Forward Observer: COVID-19 Update

Intelligence analysis and training company Forward Observer sent out an email this morning with some COVID-19 news/updates.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Confirmed cases in the U.S. reached 1,257 — nearly a 24 percent increase from yesterday. Yesterday’s increase was 28 percent. The truth is that these numbers are way off. First, Chinese officials estimate that the U.S. had over 9,000 cases earlier this month, based on international flight data from Wuhan. Some American health officials are saying there’s likely to already be 20,000 cases nationwide.

A happy-medium estimate of 10,000 cases at a conservative 10 percent daily growth rate would put us over 3,000,000 cases in the next 60 days, by mid-May. While there may be some mitigating factors to exponential growth, we’re facing an incredibly disruptive future.

THE BAD NEWS: Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician for the U.S. Senate, warned senators on Tuesday that anywhere from 70 to 150 million Americans will contract COVID-19.

To put this into perspective, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 36 million hospital admissions in the U.S. each year. If 20 percent of all COVID-19 patients require hospitalization, then there could be 14-30 million extra hospital admissions. Now, China reports that about 15 percent of patients require hospitalization, but Italy says that 50 percent of COVID-19 patients have required hospitalization! If we see anywhere near that range, there’s simply not going to be enough room or staff to treat that many people.

THE GOOD NEWS: The University of Maryland School of Medicine announced that the spread of COVID-19 should ease this year as temperatures rise. That’s the first medical institution I’ve seen backing that theory. Officials warned, however, that more northerly latitudes could continue to see outbreaks into summer.

AND THEN: That pretty much confirms that COVID-19 will be back in the fall for another round of outbreaks.

U.S.: President Trump announced a series of policy steps he’s taking to stop the spread of COVID-19. By far, the most disruptive policy is that travel from most European countries will effectively end for 30 days starting on Friday. American citizens and permanent residents will be exempt.

Boeing leads the pack of U.S.-based corporations tapping credit lines, saying they’ll take out a $13.8 billion loan as insurance against a cash flow crunch. Hilton Hotels is in for $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, San Francisco is reporting hotel revenue dropping by 46 percent, 35 percent in Seattle, and 20 percent in New York. With spring break upon us and summer break right around the corner, it’s going to be a tough and sparse few months for the tourism industry. Port activity was also down 20 percent on the West Coast for the month of February. (Although, by looking at the charts, they’re used to it: they saw worse in previous years during the height of the trade war.)

ECONOMIC WARNING: BlackRock, the nation’s largest asset manager with $7 trillion AUM, advised clients that they don’t see the COVID-19 pandemic “as an [economic] expansion-ending event” — just as long as an effective federal response is enacted. Still, they see “a sharp and deep economic slowdown in the near term.” (Analyst Comment: This outlook underscores their faith that massive fiscal stimulus and favorable monetary conditions can blunt any effects leading to a 2008-esque meltdown. Yeah, my fingers are crossed, too.)

Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin advised clients that the 11-year bull market run is over, and painted a bleak picture of economic reality: “Supply chains have been disrupted and final demand has declined for many industries. Travel is contracting sharply as both individuals and businesses restrict movement. Airlines, hotels, cruises, and casinos report plunging demand, lower occupancy, and cancellations. Employees are being furloughed.”

JPMorgan Chase is alerting its clients that “a market sell-off of this magnitude implied a 65-75% chance of recession in the next year,” but a “timely, strong counter-policy response” and “a peak of COVID-19” in the coming weeks should prove the market drop an overreaction. (AC: JPMorgan Chase is expecting a peak in the coming weeks, which is at odds with what epidemiologists are saying when they expect a continuation for months.)

SHORTAGES: Coca-Cola warned of potential shortages of Diet Coke, due to supplier disruption. (The next panic buy?) Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble is warning of coming shortages, as well, for the same reason. According to one economist, the “worst impact for businesses [will] come in April and May.” (AC: At some point, accusations of “panic buying” will no longer be sufficient to explain empty shelves, and the reality of shortages will set in. Based on what I’m hearing from China, there will be a period of weeks where shortages will persist. Those shortages could be sporadic or regional, based on where your local retailers source their goods. Regardless: it’s coming.) //END

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BFHD: Social Distancing for High Risk Populations

The Benton Franklin Health District has posted this message on Social Distancing for High Risk Populations in light of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington state.

Benton-Franklin Health District (BFHD) is working tirelessly to limit the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in our community. At this time, we have no presumed or confirmed cases. We know that people are worried about this new illness. Due to the novelty of the disease, information on which to make recommendations is changing rapidly.

