Tag: shtf

Organic Prepper: Timing Is EVERYTHING When the SHTF

Florida residents bugging out ahead of Hurricane Irma.

Selco Begovic, writing at the Organic Prepper, talks about the importance of timing when the SHTF. Just recently we briefly posted about the immense traffic jam caused when people in Paris tried fleeing ahead of the most recent lockdowns. Just this morning after a work meeting with my boss we briefly segued into the state of the country and that we both considered moving to other countries but weren’t sure which could be considered “better” right now. But we also recognized that you don’t want to wait until it is too late to leave. If/when a government crackdown finally comes, it will probably be too late to leave, so you have to try to read the signs of descent.

Timing or the importance of perfect timing in SHTF can be a matter of life and death.

For a starting point, you need to understand something that I mentioned in previous posts. When SHTF occurs, the situation is fluid – it can change quickly, and you need to recognize those changes so you can react in time, and in the proper way.

The real danger is other people

I like to say that when the SHTF most probably your enemy is not going to be some foreign invaders, UN troops, or people that are very different than you.

It’s very possible your enemy will be the people that today live around you.

What will make them your enemy?

Well, a lot of things. The SHTF itself, the lack of resources, hate, polarization, absence of a system, absence of repercussion for their actions…

But always the main reason will be the lack of resources, and it is something I wrote about a lot in my book. That makes every person your possible enemy.

How does the importance of timing come into play here?

Well, it is on you to time your plans and actions based on the situation around you.

Here are a couple of examples:

  • Are local criminal gangs going to go completely wild and storm your home?
  • Can you feel absolutely free to shoot anyone who is a possible threat to you?
  • When you are bugging out are you gonna run over whoever stands in your way on the road, or are you driving like a law-abiding citizen?

Answers to those questions are quite different based on the time (or timing) when you are answering them. Simply if there is no system still working, everything falls apart. The timing of your action is important. You must understand what the rules are so you can choose how (or how hard) your response will be.

And do not forget, since it will be fluid the difference can be as little as a half-hour of time. Or even minutes.

A law-abiding citizen

Yes, I know, most probably you are a law-abiding citizen.

But, you cannot be a law abiding citizens in a situation where there is no law at all.

So what are you gonna be?

I am not suggesting anything here, but, again, your actions should be different in normal times and world without law and order. I am talking here not about violence, but about your feelings of who owns what when all falls apart.

If you recognize in time that there is simply no system, and there are things that actually suddenly do not “belong” to anyone, you can make good decisions about acquiring things you need. And trust me if you do not make it then, you will make it later. Only later you are not gonna have so many choices or opportunities.

No, I am not talking about stealing from other folks or looting your local mall during a bad weather event or riot.

I am talking about your acts in the first days of an event that is gonna be complete and prolonged world without a regular system of law and order.
Timing there also means that you need to recognize when some things are more important than others…for example, food is more important than some big-screen TV.

Actions on the ground

Timing also means a lot while certain things are happening when SHTF, especially in the very early stages of SHTF.

The early stage is important, because most of the people in that stage are not sure of:

  • what is exactly happening
  • how serious it is
  • how long it is going to last
  • what exactly they should do

You, as a survivalist/prepper, should be ahead of those people and you should know, or at least have an educated guess about the 4 questions above so you can time your actions appropriately.

Looting/scavenging

There is nothing too much philosophical here, and here is one example:

Something happens, and people are looting the mall.

What are you going to do?

Well, the most obvious answer is that you’ll stay at home because it is safest.

But let’s say you need medicines, food, or whatever.

Well if it is a real and serious SHTF, I would say you are gonna go there and “loot.” Only it is technically not looting anymore, because there is no law and order. It is not coming back for a long time or ever. So if you are smart, you’ll go there and stock up with important medicines, or food, or lighter fluid or similar stuff.

The timing is perfect because the answers to all of the above questions are “satisfying” for that. And you as a prepper for sure are not gonna loot stereos and TVs.

Most of the other people gonna be stupid and loot that useless stuff, because they completely missed the understanding of what is going on.

The timing here can be tricky too because you need to check if there are other people who understood how serious the situation is (based on the above questions). If they did, then you might lose your life there looking for food or medicines, simply because a lot of other people could be doing the same.

