Reminder to Check on Vulnerable Neighbors

There have been some stories shared on social media of people being carefully approached by strangers who are in the high-risk categories for COVID-19 (older adults and people with heart disease, diabetes or lung disease) and asked for help with shopping or other resources, because the strangers are afraid to expose themselves by going into crowded stores themselves. Sometimes they are being given cash and a shopping list, which exposes these high-risk people to both theft and then not having supplies. If you have neighbors whom you know are in a high risk group, it is a good idea to contact them (ideally via a remote method that doesn’t expose them to anything you may be carrying) and ask if you can assist them with any preparations. You could also print them an OK/HELP sign so that they can notify neighbors if they need assistance, and the people for whom they have phone numbers aren’t able to respond to help.

Be mindful that you still need to practice good hygiene to prevent infection in either direction when passing off goods or payment.

Ranier Redoubt: Are You Two Weeks Ready?

Ranier Redoubt has an article up Are You and Your Family Two Weeks Ready? on getting prepared for two weeks if you’re behind the curve on getting ready.

For the past few years Washington State has advised people to be “Two Weeks Ready” (a change from the old 3-days recommendation). This means having your own food, water and other supplies [i.e. Toilet Paper, Hand Sanitizer, Hygiene and Cleaning Supplies] in sufficient quantity to last for two weeks. People must be ready to act on their own for at least two weeks.
Ready.Gov has said “Being prepared for an emergency isn’t just about staying safe during a storm or a disaster. It’s also about how to stay comfortable, clean, fed, and healthy afterwards.” 

With all of the recent comments and memes about people hoarding toilet paper because of COVID-19 / coronavirus fears, we wonder how many of these people failed to prepare to care for themselves and their families BEFORE these current events.

If you are one of the people who needs to build a preparedness kit, you can still do so. Right now there is not an actual shortage of basic supplies, rather the “just in time” delivery system used by many retailers can’t keep up with demand in the compressed timeframe. Products are still being manufactured and shipped to stores, there is just a gap in delivery times. Stores don’t keep large quantities products stocked in the backroom or at a local warehouse anymore.

Take the current COVID-19 concerns as a sign that maybe having a few preparedness supplies isn’t such a bad idea. Build your preparedness kit a little at a time. There is no need to hoard or try to buy out every store in town. Your kit will depend on your own needs. Once you take a look at the basic items, consider what unique needs your family might have, such as supplies for pets or seniors. Remember, you are not necessarily “bugging out”. In many cases you will be “bugging in” staying home.

If you have to stay home because of a community lockdown or quarantine, in all likelihood your electric power will still be on, clean water will flow from the tap, and your sewer / septic system will still be working. Keep this in mind as you build your kit, but be prepared if any of these systems fail.

The list below is from Ready.Gov. It is a guideline for getting started, but you should make adjustments to meet your specific needs.

Water—at least a gallon per person, per day
Non-perishable food (such as dried fruit, peanut butter, or energy bars)
First aid kit
Cash
Prescription medicines
Extra batteries or an alternative power source
Matches in a waterproof container
Toothbrush, toothpaste, soap
Hygiene and sanitation items (toilet paper, feminine hygiene products)
Paper plates, plastic cups and utensils, paper towels
Battery-powered or hand-cranked radio
Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person
Flashlights
Whistle to signal for help
Can opener (manual)
Local maps
Pet and service animal supplies
Baby supplies (formula, diapers, wipes etc.)
Extra pair of eyeglasses

Organic Prepper: How to Talk to Creditors When You Can’t Pay

Daisy Luther at The Organic Prepper has an article on How to Talk to Creditors When You Can’t Pay Your Bills. With some businesses closing permanently and others temporarily closed over the coronavirus pandemic, many people are put in an economic bind with no income coming in. While Washington state has announced some coming benefits for workers who are quarantined or laid off because of the coronavirus, we don’t know how long it will take to file, eligibility, or how it affects hourly workers who are not laid off or quarantined, but are not working because they business is closed or slow.

As our economy gets rocked by the coronavirus outbreak, lots of folks are already beginning to have financial problems. For others, they see money trouble on the horizon.

These issues are occurring for several reasons. Some businesses are cutting back staff or hours preemptively so they can survive financially. Other businesses are laying people off because of supply chain shortages – if you can’t get parts to repair furnaces, you can’t pay people to repair furnaces. The travel and shipping industries are already feeling the pain from the global outbreak.

So if you aren’t having money problems now, it’s very possible you will be soon.

What to do when your income slows down

This is something I’ve written about in detail in more than one article. Here’s a detailed article about job loss but the strategies would also work if your hours are cut. The basics are:

  1. Know your rights. You may have some recourse if your hours are cut or if you are laid off. If you have any type of employment contract, now is the time to go over it with a fine-tooth comb. Don’t sign anything until you’ve taken the time to calm down and think things through.
  2. Begin a total spending freeze. Give it a couple of days before you spend a dime. You’ll need to re-assess your budget.
  3. Apply for unemployment. Whether you lost your job completely or your hours were cut, you may qualify for unemployment or other benefits. You’ve been paying taxes for just this reason, so don’t be too proud to accept the help.
  4. Create a budget for necessities. Sit down and create a budget for the absolute bare minimum expenditures.
  5. Slash luxury spending. Now isn’t the time to go on a vacation, join a gym, or eat out at restaurants.
  6. Look for new streams of income. If you can, look for odd jobs, start a small business that doesn’t require an investment, or use your expertise to begin consulting in your field.
  7. Sell stuff. All that stuff you’ve been meaning to go through in the basement just might be the key to keeping a roof over your head.  Sell things online or in person, keeping in mind your personal safety.
  8. Audit your budget. Take the time to see where you can slash your spending. Can you cut your fixed or variable expenses?

