Coronavirus Updates

One of many pictures on social media, purporting to show roadblocks being erected in China to enforce quarantine.

With the new announced deaths due to the virus, the mortality rate is closer to 4% (this estimate has now come back down to around 2.3% – 2/18/20) than the previously thought 2%. The WHO made an estimation on the infectious potential rating of the Wuhan coronavirus, pegging it at approximately a two. This puts the rate as similarly or more contagious than pandemic flu, but less that smallpox or polio.

Update 2/24/2020: Italy reports its seventh fatality and 219 confirmed cases. In Iran the official death toll is 12, but there have been reports from members of the government that it is actually as high as 50.

Update 2/23/2020: Confirmed cases 79,744 with 2,629 fatalities. Italy reports a third fatality and over 100 confirmed cases.

Update 2/22/2020: Confirmed cases 78,966 with 2,468 fatalities. South Korea is now reporting 556 confirmed cases. Italy has 76 confirmed cases and had a second fatality; Italy has declared a national emergency.

Update 2/21/2020: Confirmed cases 77,811 with 2,360 fatalities. There have been several reports now of cured patients in China having been reinfected with the virus. The director of the WHO says that the world is at a tipping point and time is running out to stop the virus before things get much worse, as infections in new countries continue to appear. Italy reports the country’s first COVID-19 fatality. In Italy’s Lombardy region, 50,000 in ten towns have been asked to self quarantine and public activities have been temporarily banned.

Update 2/20/2020: Confirmed cases 77,253 with 2,250 fatalities.

Update 2/19/2020: Confirmed cases 75,676 with 2,123 fatalities. A total of 621 people on the Diamond Princess have tested positive for coronavirus as Japan has started to release passengers from quarantine. A Japanese epidemiologist, Professor Kentaro Iwata, who spent a day on the ship described it as “completely inadequate in terms of controlling infections. There was not a single infection control professional on the ship, nor anyone professionally involved in infection prevention. The bureaucrats were in charge of everything.” In China, companies are telling workers that there is no money to pay them wages or that they shouldn’t have to pay full salaries to quarantined employees who don’t come to work.

Update 2/18/2020: Confirmed cases 75,198 with 2,009 fatalities. Japan has confirmed another 88 cases aboard the Diamond Princess, bringing the total of cruise infectees up to 542. The US state department and CDC have barred the US citizens who declined to board the evacuation flight from returning to the United States until next month. The original quarantine time is set to expire tomorrow. An analysis of over 44,000 laboratory confirmed cases of coronavirus has found the fatality rate to be 2.3%. Russia has banned all Chinese from entering the country. The UK-based Jaguar Land Rover factory will run out of Chinese parts in two  weeks, which may halt production lines. Thousands of shipping containers of frozen meat imports are piling up in China’s ports as a lack of truck drivers and closed transportation network severely slow their dispersal. In Tokyo, Japan, several companies are asking tens of thousands of employees to work from home in order to avoid an outbreak in the populous city. World health officials fear that Japan may be on the cusp of a large outbreak.

Update 2/17/2020: Confirmed cases 73,258 with 1,868 fatalities. There are now 896 cases outside of China. The numbers outside of China are currently doubling every six days. Of the US citizens evacuated from the Diamond Princess in Japan, fourteen have now tested positive for coronavirus. There are now 454 confirmed cases from that cruise ship.

Update 2/16/2020: Confirmed cases 71,244 with 1,770 fatalities. 760 million people are under quarantine in China. The US has chartered two 747 airplanes in order to evacuate approximate 400 US citizens quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.

Update 2/15/2020: Confirmed cases at 69,270 with 1,669 fatalities. Doctors working on the front lines of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak have told the Taiwan Times that it’s possible to become reinfected by the virus, leading to death from sudden heart failure in some cases. The cruise ship quarantined in Japan now has 355 confirmed cases.