And do not forget, criminal organised groups WILL eventually figure out what is important, so they will eventually come to control that.

So, the timing is important, but again, the timing of your understanding of the term “law-abiding citizen” here is something that you need to figure out first when something serious happens.

You also need to know when to leave.

I have said before if I had realized what was coming when the SHTF for me, I would have left. But I waited too late. I missed my time.

You must be ready to leave everything (physical) in a split second if that means survival and life.

Learn to operate in terms of “less is more” or in other words, try whenever you can to substitute dependence on things with owning knowledge of a particular skill. For example, owning a big stash of water is great, owning skills and means to purify near water sources is even better.

Be ready to alter your plans – do not value your current plan so much that you are ready to die for it. Have an open and flexible mind so you can recognize that moment when your current plan becomes worthless. Do not act like “my plan (bugging out, or bugging in) is so good that I am ready to die for it.

Timing is everything when the SHTF.

A lot of things and actions in the world of survival are simply words. Those words will have different meanings when SHTF, based on the moment in time and based on when you are taking your actions. You as a prepper need to time your actions according to the events around you, and you need to be ready to kinda bend based on the events unfolding.

The most adaptable will survive.

The Organic Prepper: There’s No Such Thing as “Without Rule of Law”

Toby Cowern at The Organic Prepper writes about the idea of “Without Rule of Law” in SHTF/TEOTWAWKI situations and how it doesn’t really exist. Instead there is something he and Selco refer to as “Different Rule of Law.”

I want to address one specific point. This is a very general application across the preppersphere. But it’s also become a little bit time-sensitive in certain countries just now, so it’s a lesson well worth visiting. And for those that have watched my videos or read the articles or seen me quoted previously, one of my kind of most quoted phrases is “Words have meaning and meaning is important.” And I stand by that.

Selco and I constantly, in lectures or courses, preface everything with definitions and meanings and understanding so everybody’s on the same page. What I want to do here is address one specific phrase and then tweak it. Within the prepper-sphere, and wider world, we have this concept of W R O L

  • ( WROL) Which stands for: Without Rule of Law. This has been written about extensively and the principle is: as normal societal function slows down, or stops, the law is no longer applied. It becomes a Wild West in the classic connotation of it.

In our philosophy, Selco and I believe that WROL categorically does not exist. However, what we do work with is D R O L (DROL) Doesn’t sound like much difference, but it’s critical because of a slight perception and shift change in mindsets.

  • DROL is Different Rule of Law. No matter what the catastrophe is or how bad it gets, there’s always going to be a “law” of some sort. In fact, we could actually stop at the word rule: without rule or different rules. There are always going to be rules.

We can drop the word “law” because people get really hung up on the specificity of its meaning. As in these are democratically elected, government-monitored states that are sort of enforced. Let’s just look at rules instead of laws to understand what I mean.

Nature abhors a vacuum.

Now, the simple fact is, we all know that nature abhors a vacuum. So as one system comes down or pauses or rests, another will immediately move to fill that void. And that’s what we have with rules. It doesn’t necessarily have to be on a national or state level. This can be a very singular or on a small unit level: towns, cities, or even smaller than that, like neighborhoods, parts of cities, parts of towns.

And this isn’t theoretical. This is evidenced globally through the history of humanity and definitely within the modern era that this state exists. Quite simply, here’s one of the first things to understand: there has to be an infrastructure for new rules to be introduced and most importantly, enforced.

Rules are nothing without enforcement. The only reason any of us follow any rules is because of the threat of enforcement if we break them. The vehemence, the detail, and the pain of that enforcement govern our individual application of those rules within our own individual lives.

The infrastructure already exists. There are those who would love to implement new rules. The only thing is looking at their capability to enforce those rules. This is where it gets interesting. We can’t then say, “It doesn’t matter whether mob rule, or gang rule, or criminal rule, or warlord rule.” No, it matters very much whose rules you’re following, because of the vehemency and level of enforcement.

That is the small shift and key mindset difference, that so important. WROL, the Wild West, is basically alleging: Rules can be broken with no consequences. That’s the classic, “I’ll drive my car through an illegal vehicle checkpoint, potentially guns blazing because it doesn’t matter because nobody can stop me.”