Take action right away to stop the bleeding of money. A few dollars may not seem like much right now but it could be a much bigger deal in the future. You may need to make drastic cuts.

Make a list of your creditors.

Once you have created your new emergency budget, it’s time to take a look at those to whom you owe money. Some of these will be necessary expenditures. Keeping a roof over your head, the utilities on, a car in the driveway, and remaining insured. are likely the most important expenses.

Other expenditures are things like unsecured debt: credit cards, student loans, and personal loans. You may have some secured debt on things with which you’re willing to part – second cars, recreational vehicles, etc.

Write down all these expenses, your account numbers, your minimum monthly payments, and contact information for the creditor.

Before anybody jumps in and says, “You shouldn’t have any credit card debt” or “I bought my car in cash,” remember that I’m writing about a change in circumstances here. Sure it’s better to be debt-free, but when you have found yourself in a crunch, it’s all about surviving the rough time, not about beating yourself up for previous decisions.

Contact them one by one.

Next comes the part that may be difficult for some – you need to contact your creditors and see if they can help.

Keep in mind that many people are running into difficulty right now and these companies know it. Some places may have already authorized negotiations with debtors in expectation of the difficulty in which you currently find yourself.

Contact them in order from most essential to least. Below you’ll find some tips to help you guide the conversation.

How to talk to creditors… (continues)

Click here to continue reading at The Organic Prepper.

Arthur Guiterman: Strictly Germ-Proof

On a lighter note, sanitization poetry by Arthur Guiterman.

Strictly Germ-Proof

The Antiseptic Baby and the Prophylactic Pup
Were playing in the garden when the Bunny gamboled up;
They looked upon the Creature with a loathing undisguised;–
It wasn’t Disinfected and it wasn’t Sterilized.

They said it was a Microbe and a Hotbed of Disease;
They steamed it in a vapor of a thousand-odd degrees;
They froze it in a freezer that was cold as Banished Hope
And washed it in permanganate with carbolated soap……

In sulphurated hydrogen they steeped its wiggly ears;
They trimmed its frisky whiskers with a pair of hard-boiled shears;
They donned their rubber mittens and they took it by the hand
And ’lected it a member of the Fumigated Band.

There’s not a Micrococcus in the garden where they play;
They bathe in pure iodoform a dozen times a day;
And each imbibes his rations from a Hygienic Cup–
The Bunny and the Baby and the Prophylactic Pup.

Italians in quarantine have been keeping each other company by singing, dancing, and playing music from balconies. Taking time for moral support is always important.

Weekend Weather Alert for Yakima Valley, Mar 13-14

In case you’ve been distracted by pandemic news and haven’t been paying attention to the weather, there are cold temperatures, wind and snow forecast for this weekend.

From the National Weather Service:

Issued: 8:21 AM Mar. 13, 2020 – National Weather Service

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.An arctic cold front will bring much colder air into the region
late today through the weekend. At the same time, an upper level
storm system will bring abundant moisture from north to south,
with low elevation rain and mountain snow changing over to all
snow overnight tonight. Moderate to heavy mountain snow can be
expected over the Cascades and their east slopes and the Blues
and Wallowas of northeast Oregon/southeast Washington. In
addition, strong northeast winds across the Columbia Basin, the
Yakima and Kittitas Valleys will lead to areas of blowing and
drifting snow late tonight into Saturday, leading to treacherous
travel conditions. The snow should gradually become lighter by
Sunday, but unseasonably cold temperatures will linger on.
Yakima Valley-Lower Columbia Basin of Washington-Simcoe Highlands-
Including the cities of Naches, Sunnyside, Toppenish, Yakima,
Connell, Prosser, Tri-Cities, Goldendale, and Bickleton
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
Winds gusting as high as 45 mph, leading to blowing and drifting
snow in some areas.

* WHERE...Yakima Valley, Lower Columbia Basin of Washington and
Simcoe Highlands.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could
significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

AYWtGS: Handling Quarantine with Kids

Karen at A Year Without the Grocery Store has an article up – Got Kids? How Do You Handle a Coronavirus Quarantine With Them? – with some suggestions on handling quarantine without going crazy.

We all love our children.  But despite that love, want to see parents cringe quickly?  Tell them that they are going to be stuck inside with their children for three months or more.  More than that, they cannot leave their home.

That thought in itself is incredibly overwhelming!  Add to it, getting ready to cut yourselves off from the world, it’s enough to devastate any parent.  How do you handle being cooped up with your kids for months on end?  Don’t stress, there are answers that don’t include 24/7 TV.

Let me start by saying, I’m a mom to five kids ages 8-17.  I don’t take the notion of being stuck inside my home for months with my kids lightly.  While younger kids will have an easier time staying home, older kids are going to feel the isolation much more.

So how do we handle a quarantine with kids?

When I was pregnant with my second set of twins, I was in the hospital every week for a non-stress test.  I had a friend who was pregnant at the same time.  She was hospitalized with placenta previa.  She wasn’t just hospitalized for a week or two.  No, she was hospitalized for more than TWELVE weeks.  And during that time, she was mostly confined to half of a small room.

