside out, and peaceful means to stop this seem to be nearly impossible. The inconvenient truth is that our leaders, both Democrat AND Republican, have been failing us for decades.”…

Dayton Ohio. The Dayton, Ohio, shooter is 24-year-old Connor Betts of Bellbrook, Ohio, law enforcement officials told CBS News, and a law enforcement official confirmed this with The Daily Beast. Dayton, Ohio, is near the massive Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.  I have also visited this city.  He killed nine people and wounded 26 more. The shooting happened outside of a country bar known as Ned Peppers Bar, a popular nightclub, located at, 419 E 5th St, in Dayton, OH, in the city’s Oregon Historic District. There are reports that he was killed trying to enter Ned Peppers country Bar.  In general, White Nationalists do not go to where White people hang out and shoot up the place.  They tend to go to synagogues, Sikh temples and Black baptist churches.

It is being reported and celebrated on the dark corners of the Internet that of the nine people murdered, six were black, three white, including his sister. Since the shooting happened so fast, it is unknown if he was aiming for black men and women, or they just happened to be the first people he encountered. The Dayton Police Chief says he “does not believe it was racially motivated.”  I do.  I think he was trying to kill white people.  He was a registered Democrat and worked at Chipotle.  At this time he appears to be an Antifa-supporting far left extremist.  This has all the markings of a “tit-for-tat” response to El Paso by the satanic Left…

Guardian: Why Leftist Groups Are Taking Up Arms

From The Guardian, ‘If others have rifles, we’ll have rifles’: why US leftist groups are taking up arms:

A John Brown Gun Club member wears a patch featuring the Trans Pride flag and an AR-15 while community defending Trans Pride in Seattle.
A John Brown Gun Club member wears a patch featuring the Trans Pride flag and an AR-15 while community defending Trans Pride in Seattle. Photograph: Grant Hindsley/The Guardian

The van lumbered down one of Seattle’s many steep hills. A half dozen people packed inside but despite the heat, most wore long pants and boots, and several sported black hoodies. The atmosphere was subdued, except for the occasional joke. It wasn’t so much tension as seriousness – there was work to be done.

The people in the van are members of the Puget Sound John Brown Gun Club (PSJBGC). Their stated aim is to fight white supremacy and build community defense in America’s Pacific north-west, and their presence has become a fixture of protests in the Seattle and Tacoma areas, where the group is often invited to provide security against rightwing aggression.

The night before, several of them had been called to a library in nearby Renton, Washington, where a Drag Story Time Hour, an event series in which a local drag queen or drag king reads to children in a library or bookstore, was being disrupted by rightwing protesters. The protesters, who opposed the event as “immoral”, held up signs equating drag with pedophilia, and screamed “Shame! Shame!” at parents and their kids. Among them were members of the Proud Boys, a violent rightwing street gang, and Three Percenters militia, who were open-carrying firearms.

The north-west has been at the center of tense political clashes over the last two years. The area is an adopted home base for far-right groups like Patriot Prayer, Identity Evropa/American Identity Movement and the Proud Boys, who have organized numerous marches that have ended in violence. In response, a range of leftist groups have organized self defence groups and, in doing so, present gun ownership as a way to protect themselves and others.

Now, the Puget Sound John Brown Gun Club was en route to Seattle’s Trans Pride March.

In the weeks prior, word spread that a number of white supremacist groups had planned to disrupt the celebration. Hearing this, the club reached out to the organizers of the event, the Gender Justice League, and offered to assist with security or to provide escorts.

Brooke Wylie, the head of security for the Gender Justice League in charge of overseeing the 101-person security detail for the event, did some research on the club. She told them the event had a policy of having no open carry (that is, no visible weapon), which they were fine with. She accepted their offer. Police were also present, but many marginalized groups do not trust them to provide protection at public events, especially when far-right groups are involved.

Each member showed up with a concealed handgun. “We do our actions proportional to the threat, so when other people are out with rifles, we’ll be out with rifles,” Nick, the group’s de facto spokesperson, explained. “In this case, we don’t want to appear threatening for the people that we’re trying to protect and support; we want this to be a happy atmosphere, especially for a population that may have faced gun violence on the street just for being who they are.”

This scenario – in which armed community groups are working together to patrol a Pride event and protect it from other malicious and potentially armed groups – is becoming more and more common. There are more guns than people in America – approximately 393 million in a country of 328 million people…

Click here to read the entire story at The Guardian.

 

Related:

Defense Maven: Man killed in attack on ICE facility identified as Antifa militia member/John Brown Gun Club member.

…Van Spronsen was declared dead at the scene. The Pierce County medical examiner said he died of multiple gunshot wounds.

He was quickly identified as an active member of the John Brown Gun Club, a left-wing militia, who had been arrested in June of 2018 while protesting at the same facility he was trying to blow up when he was fatally shot, the Seattle Times reported…

RT: America Stumbling Towards Civil War One Terrible Tweet at a Time

Forward Observer: Breaking Down “Civil War 2” – Part V

In this video, Sam Culper of Forward Observer shares part five of his critique of the Civil War 2 video.  See Part I, Part II, Part III, and Part IV.