Now Without Rule Of Law, all of that will be true. In DROL, the enforcement or the penalization of that action will vary but there will be consequences. So quite simply in Different Rule Of Law, there are always going to be consequences. Always. And those consequences may be way more severe than when we had our current rule of law.

It’s not there are no consequences. It’s more like, this may have previously got me a fine or a warning, or day in court. But now, that same action will going to get me hunted, tracked, and killed. Or worse still, made a public example of. These are the other factors to consider. Justice throughout the Western world, for all its flaws, for all its foibles, for all its humanity, tries to be as evenly applied across the populace as possible. (I’m not going to get into politics of different enforcement for different segments of society. Let’s keep it at that kind of higher-level perception.)

In DROL, there is no even application of the rules, not even a pretense of it. Whoever is making the rules and disseminating down to the enforcement capabilities speaks to how those rules are going to be enforced and how evenly and how equally. So, you might run a checkpoint, but because of your skillset or your stature in the community or your finances, you might get away with it. You might be able to pay them off. Somebody else may literally be executed. They may be executed on the spot.

The infrastructures are already in place.

It can be because all of the infrastructures are there already and they have an existing symbiosis with the structures in governance and enforcement. That is a given. Every gang and criminal enterprise has connections, cooperation, and collaborations with the people policing them. Because that’s how the dark system works.

If you don’t believe me, get online and do some research. Don’t deny that it exists because it does. In every country around the world. Quite simply, the poorer, the more third-world the country, the more corrupt the system.

And the more corrupt the system, the more that integration is already there…(continues)

Click here to read the entire article at The Organic Prepper.

Forward Observer: 5 Steps to Setting Up an Intelligence Network for SHTF

Intelligence Analyst Sam Culper at Forward Observer presents Five Steps to Setting Up an Intelligence Network for SHTF. He also invites you to his Intel Bootcamp.

Many of you feel a sense of urgency about the future… Like things might spiral out of control around November or shortly thereafter.

And despite that sense of urgency, I know there are lots of reasons why you might not take my latest online course.

As you may have heard, the Intel Bootcamp course starts today.

I’m going to show students how they can build a local intelligence network to facilitate information-sharing during what disasters may come.

I’m removing the fogginess of what to do next, the guess work and the trial-and-error.

If you watch these instructional videos and complete the tasks I outline, then you’re going to be head and shoulders above your peers and the competition.

For those who aren’t going to take this course, I want to outline five things you need to know… (This stuff is in the course, by the way.)

1. Start a neighborhood watch. It doesn’t matter how many people join at first — just get it started. You can use this organization immediately to share information, plus there are numerous benefits later on.

2. Focus your efforts. It’s easy to get bogged down by just how much useless information comes through the news. Use my 60/30/10 model to focus your collection locally. Sign up for local sources of official information and automate your collection as much as possible.

3. Be deliberate. Identify your intelligence gaps — figure out what you need to know. From these gaps, you generate collection requirements — the pieces of information that need to be collected. If we’re not deliberate about collection, we’re going to end up with junk.

4. Develop people, not sources. Don’t think of developing sources as purely transactional. Yes, we want them to find useful information and pass it to us, but these people are our neighbors and community members. They want the same thing we do: a safe neighborhood and early warning about local threats. Build trust and friendship as you build our your local network.

5. Lean on existing groups. Lots of areas have existing civic and political groups. These groups are not only sources of information, but also recruiting pools for people who are concerned about the future and interested in communities safe from crime, mob violence, looting, or worse. Either join yourself, or task members of your network to join these groups. Many hands make light work.

There is, of course, a lot to do. And there’s a lot more to it than this.

But if you internalize these five goals for yourself and act on them, then you’re going to be well on your way to building a solid information-sharing network for when disaster does strike…

Christian Prepper Gal: Has the Reality of It Hit You Yet?

Christian Prepper Gal asks if you’ve realized that you’re in a SHTF situation in Has the Reality of It Hit You Yet?

We are in the midst of a global pandemic. We are in the middle of a SHTF situation. I think for most preppers that is just now beginning to sink in. And, I’ve been amazed at the number of new preppers that have shown up in Facebook groups in the past month! The time to be prepared is NOW. And, I’m not just talking about being prepared with food and household essentials. Unfortunately, so many, and especially new, preppers think that is all they need to or have to do.