How in the world did she keep herself sane being remanded to that small room for so long?  Some of her tips and tricks will work for us as we talk about how we’re going to help our kids (and ourselves) through what could be a long quarantine.

(1) Start Your Day Off Healthy

Make sure that you are starting your day off with a multi-vitamin, vitamin C, and a probiotic.  I would also suggest that you spend time in God’s word and prayer at the beginning of your day.  We love to sing together as a family, and this would be a good time to do that as well.

(2) Make sure your kids are learning.

Whether you homeschool or not, make sure that your kids are still learning.   Even if you send your kids to school, make sure that they are bringing their school books home with them as you get closer to keeping them home from school in a quarantine.   Or you could put together a school kit so that you will always have items to help your children learn if they can’t go to school.

For me, it’s really simple.  I have three children still in school.  And since we homeschool, they will all continue doing their school just like normal.  That will go a HUGE way toward helping things still feel normal.

What about older kids who have graduated and are working while still living at home?  Make sure that you have conversations with them now about when you are going to tell them that they can’t continue working for a while.  Have them talk to their employers NOW to manage expectations.

These older children should still be learning!  As I was going through totes today taking stock of everything for our quarantine, I found suture needles and other implements for doing stitches and practice skin.  Find a YouTube video on practice suturing and have them learn how to do sutures.  Or have you or your kids ever made bread or noodles from scratch?  Why not use some of that time to learn how to do a new skill?

(3) Make sure that you and your kids are moving daily.

If you have little kids, it’s obvious why they should do physical activity every day.  But what about older kids who aren’t bouncing off the walls?  Why should they (and you) exercise daily?

Studies have shown that mice were divided into three groups and all infected with the flu.  One group was sedentary.  One group jogged on a wheel for 20-30 minutes (modest activity for mice), and another group of mice was kept on a wheel for 2 1/2 – 3 hours.  Fifty percent of the sedentary group died.  SEVENTY percent of the mice who ran for 2 1/2-3 hours died!  Only 12 percent of the mice who were kept on the wheel for 20-30 minutes died.

Even if you aren’t going to expose yourself to the virus, keeping your body moving a modest amount can help your body better handle whatever is thrown at it.

Now, not everyone has a treadmill or a stationary bike, I get that.  But do you have Amazon Prime?  You can learn (or practice) yoga with your kids using this free video.  Don’t like yoga?  Here’s an exercise video called “Marching Low Impact.”  Or buy a digital copy of “Sweating to the Oldies” and sweat (and laugh and laugh) with your kids.

(4)  Play at least one game a day with your kids. 

This is a great time to spend time playing some of those games that you don’t play regularly either because you haven’t taken the time to learn them or because they take a little more time to play.

Do you have two decks of cards?  All you need is a Hoyle Card book, and you’ll have hours of fun at your hands.

Another thing that might fall into this category is putting together puzzles.

(5) Take a skill that you have to the next level.

Do you have a skill that you enjoy – like knitting?  Take it to the next level.  Maybe you could learn how to do cables or knit in multiple colors.  I’ve learned a bit about spinning, but don’t take a lot of time to actually practice it.  This would be the perfect time to take that skill to the next level.

How Do You Handle a Quarantine with Kids?(6) Schedule time for kids to talk with their friends using Facetime or Skype.

Only one of our kids has a cell phone.  And her cell phone is one for which we purchase minutes.  That means that calls aren’t a regular part of our kids lives.  Even if your kids have cell phones, talking with friends makes so much more of an impact when they can see them.

What if your kids could ‘virtually’ get together with their friends regularly during a quarantine?  They would be able share stories of what’s going on, what they are learning, and the time would pass so much faster.

(7) Enjoy movies and TV shows in moderation.

There are few things that make me feel more claustrophobic than sitting in front of a screen watching mindless TV too long.  I will often feel the need to get up and do something when I’ve got an Amazon or Netflix show going too much.  But that being said, sometimes, we just need to let our minds go to a more fun place and a movie or a TV show can do that for us.

(8) Most Importantly set a routine for your days.  How Do You Handle a Quarantine with Kids?

I say this last because I wanted to give you a lot of options for filling a routine.  Why do you need a routine?

When I was pregnant with my second set of twins, I was in the hospital on a weekly basis for non-stress tests.  I had a friend who was pregnant at the same time, but she was admitted to the hospital because of placenta previa and was at high risk for hemorrhaging.

The thing is that she wasn’t just in the hospital for one or two weeks, she was in the hospital for TWELVE weeks!  She wasn’t just confined to the limits of the hospital.  She was almost exclusively confined to her small hospital room, which she had to share with another person from time to time.

How did she keep from going crazy while she was confined to such a small space?!?

The most important thing that she did (by her own admission) was to set a routine for her day.  She would start it with time in God’s word and prayer.  Then she would spend around two hours scrapbooking.  After that, she would watch TV for about two hours.  Then she would work on a crocheting something for an hour or two.  Her kids and her husband would come and visit her for a couple of hours later in the day.  She would spend some time reading after that.  Then she would spend some time coloring in a coloring book.

Her routine kept her from going completely stir crazy.  So I want you to take 10-15 minutes and using activities from above or others that you come up with on your own to set a schedule for yourself and your children so that you have a routine for when you all are quarantined.