Update 2/14/2020: Confirmed cases 67,100 with 1,526 fatalities. The numbers had come down a little from yesterday early in the day because of a reported counting error in China. Now the new numbers for today have been added. China has announced that everyone returning to Beijing from the LNY holidays will need to quarantine for 14 days. Japan has four new cases, including one man who had just returned to Japan from Hawaii. The cruise ship quarantined in Japan now has 218 confirmed cases. The US CDC director believes that we will get community-based transmission in the US. The CDC also announced that people experiencing flu-like symptoms in the US will be screened for the coronavirus. Egypt confirms their first coronavirus case; the first reported in Africa. A Chinese scientist at the South China University of Technology has written a paper which posits that “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.” Wuhan has increased the severity of their quarantine measures; residents are now required to stay in their homes except to receive treatment or provide government sanctioned services. Chinese people frustrated with their government’s lack of transparency have taken to making jokes:

Update 2/13/2020: Confirmed cases 65,246 with 1,487 fatalities. The CDC is preparing to announce the 15th US infection. The first fatality in Japan has occurred. Dr. Wang Guiqiang in Beijing says that it can take as little as two seconds to contract the virus in areas of high concentration. China’s National Health Commission authorizes war-time conditions on quarantine, supplies management, control and discipline. News reports that US administration sources suspect China of underreporting the number of cases by at least 100,000. An epidemiologist who advises the WHO said that the virus could infect two-thirds of the world population if it isn’t contained soon. The Norwegian Jewel cruise ship has been quarantined in Sydney while a Singaporean passenger is tested for coronavirus. Norwegian cruise lines has denied that the person being tested has any coronavirus symptoms.

Update 2/12/2020: Confirmed cases 60,310 with 1,368 fatalities. Two days after returning to work, a Chinese business has quarantined 200+ employees after an employee was found with the virus. First case has been confirmed in London. It is the UK’s ninth case.

Update 2/11/2020: Confirmed cases 45.171 with 1115 fatalities. The Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantined in Japan now has 174 confirmed cases.

Update 2/10/2020: Confirmed cases 43,101 with 1018 fatalities. President Xi warns China to be prepared for a long and grim battle with the virus. China’s National Health Commission has changed their definition of a “confirmed case” — a patient who tests positive by lab but shows no symptoms will no longer be counted as a confirmed case. This is contrary to the WHO definition of a confirmed case. The cruise ship quarantined in Japan now has had 136 confirmed cases of coronavirus – far more than any country outside of China. Some Chinese workers are returning to work today after the extended Lunar New Year holiday. Research firm Capital Economics says that the outbreak could cost the world $280 billion during the first quarter of 2020 based on projections for lowered GDP. In an interview, a Wuhan doctor relates his experiences saying that he saw a 4-5% fatality rate at least in the early cases and that the second week was when a patient would either start getting better or start getting much worse. There are reports that North Korea is concealing a large outbreak.

Update 2/9/2020: Confirmed cases at 40.553 with 910 fatalities. The WHO director-general warns, “There’ve been some concerning instances of onward nCoV spread from people with no travel history to CN. The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.” Exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui claims that the death toll is closer to 50,000 with 1.5 million infected.

Update 2/8/2020: Confirmed cases at 37,207 with 809 fatalities.

Update 2/7/2020: Confirmed cases at 34,394 with 720 fatalities. The city of Guangzhou, population 15 million, has imposed a quarantine, making it 400 million people quarantined in China. A cruise ship has docked in New Jersey with twelve passengers who are Chinese nationals quarantined over coronavirus fears after exhibiting symptoms. Royal Caribbean Cruises has banned the boarding of any passengers who have traveled through China, Hong Kong or Macau within fifteen days, or any China, Hong Kong, or Macau passport holder regardless of prior travel history. The cruise ship quarantined off Japan now has a total of 61 confirmed cases. A team of German scientists have determined that the coronavirus can survive for up to nine days on a surface, making it much more hardy than the common flu. Hong Kong and Taiwan report panic buying of food and antiseptics.