Last Fall (2019) I began to feel very strongly that it was time to stop trying to warn people of the need to be prepared. That it was time to make sure we had our own ducks in a row, and see to it that our own lamps were filled with oil. I even expressed to those around me that I felt like “something” was going to happen in 2020. And, by “something” I meant we were going to experience (as a nation) SH(ing)TF. And, guess what?!? It happened! I personally had thought it would be as a result of the election. But, apparently I was wrong. See? I can admit being wrong, from time to time, lol.

It is my belief that this SHTF scenario has just begun. We are all wanting it to be overwith quickly and for things to get back to normal. But, you know what? I don’t think it’s going to be overwith quickly, and I’m not sure things can ever be back to what normal was before the COVID-19 pandemic. I don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer, but I also don’t mean to give false hope to others, or myself. The reality of it is that there will be repercussions from our nation being essentially shut down. Even though the term has not been “officially” used as of yet here in the U.S., that is what has happened. We’ve already been shut down for close to a month, and it sure doesn’t look like things are going to be getting back to “normal” any time soon.

How are you reacting to all this?

First and foremost, we SHOULD NOT be reacting with fear. Especially as Christians. But, it’s easy to allow that to happen. Remember, though…

2 Timothy 1:7, For God hath not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind. (KJV)

It is especially important to remember that right now, during this pandemic. We do not want to allow our minds to become the devil’s playground, do we? I know I don’t! But, if we allow fear to creep in, that is exactly what we’re doing.

How do we avoid or get rid of that fear? We read The Word of God. Romans 10:17, So then faith cometh by hearing, and hearing by the word of God. (KJV). If we read (hear) The Word of God, it drives out fear! How can you have faith and fear at the same time? You can’t! And, that’s why we need to build up our most holy faith. We need to saturate our entire beings with His Word! According to Johh 1:1, “In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. (KJV) Jesus is The Word. If we read what He said, in His Word, our faith will abound! And, faith expels fear! If we put our trust in Him, we will prevail and overcome fear.

There was one day a couple of weeks ago that I was so overcome with the negative from the news and social media that I had to play some contemporary worship music. I turned it up loud, and let it drown out all the negative in my mind and eyes. Then, I could put my mind and eyes back on Jesus.

We need to keep our eye on the prize. And, as Christians, our prize is eternal life with our Heavenly Father. So, if we keep our eyes on Him, we will win in the end!

Are you still denying it?

As I mentioned earlier, some (many) people (including preppers) are in denial. They truly think that our government will be able to take care of us and this is the worst that things will get. Some preppers don’t even realize that this is the SHTF that they’ve been preparing for! My thought is that the reason for that is they are only seeing the here and now. They’re not seeing what can and possibly will happen as a result of our nation being shut down.

Take a moment and let that sink in. Think about it. Our government has already put itself two trillion dollars in debt over this pandemic and that has only touched the surface. It will take much, much more than that to dig us out of this economic hole we are in. Do we have that much money and resources in reserve? Most likely not.

The economic downfall of the pandemic is just now beginning to be felt by many. What is going to happen when the food and resources begin to run out? What’s going to happen when parents cannot provide for their families? It will hit those with the lower incomes first. And, we are on the brink of that happening as I write. And, we are only in the beginning; one month since the declaration of this being a pandemic. We have a long way to go before we can even begin recovery. The virus hasn’t even been stabilized yet; it could take up to 18 months or longer to develop a vaccine. Our government is trying to help us and prevent things like chaos as a result of looting and rioting from happening. But, it’s not all up to only them…(continues)

Click here to read the entire article at Christian Prepper Gal.

Survivopedia: Coronavirus – What You Should Really Do Regarding Your Stockpile

From Bill White at Survivopedia, Coronavirus: What You Should Really Do Regarding Your Stockpile on how the pandemic may be different from what most preppers prepared and why the so-called “panic  buying” has been a good thing.

As the COVID-19 Coronavirus sweeps the globe, different people are reacting in different ways.