Will the routine change once you get into your quarantine?  Absolutely!  Some things will work.  Some things won’t work as you envisioned them, but you’ll be giving yourself a framework for your family.  Change it around, turn it on its head if need be.  But make sure that you actually have a routine so that everyone doesn’t go completely crazy!

What About You?

What other ideas do you have on how to keep your kids from going crazy during a quarantine?  How long do you anticipate that your family will need to be in quarantine?  Are you concerned about missing any really big events because of the quarantine?  I’d love to hear!  Share with us in the comments so that we can all be better prepared.

Together lets Love, Learn, Practice, and Overcome!

There are links in this post.  Some of the links may be affiliate links.  Some of the links may not be.

Medic Shack: Basics of Herbal Medicine Webinar,

The Medic Shack usually teaches The Basics of Herbal Medicine as a live, in-person class, but because of the pandemic is moving the class on-line. It will tentatively start on March 28th and go for 2 or 3 weekends.

 I have some irons in the fire, and one of them was a local class on the basics of herbal medicine. This was going to be at our house in Summerville SC. We can do up to 6 or so folks at a time. Well with this virus and everything all Topsy turvey, we’re going to do it on line over a few days.

This will be a live webinar, with a study guide and suggested equipment. This is not a herbal certification course like my bud Cat Ellis teaches. This is a get your feet wet on making tinctures, tisanes and  decoctions, What you should treat and what should be left to the pros. Going to do a tentative start date of the weekend of the 28th of March. We can knock this our in 2 or 3 weekends. I’ll take as long as needed to make sure everyone’s questions are answered. We haven’t worked out the cost for the class, but it will be a lot less expensive than the in person one would be. Hope to see you folks there!

This may be the safest way to have classes…

Topics to be covered:images

• Herbal theory
• Introduction to making Tinctures and Herbal teas
• Colloidal silver• Pain control
• Herbal clot accelerators,
• Bites, burns and Skin irritations
• Respiratory and Allergens
• Equipment and safety considerations
• Anti-microbial and Anti-viral

Webinar announcement page

Webinar Signup page

Front Sight Info on Church Shootings

The information below was going to be presented at tonight’s general assembly (which has been cancelled) as part of the presentation on church shootings and security.

From Front Sight:

The first video below is Front Sight’s professional review and sensitive critique of the actions of those involved in the gunfight, as captured on video, at the West Freeway Church of Christ in White Settlement, Texas. Watch this SPECIAL Reality Check and ask yourself, “What can YOU do in 1.5 seconds?”

The second video, the Special Supplement to the first video, shows you how the entire situation could have been avoided entirely, or at the least, forced the armed confrontation to occur OUTSIDE the church rather than inside, where innocent people were placed in danger…

Front Sight Video

Special Supplement video…

Front Sight Video

 

 

Dr. Gabriel Cousens’ COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus Protection and Prevention

The information below from Dr. Gabriel Cousens was going to presented as part of a health/essential oils presentation during the general assembly meeting tonight (which has been cancelled):

COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus
March 10th, 2020 UPDATE
Protection & Prevention
The COVID-19 Coronavirus question, on one level, is getting more complicated, as a certain amount of disinformation contradicting the basic data is emerging. Some say it’s an internet hoax, others say it’s not that serious, and others are saying it needs to be taken seriously. Even though some are saying, “No problem – It’s a minor threat”, it would be a major mistake not to take the proper hygiene and anti-viral nutritional protocol precautions and start the immune system building protocol as outlined in my Coronavirus Protection Protocol. There’s an old Sufi saying, “Love everybody (hoax or not), but tie up your camel (follow the prevention protocol).” This means we must act preventatively. My position as a former lieutenant commander in the Public Health Service is to give advice that will at least make people healthier (if I’m wrong) and save lives (if I’m right).
The present evidence strongly suggests that although there is some controversy, COVID-19 is a laboratory-made weaponized bio-terror virus. This virus is a manmade chimera, which is not actually normally found in nature.
It also turns out that the nations with the most advanced 5G rollouts also have the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases and mortality. There is clear statistical evidence of these 5G-exposed populations have the highest infection rates and death rates. It has been observed that those nations with the most powerful 5G networks are having the biggest outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus to date. It is well-known that 5G not only is associated with higher rates of depression, paranoia, and anxiety, but also higher rates of weakened immunity, cancer, heart disease, and type-2 diabetes. There are over 10,000 studies showing that 4G is associated with decreased immune system function and chronic disease. Researchers are also claiming that 5G is at least 100 times more potent than 4G, so it’s no surprise that 5G would be associated with higher morbidity, vulnerability, and mortality from this weaponized coronavirus, COVID-19. Based on the available science, it’s reasonable to theorize that 5G could specifically activate the pathological potentialities of the virus. Although this is only probable speculation and has not been totally proven, it still brings us back to prevention with an additional point – the importance of fighting against 5G wherever they threaten to roll it out, for our sakes and the sake of humanity. It took 30 years to absolutely prove smoking causes cancer; we cannot afford to wait that long.
Research from the well-respected Lancet journal out of England shows that people should be quarantined at least 24 days, while others are saying it should be up to 1 month before being released back into the public area. Whether it is by ignorance or by malefic choice, we’re releasing people into the public after only 14 days of quarantine, if they are quarantined at all. It’s not clear who’s making these unscientific decisions but brings us back to the fact that it is our responsibility to take care of ourselves. The estimates are that if we really take care of ourselves, and/or with hospital treatment, the average fatality rate is between 2% to 3.4% depending on age and degree of wellness. Others, who have direct contact with Chinese sources are claiming it may be 10 times higher. A statement made by Anthony Fauci, MD, director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in an editorial published on 2/28/20 in the New England Journal of Medicine, suggested that COVID-19’s mortality rate is “considerably less than 1%”. The worst mortality rates, which increase with age and lack of proper health and hygiene, could be 15-18% fatality rate if over 70 years old; others say this approximate 15% mortality rate is for those over 80 years old; and still others say these higher rates apply to those as young as 60. Other scientific estimates of the mortality rate are: 8% for ages 70-79 and 3.6% for those ages 60-69. Mortality rates seem to increase with age. Kids under 10 seem to be quite safe with a projected fatality rate of .04%. The bottom line, again, is that we have the ability to protect ourselves from this, and there’s no need to go into fear, but we do need to pay attention.
As the statistics unfold, the mortality rate for COVID-19 appears to be roughly 30 times greater than the flu, although the rate of spread for the flu virus is greater. Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiology professor, has stated, “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.” He predicts that at least 40-70% of the US population will contract the virus. Most medical experts believe that while it can’t be contained that 98% of the population will do ok. COVID-19 is a lower respiratory illness, as opposed to the cold, which generally effects the upper respiratory system.
As of March 10th, 2020, an estimated 110,000 people worldwide have been affected by COVID-19, but others estimate at least 300,000 people in China alone have been infected. Of those infected, 81% have a mild infection, 14% have a moderate infection, and 5% become critical and need hospitalization. Two-thirds of those who have died are men. 80% are older than 60 years, and 75% had underlying chronic diseases, such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and high blood pressure.
In an attempt to gain some perspective, current statistics show that on a single day, such as on February 10th, 2020, 108 people in China died from COVID-19. Even if the numbers are tenfold higher for COVID-19, it brings it to 1,080 people dying in a day, which is still less than all other causes of death per day, except suicide.
·     1,660 Americans died of cancer.
·     2,150 Americans died from heart attacks.
·     123 Americans died from suicide.
·     3,287 Americans died from car accidents.
·     8,500 children around the world starved to death.
Obviously, the deaths per day from COVID-19 was significantly lower than other causes of death for that day. Also, the 1918 influenza pandemic had a mortality rate of around 5%, but enormous impact because it was highly contagious. The idea, of course, it not to become a statistic for any of these causes.
Compared to other lethal viruses, COVID-19 also has a lower mortality rate at this state of the pandemic. For example, according to WHO, the mortality rate for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is approximately 10% and for MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), it is 30%. COVID-19’s mortality rate may be as low as 1%, but is probably, based on current statistics, at least 2-3.4%. As you can see, relatively speaking, on a global level, COVID-19 has a lower mortality rate than these other major viral infection threats, but generally a higher infectivity rate than all but the H1N1 epidemic of 2009/2010. The last SARS outbreak had more fatalities than the current COVID-19 currently has. Currently 110 countries have reported COVID-19 infections; second to the H1N1 outbreaks. In general, it seems, at this point, that the COVID-19 virus is less deadly than MERS or SARS, but neither have captured the headline attention that COVID-19 has received.

Continue reading “Dr. Gabriel Cousens’ COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus Protection and Prevention” →

Forward Observer: COVID-19 Update

Intelligence analysis and training company Forward Observer sent out an email this morning with some COVID-19 news/updates.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Confirmed cases in the U.S. reached 1,257 — nearly a 24 percent increase from yesterday. Yesterday’s increase was 28 percent. The truth is that these numbers are way off. First, Chinese officials estimate that the U.S. had over 9,000 cases earlier this month, based on international flight data from Wuhan. Some American health officials are saying there’s likely to already be 20,000 cases nationwide.

A happy-medium estimate of 10,000 cases at a conservative 10 percent daily growth rate would put us over 3,000,000 cases in the next 60 days, by mid-May. While there may be some mitigating factors to exponential growth, we’re facing an incredibly disruptive future.

THE BAD NEWS: Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician for the U.S. Senate, warned senators on Tuesday that anywhere from 70 to 150 million Americans will contract COVID-19.

To put this into perspective, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 36 million hospital admissions in the U.S. each year. If 20 percent of all COVID-19 patients require hospitalization, then there could be 14-30 million extra hospital admissions. Now, China reports that about 15 percent of patients require hospitalization, but Italy says that 50 percent of COVID-19 patients have required hospitalization! If we see anywhere near that range, there’s simply not going to be enough room or staff to treat that many people.

THE GOOD NEWS: The University of Maryland School of Medicine announced that the spread of COVID-19 should ease this year as temperatures rise. That’s the first medical institution I’ve seen backing that theory. Officials warned, however, that more northerly latitudes could continue to see outbreaks into summer.

AND THEN: That pretty much confirms that COVID-19 will be back in the fall for another round of outbreaks.

U.S.: President Trump announced a series of policy steps he’s taking to stop the spread of COVID-19. By far, the most disruptive policy is that travel from most European countries will effectively end for 30 days starting on Friday. American citizens and permanent residents will be exempt.

Boeing leads the pack of U.S.-based corporations tapping credit lines, saying they’ll take out a $13.8 billion loan as insurance against a cash flow crunch. Hilton Hotels is in for $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, San Francisco is reporting hotel revenue dropping by 46 percent, 35 percent in Seattle, and 20 percent in New York. With spring break upon us and summer break right around the corner, it’s going to be a tough and sparse few months for the tourism industry. Port activity was also down 20 percent on the West Coast for the month of February. (Although, by looking at the charts, they’re used to it: they saw worse in previous years during the height of the trade war.)