Update 2/6/2020: Confirmed cases 30,829 with 635 fatalities. Scientists now report that the antibodies patients produce don’t necessarily last very long, meaning that you can potentially catch the coronavirus multiple times and also meaning that a vaccine may difficult to produce. Dubai confirms a coronavirus death, the third outside of China. More than 7,000 remain quarantined on the two cruise ships (Japan and Hong Kong) reported earlier. So far forty-two of the passengers on the ship in Japan are confirmed with coronavirus while eight former passengers of the Hong Kong ship have tested positive for the coronavirus. More are expected to be confirmed. Dali City in China is accused of stealing a shipment of facemasks that was intended for Chongqing as shortages continue. According to the NY Times, a senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals. City investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts. “Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun Chunlan, vice premier for coronavirus response, said.

The Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the new coronavirus has died of the deadly virus.

Dr. Li

Dr. Li, 34, was hospitalized on January 12 after contracting the virus from his patient. He was confirmed to have the coronavirus on February 1, and The World Health Organization has just confirmed his passing…

Dr. Li Wenliang – who warned the public of a potential “SARS-like” disease in December 2019 – was questioned by local health authority, and warned:

“We solemnly warn you: If you keep being stubborn, with such impertinence, and continue this illegal activity, you will be brought to justice – is that understood?”

Dr, Li was later summoned by Wuhan police to sign a reprimand letter in which he was accused of “spreading rumors online” and “severely disrupting social order.”

Update 2/5/2020: Confirmed cases at 28,276 with 565 fatalities. A newborn in Wuhan tested positive for coronavirus; the first case of mother-to-child transmission. Hong Kong is testing 1800 cruise ship passengers and crew after reported fevers and other symptoms. Reports of pets in distress/starving in Wuhan after being left in homes while owners went on what was supposed to be brief holidays but who have been prevented from returning for ten days, now. The WHO reiterates that there are currently “no effective remedies” for coronavirus after stocks surge on reports that various companies are working on vaccines. Honk Kong closes crossings into mainland China.

Update 2/4/2020: Confirmed cases at 23,874 with 492 fatalities. The city of Wuhan is reportedly “effectively under martial law.” Japan confirmed 10 cases on board a cruise ship that had been quarantined.

Update 2/3/2020: Confirmed cases at 20,629 with 427 fatalities. There are over 171,000 cases under observation.  The US currently has 11 confirmed cases plus 198 people quarantined at March Air Base after being evacuated from China. The CDC is preparing as if coronavirus were the next pandemic. Hong Kong confirms their first death due to coronavirus – the second outside of mainland China. Thousand of Hong Kong medical works went on strike, demanding that the border with China be closed.

Update 2/2/2020: Confirmed cases at 17,205 with 362 fatalities. Eastern port city Wenzhou (pop. 9 million) is the first city outside of the central province of Hubei to impose quarantine restrictions. As with Huanggang yesterday, one person per residence is allowed to leave the house every two days to shop for necessities. The US director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, Dr. Anthony Fauci said, “It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic. But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.” Twenty French citizens evacuated from Wuhan are showing symptoms of coronavirus.

Update 2/1/2020: Confirmed cases at 14,550 with 304 fatalities. The city of Huanggang has banned residents from leaving their homes, in other words a home quarantine for everyone. One person per residence is allowed to leave every other day in order to shop for necessities. Huanggang is the first city to do this after Wuhan. Australia joined the US in temporarily blocking all foreigners who have recently visited China. China also confirmed a case of H5N1 bird flu in Hunan, prompting authorities to cull 17,828 chickens as a precaution. First fatality outside of China occurs in the Philippines.

Update 1/31/2020: Confirmed cases at 11,948 with 259 fatalities. India outlaws the shipping abroad of facemasks and other supplies to fight an epidemic. Russia announces first confirmed cases. A study in The Lancet claims that up to 75,000 might already be infected in the city of Wuhan. Iran cuts all flights to and from China. Some US airlines allowing pilots to decline flights to China. CDC officially quarantines 195 passengers, mostly Americans, who returned from Wuhan, China – first federal quarantine in fifty years. The United States declares a Public Health Emergency nationwide.