For most, fear is a part of that reaction. That’s normal, as we all tend to be afraid of the unknown and there’s still a lot of unknown about this virus. But the truly scary part isn’t the fear that people are having; it’s the fear that governments are having.

Don’t get me wrong; I don’t envy the problems that the president and state governors are facing right now. They are in a no-win situation, where they are having to make decisions based on limited information, with the foreknowledge that there is no right answer. No matter what they decide, there will be others, sitting on the sidelines, telling them how wrong they are.

As it stands right now, if the president or some governor calls for a full quarantine, they will be blasted for overreacting and destroying the economy. If they don’t call for that, they will be blasted for not taking the situation seriously and every death will be laid at their doorstep. Both of these reactions are already happening, it just depends on who is doing the complaining about what the government is doing, and that doesn’t necessarily follow party lines.

Is Quarantine Coming?

The entire state of California, 40 million people, is now under quarantine. New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo is directing non-essential businesses to keep their workers at home. Even in Texas, which has relatively few cases, the governor is calling for voluntary self-isolation for the next two weeks.

Is this an overreaction? Or is it necessary to prevent a massive number of people from dying?

To answer that question, we need to understand why the government is calling for people to self-quarantine, specifically why they’re calling for a 14-day self-quarantine.

There’s no way that a 14-day quarantine is going to put a total stop to the disease. First of all, there are a significant number of cases on record, where the incubation period was longer than 14 days. Secondly, even if all incubation periods fell within the 14-day window, people are still contagious while their bodies are battling the disease. If they are treated at home, there’s still a chance of them infecting their families.

So what’s the 14-day voluntary quarantine about then?

Just like social distancing, the 14-day voluntary self-isolation is about slowing the spread of the disease, rather than stopping it. It is being instituted now, to ensure that everyone who comes down with a serious case of the disease will have a hospital bed to rest in and a respirator to help them breathe. It’s to ensure that our medical community is able to give people the treatment they need, in order to give them the greatest chances of defeating the virus and surviving.

I recently saw some rather interesting computer models, which showed how a viral disease of this type propagates through a population. In a “normal” situation, where there are no safeguards in place, the number of cases of the disease rises rapidly, outpacing the medical community’s ability to deal with it. A full quarantine of those who are infected is hard to institute because you will always have some people who are going to be “leakers” slipping through and spreading the disease. The most effective thing to do is to isolate as many people as possible, reducing the number of people who are moving around and spreading the disease throughout the population.

This is what the government is trying to do. By asking people to shelter in their homes, they are hoping to drastically reduce the number of people who are out and about, with the potential of spreading the disease. We are not being told that we can’t leave our homes at all, but rather being asked to avoid leaving them as much as possible. At the same time, places where people congregate, where one contagious person could easily infect many other people, are being closed for two weeks, with the same goal of slowing the spread of the disease.

I remember reading a few years back about how school desks have more germs on them than the average toilet seat. My reaction at that time was to write a satire about it. But if you think about it, our schools are a breeding ground for disease. They are filled with children, most of whom are not all that concerned about personal hygiene and who all come into close contact with each other. Typically, if one child gets sick, you can count on the whole class catching it within a week or two.

So, what will this quarantine do for us?

Basically, it does two things. The first is that it shows the spread of the disease, spreading it out over a longer period of time. This will level out the workload for our medical professionals so that they can give each patient the treatment that they need…(continues)

Click here to read the entire article at Survivopedia.

Backdoor Survival: Going Stealth When Using a Generator

Going Stealth When Using Generators: Lessons From Venezuela comes from Jose Martinez in an article at Backdoor Survival. Jose Martinez was able to flee Venezuela and make a life elsewhere, but shares what he learned in the chaos in various articles.

…This long introduction is only meant to open your eyes so you can understand the attitude and behavior of the people who very likely will be roaming in the streets after or while the collapse is occurring. There will be some pockets where the situation won’t be that bad, but won’t be too many, and perhaps far away from each other. More about that in the next articles.

Not all of your neighbors may be good.

Let´s go on topic now. I´m sure there is plenty of preppers around there with generators and a huge fuel tank. Many of us even with a propane system as a backup. Great. We all agree that, under some type of threat, and the power grid is shut down in our nearby area, we´ll turn on our generator, and start to count how many hours it´s on, and check the fuel level every few hours.