ECONOMIC WARNING: BlackRock, the nation’s largest asset manager with $7 trillion AUM, advised clients that they don’t see the COVID-19 pandemic “as an [economic] expansion-ending event” — just as long as an effective federal response is enacted. Still, they see “a sharp and deep economic slowdown in the near term.” (Analyst Comment: This outlook underscores their faith that massive fiscal stimulus and favorable monetary conditions can blunt any effects leading to a 2008-esque meltdown. Yeah, my fingers are crossed, too.)

Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin advised clients that the 11-year bull market run is over, and painted a bleak picture of economic reality: “Supply chains have been disrupted and final demand has declined for many industries. Travel is contracting sharply as both individuals and businesses restrict movement. Airlines, hotels, cruises, and casinos report plunging demand, lower occupancy, and cancellations. Employees are being furloughed.”

JPMorgan Chase is alerting its clients that “a market sell-off of this magnitude implied a 65-75% chance of recession in the next year,” but a “timely, strong counter-policy response” and “a peak of COVID-19” in the coming weeks should prove the market drop an overreaction. (AC: JPMorgan Chase is expecting a peak in the coming weeks, which is at odds with what epidemiologists are saying when they expect a continuation for months.)

SHORTAGES: Coca-Cola warned of potential shortages of Diet Coke, due to supplier disruption. (The next panic buy?) Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble is warning of coming shortages, as well, for the same reason. According to one economist, the “worst impact for businesses [will] come in April and May.” (AC: At some point, accusations of “panic buying” will no longer be sufficient to explain empty shelves, and the reality of shortages will set in. Based on what I’m hearing from China, there will be a period of weeks where shortages will persist. Those shortages could be sporadic or regional, based on where your local retailers source their goods. Regardless: it’s coming.) //END

STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE: https://members.forwardobserver.com

Each and every morning, I’m looking out for my readers. If you sign up and you’re not satisfied, just email me within seven days and I’ll refund your subscription. You literally have nothing to lose and a lot of warning signals to gain. You can sign up here: https://members.forwardobserver.com

Always Out Front,
Samuel Culper

Rutherford Institute: How Will the Constitution Fare During a Nationwide Lockdown?

Constitutional attorney John Whitehead at the Rutherford Institute thinks about rights vs public health during a mandatory quarantine/travel restriction in This Is a Test: How Will the Constitution Fare During a Nationwide Lockdown?

“It takes a remarkable force to keep nearly a million people quietly indoors for an entire day, home from work and school, from neighborhood errands and out-of-town travel. It takes a remarkable force to keep businesses closed and cars off the road, to keep playgrounds empty and porches unused across a densely populated place 125 square miles in size. This happened … not because armed officers went door-to-door, or imposed a curfew, or threatened martial law. All around the region, for 13 hours, people locked up their businesses and ‘sheltered in place’ out of a kind of collective will. The force that kept them there wasn’t external – there was virtually no active enforcement across the city of the governor’s plea that people stay indoors. Rather, the pressure was an internal one – expressed as concern, or helpfulness, or in some cases, fear – felt in thousands of individual homes.”—Journalist Emily Badger, “The Psychology of a Citywide Lockdown”

This is a test.

This is not a test of our commitment to basic hygiene or disaster preparedness or our ability to come together as a nation in times of crisis, although we’re not doing so well on any of those fronts.

No, what is about to unfold over the next few weeks is a test to see how well we have assimilated the government’s lessons in compliance, fear and police state tactics; a test to see how quickly we’ll march in lockstep with the government’s dictates, no questions asked; and a test to see how little resistance we offer up to the government’s power grabs when made in the name of national security.

Most critically of all, this is a test to see whether the Constitution—and our commitment to the principles enshrined in the Bill of Rights—can survive a national crisis and true state of emergency.

Here’s what we know: whatever the so-called threat to the nation—whether it’s civil unrest, school shootings, alleged acts of terrorism, or the threat of a global pandemic in the case of COVID-19—the government has a tendency to capitalize on the nation’s heightened emotions, confusion and fear as a means of extending the reach of the police state.

This coronavirus epidemic, which has brought China’s Orwellian surveillance out of the shadows and caused Italy to declare a nationwide lockdown, threatens to bring the American Police State out into the open on a scale we’ve not seen before.

If and when a nationwide lockdown finally hits—if and when we are forced to shelter in place— if and when militarized police are patrolling the streets— if and when security checkpoints have been established— if and when the media’s ability to broadcast the news has been curtailed by government censors—if and when public systems of communication (phone lines, internet, text messaging, etc.) have been restricted—if and when those FEMA camps the government has been surreptitiously building finally get used as quarantine detention centers for American citizens—if and when military “snatch and grab” teams are deployed on local, state, and federal levels as part of the activated Continuity of Government plans to isolate anyone suspected of being infected with COVID-19—and if and when martial law is enacted with little real outcry or resistance from the public—then we will truly understand the extent to which the government has fully succeeded in recalibrating our general distaste for anything that smacks too overtly of tyranny.

This is how it begins.

The coronavirus epidemic may well be a legitimate health concern, but it’s the government’s response to it that worries me more in the long term.