Update 1/30/2020: Confirmed cases at 9,821 and 213 fatalities. The number of suspected cases has risen to 15,238. On board an Italian cruise ship, 6,000 passengers have been quarantined after a passenger began showing signs of coronavirus (This turned out to be H1N2 virus). The UK and Hong Kong report shortages of facemasks. WHO says “whole world needs to be on alert now.” WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Human to human transmission of the coronavirus in Chicago confirmed by the CDC. A doctor in France has been hospitalized after treating a coronavirus patient, suspected of having contracted coronavirus himself.

Update 1/29/2020: Confirmed cases at 7,811 and 170 fatalities. China’s National Health Office suspects another 12,167 cases. Lines for face masks more than a kilometer long in Changhua City. Most shops in Guangzhou are closed and public transit empty. WHO reconvenes emergency committee on the novel coronavirus to decide whether the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

Update 1/28/2020: Confirmed cases now 6049 with 132 fatalities. North Korea and Mongolia have closed their borders with China. Travel much restricted between Hong Kong and mainland China. San Francisco activated their emergency operation center to prepare for coronavirus outbreak. Thai woman living in India may be first coronavirus death outside of China. CDC issues a level 3 warning to avoid all non-essential travel to China. UK Foreign Office warns Britons to avoid all non-essential travel to mainland China. Hong Kong researchers announce they have developed a vaccine which should be ready in about a year. Japan and Germany confirm that they each have a case of an infected citizen who did not travel to China but was exposed, in their own country, to infected persons through their work. The White House is considering suspending all flights between China and the US. The number of confirmed cases has now surpassed the total of the nine month, 2003 SARS outbreak.

Update 1/25/2020: Confirmed cases now 1400. Wuhan is attempting to build a new hospital in just six days. A doctor working with patients has died from the coronavirus. Many videos, unconfirmed, have shown up on social media showing bodies “piling up” in hallways in Wuhan hospitals.

Summarized at Zero Hedge on 1/24/2020:

Here’s a glimpse of new virus-related developments that occurred overnight.

  • China announces another 15 deaths in Hubei province
  • Total number of confirmed cases now 1,000+, 41 dead.
  • China restricts travel for 46+ million people across 16 cities as the death toll surges.
  • AFP reports that the virus has jumped to Europe, with three confirmed cases now in France.
  • Two deaths have been reported outside Wuhan.
  • Some residents displaying symptoms are being turned away from hospitals.
  • Hospitals in Wuhan make urgent pleas for help and supplies.
  • Beijing orders PLA medics to assist in Wuhan treating patients
  • UK and US governments tell citizens to avoid outbreak zones.
  • 63 suspected cases in US, Senator says 3 confirmed, with two reported so far in Illinois and California, and two suspected in Minnesota

 

South China Morning Post: Wuhan residents describe ‘doomsday’ scenes as patients overwhelm hospitals

Business Insider: Woman tracked down who gloated on social media about cheating airport detection while returning from Wuhan to France

Organic Prepper: It’s Not the Virus You Need to Worry About: It’s the System

Alt-Market: The Lies We Are Being Told About The Coronavirus

US Declares a Public Health Emergency

One day after the World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, the United States has declared a nationwide Public Health Emergency.

As a result of confirmed cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), on this date and after consultation with public health officials as necessary, I, Alex M. Azar II, Secretary of Health and Human Services, pursuant to the authority vested in me under section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, do hereby determine that a public health emergency exists and has existed since January 27, 2020, nationwide.