Hopefully, you´ll have a battery rack large enough to have some lights and heating on for a while, when the generator is off to save fuel. It should be possible to replenish the tank, after all. This will depend, of course, on every different situation. I know something for real: we can´t prep for everything.

But we can prepare for some general situations that are going to generate some type of scarcity. The difficult part here, and I speak from my own experience, is the calculation of how much time that contingency is going to last.

We were more or less prepared for civilian turmoil and general disorder that could make us bugging in. Time proved us wrong. Dangerously wrong. I´ve mentioned this in other articles, though. Let´s keep going with this…

It´s astonishing to learn how silence can rule over the land when there is no electricity. When we were still living in Venezuela, the worst of the blackouts (even for me, a lover of peace and quiet) was the silence. It was good for some purpose, though, because sometimes it would allow to detect early presence of undesirable or threatening individuals, like those running in small Chinese motorbikes all over the place, with two guys, the one in the backseat generally armed with a 9mm or a .38 revolver. Those would rob everyone within their reach.

Once a small engine motorcycle is detected, everyone looks for getting out the way in Venezuela. If your generator is too loud, you won´t hear inside your home what can be happening outside, and we can’t be monitoring our CCTV surveillance cameras (and if you don´t have them, get them. Now, when they´re on the cheap, and PLEASE conceal them. Don´t be a smart a$$ and leave them in the open as a “deterrent” to someone knocks them down with a silenced .22 and blind your eyes outside). If you are nearby the sound source it´s very likely you won´t be able to hear anything going on around. This is a very powerful reason to think carefully about where we put money in. There are quite expensive generators, liquid-cooled, where the coolant act as a soundproof layer, and with specially designed casings to quieten the sound. Of course, you can imagine how expensive these machines are. They worth it, though, for those who can´t or won´t bug out to a secluded location and prefer to stay put in their place. I can accept that…

Backdoor Survival: 3 Proven Profitable Activities in a Collapse, Venezuelan Edition

This article was written by Jose Martinez, an eyewitness to the collapse of Venezuela, for Backdoor Survival. It details three occupations that are allowing people to continue to survive in Venezuela – small scale farmer, plumber, and electrician.

The worst part of the economic collapse has already passed and people have slowly understood that they can´t keep working to receive useless and worthless currency.

The mafia has injected (illegally, I guess, as the most parts of what they do) hundreds of tons of dollars to increase the liquidity they destroyed themselves, with shadowy intentions.

Maybe not so shadowy after all, if we see the hundreds of kilos of all kinds of drugs that “someone” is smuggling all over the place.

How this amount of illegal product circulates in our roads and gets through the airports, is a mystery for me as a civilian. Unless, of course, those responsible to keep the country safe are busy in some other “activity”…

This is not intended to be a list compiling what you should study to be the most wanted employee in the next collapse. It’s just a simple, reliable and proven testimony of how some people, who could not or would not flee and leave our beloved and sunny country behind, are surviving and getting enough food on their table, medicines, clothing, and generally sneaking into the dark waters of this induced collapse á-lá Cuban…

1. Small Scale Farming and Food Production

This seems obvious? It is not. Small farms in Venezuela never were excessively productive, with some honorable exceptions I personally know of. It takes a lot of hard, back-breaking work. Being smaller, usually, owners don’t invest in tons of machinery, even if they could have afforded them at some time. They may have some grinding equipment, for cattle feed and such. Small tractors are found expensive for many owners. I know because they have talked to me about this and listened.

Cheap Chinese spare parts could make equipment fail in the worst possible moment and ruin the entire crop, so they prefer renting or trading in some way when they need plowing or some kind of tractor work. They hire laborers to crop, or rent the needed machinery, once again…

Click here to read the entire article at Backdoor Survival.

Mountain Guerrilla: “When” the SHTF

This lengthy piece comes from Mountain Guerrilla blog‘s Patreon page. This one is a public posting, so no Patreon membership is required to read it.  Some people get turned off by the way John Mosby writes; try to get past it. Mosby consistently writes insightful commentary. You may not like what he says, but think about it before rejecting it, and you may find your mind changing. In this article, Mosby talks about supposedly prepared people who ended up not being prepared for simple disasters and the kinds of things you can do to be self-sufficient in a way that makes you prepared for these short term disasters.