Based on the government’s track record and its long-anticipated plans for instituting martial law (using armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems) in response to a future crisis, there’s good reason to worry.

This is not a government with a rosy view of the future.

To the contrary, the government’s vision of the future is particularly ominous if a Pentagon training video created by the Army for U.S. Special Operations Command is anything to go by.

Obtained by The Intercept through a FOIA request, the training video titled “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity” provides a chilling glimpse of what the government expects the world to look like in 2030, a world bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

Add health contagions to the mix, and we’re arrived there, ten years ahead of schedule.

The training video is only five minutes long, but it says a lot about the government’s mindset and the way its views the citizenry. Even more troubling, however, is what this military video doesn’t say about the Constitution and the rights of the citizenry: nothing at all…(continues)

Click here to read the entire article at the Rutherford Institute.

BFHD: Social Distancing for High Risk Populations

The Benton Franklin Health District has posted this message on Social Distancing for High Risk Populations in light of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington state.

Benton-Franklin Health District (BFHD) is working tirelessly to limit the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in our community. At this time, we have no presumed or confirmed cases. We know that people are worried about this new illness. Due to the novelty of the disease, information on which to make recommendations is changing rapidly.

Prevention strategies can make a large impact in slowing the increase in cases in the short run and ultimately reducing the total number of cases.

Our recommendations are based on our best understanding of this new disease and with guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Washington State Department of Health, and our colleagues at other local health agencies.

We know that COVID-19 spreads among close contacts, and that reducing close contact with others can help reduce the spread of this disease. Social Distancing is a prevention strategy used for many other illnesses.

For social distancing to be most effective, it must be combined with other illness prevention steps.

  • Wash your hands with soap and water frequently, especially after having physical contact with others, being in public places or health care facilities, when leaving work or school and upon returning home.
  • Stay home when you are sick. It is crucial that those who are ill with fever or symptoms like coughing or shortness of breath stay home and away from others.
  • Stay away from other sick people.
  • If someone else at work is sick with a cough or cold, make this known to someone in charge so that person can be asked to leave.
  • Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue, throw it away, and then wash your hands.
  • Clean frequently touched objects and surfaces with a disinfectant.

Gatherings: BFHD is recommending additional social distancing for people at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19. If your event has an intended audience of those that would be considered higher risk, we recommend cancellation of those events.

Those at higher risk include people who:

  • are over 60 years of age
  • have an underlying medical condition, like heart disease, lung disease or diabetes
  • have weakened immune systems
  • are pregnant

If you have questions about whether you or your child is at higher risk from COVID-19, ask your health care provider.

For events where the intended audience is not higher risk, BFHD is advising organizations to follow DOH’s Recommendations for Events and Public Gatherings. Currently, our Health Officer has determined our community is at moderate risk – Threshold 2.

Employers: BFHD is encouraging workplaces and businesses to provide options for their higher risk employees to work from home if possible. If they cannot work from home, employees at higher should minimize their interaction with large groups of people.

Faith Community: BFHD is recommending that our faith community partners practice social distancing during services. Refrain from hugs, handshakes, and any common vessel usage.

What’s Next: BFHD will make decisions about future measures based on active surveillance of all respiratory illness in our community. Surveillance includes monitoring community level data such as emergency department volumes, school absentee rates, respiratory illness rates in long-term care facilities, and data from Washington State’s syndromic surveillance portal.

 

Empty Shelves Do Not Mean “Panic Buying”

I was thinking that I was going to have to write a post like this myself today, but luckily I ran across this letter to the editor at Inforum from NDSU professor of Emergency Management Dr. Carol Cwiak. I can’t count the number of articles decrying the “panic buying” going on ahead of possible COVID-19 quarantines, telling people to calm down – that they only need a sparse few things. Some government officials have been as foolish and uninformed as to say that people only need 2-3 days of supplies for a disaster, in spite of the fact that FEMA and state emergency management officials have been telling people for years now that two weeks or more are necessary, and the fact that coronavirus quarantines are a minimum of two weeks. What we’re seeing in stores is not panic; Black Friday sales in this country have more in common with panic buying than the calm, but widespread, buying we’re seeing.

There have been many media stories and social media posts over the past couple of weeks about consumers’ shopping behaviors related to the Coronavirus (COVID-19). These stories and posts inevitably feature photos of empty store shelves and shoppers with carts filled with supplies such as water, paper products, cleaning supplies and medication. In these stories and posts, the shopper’s behavior has been characterized as “panic” or “hoarding” related to fears about COVID-19. This is a mischaracterization of what is happening, and the use of these terms is not helpful.

These behaviors are more appropriately framed from a preparedness perspective. Typically, guidance from public officials about citizen preparedness is not widely followed, often to citizens’ detriment. Despite valiant preparedness efforts by community leaders over the years, citizens, on the whole, have not historically been great at recognizing and taking ownership over their own risks in the public health and emergency management space.

In the instance of COVID-19, there seems to be an uptick regarding citizen preparedness. There has been consistent messaging surrounding citizen preparedness about the need for households to have food and water supplies for a minimum of 14 days and prescription medicine supplies for at least 30 days; and, apparently people are listening. To public health and emergency management professionals who have been preaching citizen preparedness for years (myself included), this is an encouraging step in the right direction. As for the reasons regarding why citizens are more actively owning their own risk in this situation as opposed to other situations in which they have not adequately prepared, we must look at the confluence of a number of factors.