Prevention strategies can make a large impact in slowing the increase in cases in the short run and ultimately reducing the total number of cases.

Our recommendations are based on our best understanding of this new disease and with guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Washington State Department of Health, and our colleagues at other local health agencies.

We know that COVID-19 spreads among close contacts, and that reducing close contact with others can help reduce the spread of this disease. Social Distancing is a prevention strategy used for many other illnesses.

For social distancing to be most effective, it must be combined with other illness prevention steps.

Wash your hands with soap and water frequently, especially after having physical contact with others, being in public places or health care facilities, when leaving work or school and upon returning home.

Stay home when you are sick. It is crucial that those who are ill with fever or symptoms like coughing or shortness of breath stay home and away from others.

Stay away from other sick people.

If someone else at work is sick with a cough or cold, make this known to someone in charge so that person can be asked to leave.

Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue, throw it away, and then wash your hands.

Clean frequently touched objects and surfaces with a disinfectant.

Gatherings: BFHD is recommending additional social distancing for people at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19. If your event has an intended audience of those that would be considered higher risk, we recommend cancellation of those events.

Those at higher risk include people who:

are over 60 years of age

have an underlying medical condition, like heart disease, lung disease or diabetes

have weakened immune systems

are pregnant

If you have questions about whether you or your child is at higher risk from COVID-19, ask your health care provider.

For events where the intended audience is not higher risk, BFHD is advising organizations to follow DOH’s Recommendations for Events and Public Gatherings. Currently, our Health Officer has determined our community is at moderate risk – Threshold 2.

Employers: BFHD is encouraging workplaces and businesses to provide options for their higher risk employees to work from home if possible. If they cannot work from home, employees at higher should minimize their interaction with large groups of people.

Faith Community: BFHD is recommending that our faith community partners practice social distancing during services. Refrain from hugs, handshakes, and any common vessel usage.

What’s Next: BFHD will make decisions about future measures based on active surveillance of all respiratory illness in our community. Surveillance includes monitoring community level data such as emergency department volumes, school absentee rates, respiratory illness rates in long-term care facilities, and data from Washington State’s syndromic surveillance portal.

Empty Shelves Do Not Mean “Panic Buying”

I was thinking that I was going to have to write a post like this myself today, but luckily I ran across this letter to the editor at Inforum from NDSU professor of Emergency Management Dr. Carol Cwiak. I can’t count the number of articles decrying the “panic buying” going on ahead of possible COVID-19 quarantines, telling people to calm down – that they only need a sparse few things. Some government officials have been as foolish and uninformed as to say that people only need 2-3 days of supplies for a disaster, in spite of the fact that FEMA and state emergency management officials have been telling people for years now that two weeks or more are necessary, and the fact that coronavirus quarantines are a minimum of two weeks. What we’re seeing in stores is not panic; Black Friday sales in this country have more in common with panic buying than the calm, but widespread, buying we’re seeing.

There have been many media stories and social media posts over the past couple of weeks about consumers’ shopping behaviors related to the Coronavirus (COVID-19). These stories and posts inevitably feature photos of empty store shelves and shoppers with carts filled with supplies such as water, paper products, cleaning supplies and medication. In these stories and posts, the shopper’s behavior has been characterized as “panic” or “hoarding” related to fears about COVID-19. This is a mischaracterization of what is happening, and the use of these terms is not helpful.

These behaviors are more appropriately framed from a preparedness perspective. Typically, guidance from public officials about citizen preparedness is not widely followed, often to citizens’ detriment. Despite valiant preparedness efforts by community leaders over the years, citizens, on the whole, have not historically been great at recognizing and taking ownership over their own risks in the public health and emergency management space.

In the instance of COVID-19, there seems to be an uptick regarding citizen preparedness. There has been consistent messaging surrounding citizen preparedness about the need for households to have food and water supplies for a minimum of 14 days and prescription medicine supplies for at least 30 days; and, apparently people are listening. To public health and emergency management professionals who have been preaching citizen preparedness for years (myself included), this is an encouraging step in the right direction. As for the reasons regarding why citizens are more actively owning their own risk in this situation as opposed to other situations in which they have not adequately prepared, we must look at the confluence of a number of factors.

First, we have become a just-in-time society that affords us the luxury of ordering things online that can be delivered in a period of hours. There is no need to shop for a few weeks at a time when you can think about what you want to make for dinner in the morning and have the groceries delivered in the afternoon. And if you are ordering in from a local restaurant, the process is further simplified by services that will deliver just about everything right to your door in under an hour. Retailers have aligned their behavior with consumers’ behavior and stock shelves and maintain inventory based on the society’s migration to just-in-time service.