“When” the SHTF

One of the things I’ve spent a lot of time and bandwidth on is pointing out the inanity of focusing preparedness on some potential future cataclysmic event that will bring about The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI)… like overnight, total economic meltdown leading to a catastrophic failure of modern society, EMP or CMP destroying the electrical grid, terrorists detonating “dirty bombs” in multiple major metropolitan centers, zombie or other pandemic disease outbreaks, and the like are cool to theorize about. The problem is, they’re cool to theorize and fantasize about because they are so unlikely.

That’s not to say that it wouldn’t be super convenient. That sounds facile, but it really isn’t. Sure, the idea that “90% die-off” of the American population being “convenient” seems ridiculous. The idea that spending the rest of your life in a tooth-and-claw fight for sustenance and survival would be “convenient” seems like something a testosterone-poisoned teenage boy would claim. The reality is however, compared to the reality we are facing, the popular images of “TEOTWAWKI” are exactly that: they’re convenient.

You wake up one morning, and nobody, anywhere, has any electricity. The banks and banking computers no longer work, so nobody, anywhere, has any money left, and those who did have a couple hundred or thousand in cash, stuffed into a pair of underwear, are … out of luck, because every quickly realizes that cash is valueless. You no longer have to worry about soccer practice, band recitals, or math tutors, for Little Suzie and Sam, because it’s time to crawl into the Crye Multicam jammies you bought, strap on your plate carrier, load and zero your 1970s vintage, Belgian-made FN/FAL with wood furniture (because real men carry rifles made of wood and steel, by Gawd!) and iron sights, and prepared to defend hearth and home, and the virtue of the little Missus!

No more fighting about what’s for supper, and whether we should eat at home, or go out, because we’re going to be living on beans and rice for the next year. No more worrying about who is watching what on television, because the power grid is down, and the satellites got fried by the CME too, so there’s no DirecTV, even if you did have a generator to hook the television up to. No more worries about making it to the gym to work out, and try to treadmill that “freshman fifteen” you put on your first year of college….twenty years ago, because it’s going to be physical labor from now until you die, trying to gather supplies, and cut and split wood.

No more dealing with attorneys to battle it out with the neighbor over the boundary dispute because one of you built the privacy fence incorrectly. Now, you can just smoke check the dude with a thirty caliber round from your FAL, because the police are no longer working. It’s not like you have to worry about him fighting back, because he’s “sheeple,” and you’re pretty sure he doesn’t even own a gun. You’ve certainly never seen him carrying one, and he doesn’t have any cool guy gun bumper stickers on his truck, like you do.

Yeah, it would be convenient.

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Reality is dirtier, and far, far less convenient. Reality is PG&E shutting down the power grid to millions of people, for weeks, because they’re worried about lack of infrastructure maintenance causing runaway wildfires. Reality is those wildfires happening anyway, and closing down your “Bug Out” route, because of traffic congestion, as everybody else tries to flee the dangers at the same time.

Reality is a tornado sweeping across two counties, knocking power out to thousands of homes, and sending 300 year old oak trees through roofs, and blowing barns and sheds into the next township. Reality is the electric company subsequently telling you that, “Yeah, your power is going to be out for awhile, because we’ve got several hundred miles of line to replace, and you’re at the bottom of the priority list. Oh, you have a newborn baby? A disabled grandmother living at home? Not our problem. Sorry.”

Reality is a winter storm blowing in and knocking out the power for the next week, as temperatures plummet to single digits, and nobody in your subdivision has a wood stove for back-up, because covenants in the HOA agreement.

Reality is what happened to parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas this summer, when the Arkansas River flooded to historic record levels, and destroyed entire communities worth of homes.

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I have a friend who lost power recently. Their power was out for a week. They ended up going and staying with family, because the weather was cold, and they didn’t have any back-up systems in place at the house. Dude is one of the most all-around competent, handy, people I’ve ever known. He’s a super hard worker, self-employed, and has dozens of employees. He’s genuinely, just an all-around competent dude.