01/31/2020
_____________________________
Date
/s/
_____________________________
Alex M. Azar II

Continue reading “US Declares a Public Health Emergency”

Doom and Bloom Webinar: Viral Health Threats Facing America, Jan. 30

Join us this Thursday, January 30, 2020 at 9 PM EDT

LIVE Webinar

Viral Health Threats Facing America

with
Dr. Joe Alton and Amy Alton, ARNP

Aka. Dr. Bones & Nurse Amy

Signup:
https://preppernet.com/bones/
An email will be sent out on Wednesday with the details

A must listen to podcast on the Coronaviruses!
Prepping Academy’s Podcast
Coronaviruses
https://www.buzzsprout.com/794960/2574682-coronaviruses-alert-alert-alert

 

You can now view the recorded video on youtube, presentation starts around the twenty minute mark:

Peak Prosperity: Coronavirus Is Worse Than You’ve Been Told

Dr. Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity has a PhD in pathogenic biology. He’s not a practicing doctor, but he does have an understanding of viruses. In this video he gives an overview of the dangers of the coronavirus and explains why the airport screening methods in use are only security theater.

Doom and Bloom: Coronavirus

The Altons at Doom and Bloom medical have a short article up on what is a coronavirus and basic prophylaxis. The article was published on Jan. 22nd, so the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths have risen.

Masks Mandatory in Wuhan

Last week, we reported on a mysterious ailment first reported Dec. 8th, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Wuhan is the seventh most populous city in China with 11 million people. The previously unknown disease is now identified as a type of coronavirus. Medical officials are currently classifying it as a “class B” disease, which puts it in the same category as HIV/AIDS and Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

The rapidity and spread of the disease is impressive: When I began writing this article earlier in the day, there were 440 cases and 9 deaths, up from 200 cases last week. Later in the day, 555 cases and 17 deaths have been verified and other provinces in China are beginning to report cases.

(Note: I first reported on Ebola in early 2014, when 86 cases were reported. The epidemic eventually reached a total of 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths.)

Chinese authorities have taken the drastic measure of placing the entire city of Wuhan under quarantine, including the suspension of train and airline service, a step that suggests that many more cases are still unreported.

(1/23 update: Several U.S. airports are now conducting health screenings)

Although little is known at this point about the virus, it is certain that the disease is respiratory in nature and that human-to-human transmission (including medical personnel) is likely. For most respiratory infections, contagion is usually by airborne particles.

The first U.S. case has just been identified in a 30-year-old man from the state of Washington who recently arrived from China. Similar coronavirus victims have been found in Japan, Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea, almost all traced to an origin in Wuhan.

ABOUT CORONAVIRUSES

Fever may not be present in all patients including: young, elderly, immunosuppressed or taking fever-reducing medications; many only have respiratory symptoms

The Wuhan virus is from the same family of coronaviruses as SARS, which killed over 800 people worldwide in an outbreak toward the end of 2002. It is also similar to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), another epidemic disease. Although not officially named, the new virus is designated 2019-nCOV.

Coronaviruses are viruses made from RNA genetic material. One of the larger RNA viruses, coronavirus is so named from the Latin “corona” (crown or halo), from projections on the virus which give the appearance of a crown.

Coronaviruses are thought to be responsible for a large number of common colds in humans. Coronavirus colds seem to be associated with more major symptoms like fever or sore throat than colds caused by rhinoviruses, another common cause. 2019-nCOV seems to cause even worse respiratory symptoms than the typical coronavirus. Coronaviruses can also lead to pneumonia, either directly or through a secondary bacterial infection due to a weakened immune system.

ABILITY TO CONTAIN THE VIRUS

Coronavirus has crown-like projections

Chinese officials are probably wise to enact quarantine orders, as there is only one lab (called a Biosafety Level 4 lab or BSL-4) in their entire country with the capability of handling severe outbreaks. Luckily for them, it is located in Wuhan. The facility can care for victims of highly contagious diseases like SARS, Ebola, etc.

Personnel in a BSL-4 lab are subject to the strictest protocols: They must change their clothing on entering and shower upon exiting. Full-body hazmat suits must be worn while working in the lab and decontaminated afterwards. The facility is required to be a separate building or a wing properly isolated with separate air filtration systems.

The chances of spread of the new coronavirus is increased by the upcoming Chinese New Year, when it is thought that millions of Chinese citizens will be traveling throughout the world.