In this video, intelligence analyst and Iraq/Afghanistan war veteran Samuel Culper breaks down his thoughts and the implications of military and law enforcement involvement during a Low Intensity Conflict.

ARRL: Hurricane Watch Net Keeping Eye on Tropical Storm Barry

From the Amateur Radio Relay League:

Hurricane Watch Net (HWN) Manager Bobby Graves, KB5HAV, said the net is “keeping a very close eye” on Tropical Storm Barry, which could develop into a Category 1 hurricane. The HWN has announced no plans to activate, however, and remains at Alert Level 2 — monitoring mode.

At 2100 UTC, the storm’s center was 90 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi and some 175 miles southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana. The storm is generating maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH with higher gusts and is moving to the west at 5 MPH.

“Although hurricane watches and warnings are now in effect, the National Hurricane Center states that Barry could become a hurricane prior to landfall,” Graves noted. “Even if Barry does not reach Category 1 hurricane status, wind gusts to hurricane force are possible in the warning area. Regardless, if Barry becomes a hurricane or not, this system is looking to be a major rainmaker.”

Forecasters concur that the storm will continue to intensify until making landfall. A danger exists of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana. The storm’s slow movement will result in an extended period of heavy rainfall and the threat of flooding along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week, forecasters said.

 

Here is the standard HWN activation plan:

When activated, you will find us on 14.325 MHz (USB) by day and 7.268 MHz (LSB) by night. If propagation dictates, daytime operations will be conducted on both frequencies simultaneously. Why do we state these frequencies without a plus or minus amount? Because those who are operating using marine radios have to program in the frequencies – marine radios do not have a VFO or RIT. Furthermore, these two frequencies come preprogrammed into many marine radios. Many non-hams listen in via shortwave radio and know this is where to find us when we are activated…

NOTE: During any Net activation, operations on 7.268.00 MHz will suspend @ 7:30 AM ET to allow the “Waterway Radio and Cruising Club Net – WRCC” (aka, the Waterway Net) to conduct their daily morning Net. If required, due to poor daytime propagation on 14.325.00 MHz, operations on 7.268.00 MHz may be required at the conclusion of the Water Way Net, generally around 8:30 AM ET.

Whenever the Hurricane Watch Net is not active, you can hear the latest information on 14.300.00 MHz.

As a special note to those who monitor when the net is active, we ask that you please honor our request for you remain quiet unless specifically called upon for assistance.

NatGeo: New Orleans Braces for Major Flooding from Tropical Storm Barry Continue reading “ARRL: Hurricane Watch Net Keeping Eye on Tropical Storm Barry”

Forward Observer: Breaking Down “Civil War 2” – Part IV

In this video, Sam Culper of Forward Observer shares part four of his critique of the Civil War 2 video.  See Part I and Part II and Part III.

 

In this video, intelligence analyst and Iraq/Afghanistan war veteran Samuel Culper breaks down his view of the future (insurgency vs civil war), guerrilla warfare, phases of revolutionary conflict, and answers the question, “Where are we now?”

Forward Observer: Breaking Down Civil War 2 – Part III

In this video, Sam Culper of Forward Observer shares part three of his critique of the Civil War 2 video.  See Part I and Part II.

In this video, intelligence analyst and Iraq/Afghanistan war veteran Samuel Culper breaks down another reason to expect Balknization of the U.S., and two ways to begin looking at strengths and weaknesses of competing sides of a conflict.

Forward Observer: Economic Warning – June 2019

Sam Culper at Forward Observer has a short article up discussing recent economic projections for a recession to begin in 2020 or even this year.

What follows is the Economic Warning portion of this week’s Watch Report.

In this month’s FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that there was soft economic data emerging — a potential warning sign of recession. Many investors expect a cut to interest rates next month to stave off a recession. Some economists expect two rate cuts this year, regardless of when they happen. One asset manager said he expected four rate cuts this year.

Recession and Trump’s reelection chances

This month, Jeffrey Gundlach, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase all revised their expectations of recession forward to 2020. JPMorgan’s Bruce Kasman said it might even start this year. That’s a big shift from what these firms were saying last month, so I agree that we can expect the Fed to cut interest rates in order to stave off a recession. Gundlach, who has no faith in the Fed’s predictive capability, believes that by the time the Fed has to cut rates, it will already be too late.

This, of course, will have major implications for President Trump’s reelection chances. High profile managers like Scott Minerd and Kyle Bass both believe that the recession will be average or mild, respectively. Others, like Gundlach, have warned that this recession is going to present more difficult challenges.

If this recession poses the risks that Gundlach describes (below) then Trump’s chances of reelection will be seriously threatened. If that’s the case, then it’s time to batten down the hatches for higher taxes and wealth redistribution based on what we saw during this week’s Democratic debates and what’s been proposed in the lead up.

The problem with cutting interest rates this year to stave off a recession next year is that the Fed will have less to cut once a recession does hit, which increases the likelihood that the recession is more painful than “mild.”…

Click here to read the entire summary at Forward Observer.