Second, we live in an increasingly interdependent and interconnected society served by a complex global supply chain that is vulnerable to disruption. COVID-19 is already disrupting the global supply chain and the U.S. is beginning to feel that disruption. There has already been recognition on the part of some major retailers that they will experience shortages on a variety of items sought by consumers.

Third, as COVID-19 continues its spread at the community level, the workforce will be impacted by employee illness, employee absence due to caretaking of ill family members, employee absence due to lack of child care, and employer efforts to control the spread of the disease (e.g., social distancing, social isolation, healthy workplace policies, etc.). Workforce shortages and challenges will potentially affect both the way businesses deliver goods and services and their ability to deliver at current levels.

Fourth, due to the global nature of this public health event, the option to receive help from other unaffected communities is greatly diminished. While some communities will be hit harder than others with impacts from the virus, all communities will be impacted. This is different than most events citizens are asked to prepare for; in this event, there will not be the same level of capacity to help the un- or under-prepared.

Fifth, there is an increased potential for death with COVID-19 and health care systems will be taxed by both additional patients and workforce reductions. The strain on health care systems will challenge citizens’ ability to access just-in-time health care services.

These factors taken together illustrate some of the potential reasons citizens may view these risks as more salient and important to prepare for than other, more common calls for citizen preparedness. Hence, preparations taken by citizens to have the suggested food, water and medicine supply to prepare their households consistent with preparedness messaging from local, state and national government officials is not hoarding or being done in a state of panic. These are rational efforts by citizens who understand the risk and are taking seriously their role in managing it.

KNDU: Prosser Suspends City Programs While Sanitizing Community Center

From KNDU, City of Prosser suspends City programs while it works to sanitize community center because of potential coronavirus exposure.

The City of Prosser has decided to suspend City programs because of a possible exposure to the coronavirus.

On Monday, March 9, the City received information there was a sight chance that a person at the Community Center, located at 1231 Dudley Ave., could have been exposed to COVID-19. According to a news release, the potential exposure comes from a possible transference from a site outside Benton County via a patron of the facility.

According to City Officials, the person who may have been exposed has no symptoms at this time.

Working with the Benton-Franklin Health Department the City of Prosser decided to suspend City programs while it works to sanitize the facility. This is a precautionary measure only, taken to ensure the safety of all citizens. The City has reached out to its facility partners and advised them of the situation and allowed them to determine whether to continue or suspend their programs based on the level of risk.

According to the city, The Senior Citizens Club has posted updates on their program activities on their Facebook page. Meals on Wheels is still operating and will be providing meals. Please check the Prosser Meals on Wheels Facebook page for more information and updates.

The City of Prosser expects to resume programs at the Community Center next week. “We want to stress that this is simply a precaution and thank you for your patience” Steve Zetz, Community Development Director.

Organic Prepper: China’s Control of Pharmaceuticals

In this article from The Organic Prepper, Daisy Luther discusses China’s corner on the pharmaceutical market – 80% of pharmaceutical ingredients are made in China – and recent threats (or merely boasts?) that China would or could cut off drug exports to the US.

As China allegedly conquers the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak that began in Wuhan, it appears that they’re right back to considering the United States an enemy. On Xiahuanet, the Communist Party news outlet, they threatened to withhold all medical exports to the US, at the same asking for an “apology” from the US and “gratitude” from the rest of the world.

This comes at the most crucial point of an outbreak that originated in their own country.

Why is China angry with the US?

Xinhuanet is the biggest news agency in China, and very “influential.” The outlet is the official state-run press agency, so anything found on the website is straight from the Chinese government. An article titled, “The World Should Thank China,” which was published on March 4, covered the outbreak of Covid-19 in the United States.

The article suggests that the US’s data is suspicious because all cases of coronavirus must be confirmed by the CDC. (I can’t disagree with them that our numbers are questionable.) It shows a photograph of people praying in the White House to underline how “nervous” President Trump is about the virus. (This photo was actually of a meeting that the Vice President had about the rapidly spreading virus, as opposed to the President.)

Xinhuanet goes on to tout the control they have taken over the outbreak, saying that Trump admires their handling of the crisis and that his “remarks came from the bottom of his heart.”

At the same time, Xinhuanet criticized the US’s perceived mistreatment of China, citing the travel ban and the evacuation of American citizens from Wuhan, the heart of the outbreak. This caused, according to Xinhuanet, other countries to also “isolate” China from the rest of the world, causing them economic harm.