(1/22 Update: China has just issued a travel ban for the city of Wuhan; public transportation in the city is also suspended)

Having learned lessons from our experience with Ebola, the United States is better prepared to deal with highly contagious outbreaks of infection.

HISTORY OF RECENT VIRAL OUTBREAKS IN CHINA

masks

The presence of any biosafety 4 lab (BSL-4) inside China at all is due to the 2003 viral SARS outbreak. SARS reached epidemic proportions quickly, with 8000 cases leading to 750 deaths worldwide. Chinese authorities hope to have 7 such units built by 2025, but only the Wuhan lab is operational.

Although the use of face masks is common (and wise) in China, Wuhan has declared their use manadatory while in crowded locations. This requirement is causing a shortage of masks in the area, which could eventually lead to the same worldwide.

WHAT TO DO ABOUT CORONAVIRUS AND OTHER VIRUS OUTBREAKS

As of yet, no cure nor vaccine is available to combat coronavirus. Treatment at present focuses on treating symptoms and supporting a victim through the infection, while protecting the healthy from the disease.

Contagious illnesses like coronavirus, however, may morph into epidemics, or is widely distributed enough, pandemics. If you are preparedness-minded, you might consider a personal protection “pandemic kit” (or several) and plan out how you would care for a person with a contagious disease if the hospitals were full. Have you thought about what goes into putting together an effective epidemic sick room?

The CDC recommends:

  •  Washing your hands with soap and water frequently
  •  Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with dirty hands
  • Avoid close contact with sick people

If you are sick, you can protect others by:

  • Staying home until fully recovered
  •  Avoiding close contact with others
  • Cover your nose and mouth when sneezing or coughing
  • Keep objects and surfaces in your home or workspace clean and disinfected (bleach mixed 1:10 with water will do)

Alhough the CDC isn’t recommending this as of yet, having a supply of N95 face masks isn’t a bad idea.

By the way, while I was writing this, I received a notice sent to all physicians in the state of Florida, warning about….coronoavirus.

Doom and Bloom Medical: Coronavirus: The Next Pandemic?

 

The Medic Shack: Coronavirus, 2019NcoV. Do We Need to Be Worried?

Organic Prepper: Pandemic Preparedness

Daisy at The Organic Prepper has an article up about the Wuhan Coronavirus and what you can do now to prepare. From what is currently known, this coronavirus has approximately a 2% mortality rate. That is considerably lower than some other viruses that have made the news over the years, but while it is low it is about the same as the Spanish Flu pandemic that killed millions around 1918. Should you be worrying? It’s too early to tell right now. We don’t know if containment will be achieved or how easily it may spread. But if not this one, at some point another pandemic will sweep the world causing mass casualties, so it is good to have some preparation for the event.

…In Wuhan, supermarket shelves were empty and local markets sold out of produce as residents hoarded supplies and isolated themselves at home. Petrol stations were overwhelmed as drivers stocked up on fuel, exacerbated by rumours that reserves had run out. Local residents said pharmacies had sold out of face masks.

“When I saw the news when I woke up, I felt like I was going to go crazy. This is a little too late now. The government’s measures are not enough,” said Xiao, 26, a primary schoolteacher in Wuhan, who asked not to give her full name.

Few pedestrians were out and families cancelled plans to get together for the new year holiday. Special police forces were seen patrolling railway stations. Residents and all government workers are now required to wear face masks while in public spaces. Most outbound flights from the city’s Tianhe airport were cancelled. (source)

Those who wish to be prepared should note the speed at which quarantines were put in place in China. Don’t delay placing orders for supplies, fueling up your vehicle, and adding last-minute preps to your stockpile. You may already have many of the supplies you need, so be sure to do an inventory before panic-buying.

However, if you discover you do need supplies, get them now. If you wait until a quarantine is announced, you’ve waited too long and you’ll be out there fighting for resources with everyone else in your area.

Whatever your plan is, don’t delay taking action. Otherwise, you might find yourself in the same situation as 20 million Chinese people who were suddenly quarantined.

Click here to read the entire article at The Organic Prepper.