This friend has tens of thousands of dollars worth of guns. He wears a concealed pistol everywhere he goes, and he keeps a rifle locked up, inside the cab of his truck, along with a plate carrier, “just in case.”

I asked him, “Why do you carry a gun?”

“Well, because there are bad people in the world, and I can’t rely on the police to be on hand to protect me and my wife and kid!” He’s right. It’s a really good answer. It’s solid. It’s legitimate.

“Cool. So, why don’t you have a back-up generator wired to the house? Why don’t you have a woodstove in the house, and a couple cords of wood in the backyard? What if, instead of a storm knocking out the power for a few days, this had been THE EVENT? What if your family had lost power too?”

He didn’t have an answer. Most people I’ve had similar discussions with, over the years, haven’t had answers…

Click here to continue reading at the Mountain Guerrilla Patreon page.

Viking Preparedness: TEOTWAWKI SHTF Government

Pastor Joe Fox of Viking Preparedness released one of his Patreon videos to his YouTube channel. This one briefly discusses government in your mutual assistance group, tribe, community, assembly, whatever in the event of major collapse/shtf event. His message is plan for how you will run things post event now or you won’t last as a community.

Forward Observer: SHTF Intelligence Gathering

Sam Culper at Forward Observer continues his video series on how an intelligence analyst prepares for an SHTF situation with this video on SHTF Intelligence Gathering.

THIS INFORMATION WILL BE ON THE TEST…

In today’s video, I’m talking about the importance of intelligence for emergency preparedness and some ways to get started in local intelligence gathering.

There will be an SHTF Intelligence webinar held by FO on Thursday, September 19th, 2019. Register here. http://shtfintel.com

Forward Observer: SHTF Early Warning

Sam Culper at Forward Observer continues his video series on how an intelligence analyst prepares for an SHTF situation with this video on early warning.

In this video, I continue my five-step security and preparedness planning process. Let’s take a look at a methodical way to develop “early warning” of local SHTF events.

Forward Observer: SHTF Security Planning

Samuel Culper at Forward Observer has up another video in his SHTF preparedness series. This one is titled SHTF Security Planning.

In this video, I continue my five-step security and preparedness planning process. Let’s start matching missions to threats, and then break down some basic mission planning.

Forward Observer will also be holding an SHTF Intelligence webinar on Thursday, Sept. 12, 2019 at 1900/7pm Central. Register by clicking here.

Forward Observer: Intelligence Analyst Prepares for SHTF, Part II

From Sam Culper at Forward Observer comes part two of his SHTF planning series. For Part I click here.:

My mission is to build a network for information sharing and to bring everyone up to par in terms of preparedness and security planning.

The logic: I may be very well prepared, but if I’m not aiding the area in becoming better prepared, then we risk mission failure for the entire region. And that’s bad for us.

If you agree that building community or tribe — or as I call it, “developing the human terrain” — is important, then I’d like to invite you on this journey with me.

I started a new video series entitled “How an Intelligence Analyst Prepares for SHTF” where I’m breaking down in detail how I’m preparing locally for our future challenges.

Here is Part II:

Forward Observer: How an Intelligence Analyst Prepares for SHTF

From Sam Culper at Forward Observer:

My mission is to build a network for information sharing and to bring everyone up to par in terms of preparedness and security planning.

The logic: I may be very well prepared, but if I’m not aiding the area in becoming better prepared, then we risk mission failure for the entire region. And that’s bad for us.

If you agree that building community or tribe — or as I call it, “developing the human terrain” — is important, then I’d like to invite you on this journey with me.

I started a new video series entitled “How an Intelligence Analyst Prepares for SHTF” where I’m breaking down in detail how I’m preparing locally for our future challenges.

It has five steps. If you follow aong with these videos and implement these concepts locally, then I believe you’ll catapult your readiness above and beyond your peers.

And I want to encourage you, if you haven’t already, to begin thinking or planning for a regional preparedness network of your own.

If you’re expecting me to talk about bug out bags and fire starters, then you’ve come to the wrong place. But if you want to learn how to develop local intelligence and how to achieve realistic expectations of the future… – if you want to learn about tactical- and strategic-level planning for those future threats, events, and conditions, – if you want to learn how to get ahead of the competition, then you’re in the right place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei86otQr9ss