First, we have become a just-in-time society that affords us the luxury of ordering things online that can be delivered in a period of hours. There is no need to shop for a few weeks at a time when you can think about what you want to make for dinner in the morning and have the groceries delivered in the afternoon. And if you are ordering in from a local restaurant, the process is further simplified by services that will deliver just about everything right to your door in under an hour. Retailers have aligned their behavior with consumers’ behavior and stock shelves and maintain inventory based on the society’s migration to just-in-time service.

Second, we live in an increasingly interdependent and interconnected society served by a complex global supply chain that is vulnerable to disruption. COVID-19 is already disrupting the global supply chain and the U.S. is beginning to feel that disruption. There has already been recognition on the part of some major retailers that they will experience shortages on a variety of items sought by consumers.

Third, as COVID-19 continues its spread at the community level, the workforce will be impacted by employee illness, employee absence due to caretaking of ill family members, employee absence due to lack of child care, and employer efforts to control the spread of the disease (e.g., social distancing, social isolation, healthy workplace policies, etc.). Workforce shortages and challenges will potentially affect both the way businesses deliver goods and services and their ability to deliver at current levels.

Fourth, due to the global nature of this public health event, the option to receive help from other unaffected communities is greatly diminished. While some communities will be hit harder than others with impacts from the virus, all communities will be impacted. This is different than most events citizens are asked to prepare for; in this event, there will not be the same level of capacity to help the un- or under-prepared.

Fifth, there is an increased potential for death with COVID-19 and health care systems will be taxed by both additional patients and workforce reductions. The strain on health care systems will challenge citizens’ ability to access just-in-time health care services.

These factors taken together illustrate some of the potential reasons citizens may view these risks as more salient and important to prepare for than other, more common calls for citizen preparedness. Hence, preparations taken by citizens to have the suggested food, water and medicine supply to prepare their households consistent with preparedness messaging from local, state and national government officials is not hoarding or being done in a state of panic. These are rational efforts by citizens who understand the risk and are taking seriously their role in managing it.

Eric Peters on Non-consent of the Governed

The Nonconsent of the Governed, written by Eric Peters, uses simple terms to describe the state of the country today.

The urban-rural problem waxes; it is like a bad marriage and the only solution is a divorce. But while the rural “man” would happily leave the marriage on reasonable terms and peaceably, the urban “woman” will never allow the “man” to leave.

It begs the question about consent of the governed – the supposed basis for legitimate government (assuming for the sake of discussion such a thing exists).

The answer to this question pretty much establishes the illegitimacy of the government.

In my home state of Virginia, for example, the rural (and geographic) majority of the state does not consent to being disarmed and criminalized by the government in Richmond – which represents Richmond and Northern Virginia.

90-plus percent of the state’s counties oppose the slew of gun confiscation/criminalization measures proposed and likely to be imposed upon them. The people of these rural counties did not consent to any of this. And they have no say in any of this – because the state government is controlled by the urban population centers, whose concentrated numbers give them a virtual lock on the state’s governing apparatus. The 90-plus percent geographic majority outside the urban hives of Richmond and Northern Virginia can vote but it’s becoming as meaningless a gesture as voting in the old Soviet Union, where there was one candidate on the ballot – and no option to say no.

But Saul Alinsky’s “rules for radicals” can work the other way, too. Use their (stated) principles against them by insisting they abide by them.

We do not consent. Yet you impose. This illegitimizes what you impose. We demand to be represented . . . by people who represent us. We will no longer accept being told what we must accept by you and the people who represent only you.

This applies just as logically – and morally – at the federal as well as the state level.

It is a mockery of the concept of representation to assert that the 15,000 residents of a rural county such as mine are “represented” by two senators elected by the millions who reside in Richmond and Northern Virginia and even more risibly by a president elected by millions of people who reside in other states and thousands of miles away.

Like sausage making, it does not bear examination.

And it all rests on the doublethinkian fiction of consent of the governed.

Have any of you reading this ever been specifically asked whether you consent to anything the government proposes to do to you? That question – if it were ever posed – would have to be based on the possibility of not consenting (without repercussion) else it is a parody of the concept of consent.

Of course, that question is never asked – and our answer is irrelevant. We are told we’ve “consented” – by dint of the fact that other persons claim to represent us – and that we have consented to what is done to us by dint of the having the opportunity to vote for or against these so-called representatives.

But – if words have meaning – representation must be specific, as in proxy power formally and freely given to do a particular agreed-upon thing. To be told you will do the opposite of what you wish to do – or wish not to do – by your “representative” is the oxymoronization of the very concept of representation. The defining essence of the thing is the reverse; the representative does as you command; he does not command you.

At least, not if you have consented to be represented by him.

Which, of course, none of us has consented to. It is implied, assumed – and imposed without our consent.

The fiction of representative government – and of consent – would be more believable if it were more local. If people in rural areas were in fact represented by the people who lived in those areas – and no one else. This goes just the same for those who live in urban areas.

They, too, have every right to be represented by those who represent their interests – freely consented to. If the people of Richmond and Northern Virginia consent to being disarmed, it is their right to disarm themselves.

But they have no right to bully people whom they manifestly do not represent solely by dint of their concentrated numbers. And their effrontery in asserting that the bullied have “consented” to this is a species of lunacy once found only in asylums for the criminally insane.

Who now “govern” us without consent and with contempt for the very idea of representation.

Why do we tolerate it?

That’s another question well worth answering.