A translated version of the article says:

These practices in the United States are very unkind. They can be described as falling into the ground and killing people while they are ill. (source)

And now, if it is to be believed that China has contained the outbreak and they’re back to business as usual, they may want to exact some vengeance for this “unkindness.” (And of course, this remains the question – do they even currently possess the capability to manufacture these medical products or is this all a way to save face because their workforce is decimated and the virus is actually not contained at all?)

How did China threaten the US?

In the article, China suggests that they could easily get even with the United States for their perceived mistreatment of China during the outbreak by cutting off medical supplies while we are in the midst of our own outbreak.

If China retaliates against the United States at this time, in addition to announcing a travel ban on the United States, it will also announce strategic control over medical products and ban exports to the United States. Then the United States will be caught in the ocean of new crown viruses.

According to the US CDC officials, most masks in the United States are made in China and imported from China. If China bans the export of masks to the United States, the United States will fall into the mask shortage, and the most basic measures to prevent the new crown virus are Can’t do it.

Also according to the US CDC officials, most of the drugs in the United States are imported, and some drugs are imported from Europe. However, Europe also places the production base of these drugs in China, so more than 90% of the US imported drugs are Related to China. The implication is that at this time, as long as China announces that its drugs are as domestic as possible and banned exports, the United States will fall into the hell of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. (source)

In the next paragraph, Xinhuanet basically says, “Nah, don’t worry. We are filled with love.”

However, there is a great love in the world. The Chinese people and the Chinese government have never done so. They have not insulted the United States, nor have they banned the export of masks and medicines to the United States. (source)

Then the article suggests that the United States, if not the entire world, owes China an apology due to our media coverage of the outbreak in Wuhan and comments made about the outbreak by government officials like Secretary of Commerce Rose, US Secretary of State Pompeo, and US White House Economic Adviser Navarro. They say these officials “gloated” about the coronavirus outbreak and saw it as an opportunity to pull US manufacturing out of China…

Click here to read the entire article at The Organic Prepper.

What’s Happening in Lombardy from an ICU Doctor

Dr. Daniele Macchini of Bergamo, Italy posted an update on Facebook on how conditions are in the hospitals there. It was translated into English and posted on twitter. (h/t Aesop) There are also reports that retired doctors have been asked to come back to work, and nursing students have been graduated early in order to deal with the health system crisis.

“After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible. I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder. I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly “emptied”, elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible. All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity. I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I’ve seen what’s happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace. The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia. Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is”temporarily” put in crisis, the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us. Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing. Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized. Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it’s too late… Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before. The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn’t know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask “what can I do for you now?” Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can’t save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny. There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols. Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can’t go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate. We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy.” – Dr. Daniele Macchini.

“I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?”

Dr. Luks on Covid-19 Personal Risk vs Systemic Risk

The following is a post from orthopedic surgeon Dr. Howard Luks, MD, on Facebook about the difference between the personal risks of the novel coronavirus and the looming systemic risk. Most people have a pretty low personal risk to worry about the virus, but the systemic risk of an overwhelmed health care system is danger in itself.

COVID-19 Update: 3/8/20; 6AM

Confusion and messaging…. Personal v Systemic Risk:

Many people have had trouble grasping the issues we have covered as they try to make sense of it in the context of what they see on TV or read in print media.

Much of what the experts have been discussing is in fact accurate. Your “personal” risk remains very low. The risk to your children’s health is very low. So, their messaging is accurate… but incomplete. The message should be clear… your personal risk is low… period. No one is debating that. The issue that you’re not reading about is “systemic risk”.
The AHA or American Hospital Association is starting to discuss the systems side … see the second picture below for their estimates.

Personal risk aside, the issue that we need to confront, and soon, is the concept of systemic risk. I am referring to the healthcare system. Let’s dive into this again.
An example … Here are some numbers out of Italy:

10 % Lombardy doctors are infected.
At least 1060 patients are self-isolating at home
At least 2394 are hospitalized
At least 462 are in intensive care
197 have died.

The Italian Society of Intensive Therapy declared today: “It might be necessary to limit the age of people who can enter intensive therapy to preserve resources for those having more chances of surviving”. In other words, people who are more at risk will be left to die.

THIS IS WHAT SYSTEMIC RISK LOOKS LIKE.

~ Doctors/nurses getting sick: fewer to care for high numbers of patients.
~ 462 in an ICU…. and we are still very early in the spread of the infection stage. Italy will shut down large cities soon… but it will be too late. How many ICU beds do you think we have available in your community?
~ 2400 hospitalized. In the US, on average, hospitals run 65% full. In many regions of the country, mine included, that number is far higher.
~ Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 8th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We just do not have the ability to test people. Period.
~ Given an R0 of 2( meaning that one person infects two people), and a doubling time of 6 days (one infection becomes two, two becomes 4, etc)
~ That means we’re looking at about 1 Million US cases by the end of April, 2 Million by ~May 5, 4 Million by ~May 11, and so on.
~ yes… math is wonky. and exponential math even more so.

Here are the current models from the AHA: Assumptions are actually conservative. Fatality rate assumption only 0.5%, etc. If that rate rises due to strained resources ….

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admits
480,000 deaths

Compare that to the numbers for the flu ..

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths

This is NOT the flu. Again… yes, your personal risk is low. However, the systemic risk to our healthcare system is huge. So we can change this trajectory… keep reading.

Assume there are~ 1 Million hospital beds in the US, therefore ~ 300,000 hospital beds (not ICU beds) are available in the US (assuming 65% of capacity)
~ It does not take long before our beds are full, and our resources are under strain.

To recap… your personal risk IS currently very low. If you are a young healthy adult your risk of dying from COVID-19 is lower than your risk of driving around today. That risk increases in people with diabetes and hypertension. Men are at slightly higher risk than women, and people over 80 have the greatest risk of dying (~15%).

So the messaging that you are viewing or reading is in fact accurate. Your personal risk is low. No need to panic.

Hospitals are not full right now… hospital resources are available to you. Only a few physicians, nurse, and health care workers are sick. So if you become infected now you will likely do fine.

What happens in a month when 2 Million people may be infected? Our healthcare system may not be able to offer the same level of care to those who need it. Therein lies the risk. This is systemic risk. This is why we need to stretch and bang down the “epidemic curve” or the rate of spread. The healthcare system CAN deal with many sick people arriving over a longer period of time. So we need to stretch the time course out. See the first picture below.

Why we should close schools and dramatically limit social contact via gatherings, events and conferences. It boils down to math… and the need to flatten the epidemic curve.

This is a great article that goes into the numbers and models with respect to lives saved by closing schools, working from home, cancelling gatherings, etc. It is well worth the 5 minutes it takes to read. The third picture below shows the detailed math of how closing schools etc will save lives.

https://www.linkedin.com/…/whats-your-risk-dying-covid-19…/…

So if your school district closes… don’t get on their case. It’s in the best interest of community as a whole. The risk to your child’s health in all of this is negligible. This is not a personal risk issue! I’m watching my own town’s facebook page explode with fear, personal attacks and political rants. It’s a shame. This is not a time for political wrangling. This is the time to act to keep our healthcare system running and our healthcare workforce well to be able to care for you when you or a family member becomes ill.

Yes, hand washing is critical … but it’s time to consider what else we can do to slow the spread. For your communities sake.
– we shouldn’t be going to indoor tournaments
– we shouldn’t be going to concerts
-conferences should be cancelled
– etc
Again… not because your individual risk is high… but because we need to slow the spread to minimize the risk of a systems failure.

For those interested in a deeper dive into the mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID and how it will affect our resources you can read this thread … https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

Beauty Beyond Bones: What If We Were as Fervent About the Rest of Life as COVID19?

Caralyn at Beauty Beyond Bones shares a few thoughts on the coronavirus frenzy and how wonderful it would it would be if people attacked the rest of their lives with the same fervor – Coronavirus or Apocalypse?

Somebody call Will Smith because thanks to the Coronavirus, it’s like a scene from an apocalyptic blockbuster out here in these streets.

Honestly – New York City is turning into a chaotic nightmare.

People are walking around in masks, I can’t tell you the number of mass emails I’ve gotten instructing me to wash my hands (you’re breaking some new ground there, Copernicus), and everyone on the subway is actively sizing people up, trying to determine if they’re riding with Patient Zero.

And apparently, for good reason. You know it’s bad when my father — King of not-freaking out/calm-cool-&-collected/never-over-reacter — sends me a Twitter thread about the potential catastrophic impact COVID-19 could have if there’s an actual outbreak.

Sometimes, I think there’s more fear-mongering than facts circulating in the media around things like this, but respecting my dad’s concern…I caved and heeded his advice.

I went to 4 different Walgreens yesterday to buy my doomsday kit: cleaning supplies, toilet paper, bottled water, hand sanitizer, etc. – and I kid you not — all four stores were completely sold out of – not only cleaning products – but also hand sanitizer and antibacterial soap!! We’re talking empty shelves!

Image: ABC

And – thanks to the law of supply and demand – I ended up paying a whopping $24 on Amazon for ONE canister of Lysol disinfectant wipes.

If I wasn’t coughing before, I certainly did after that price tag.

The country is freaking out.

And the fervor with which people are preparing for a potential doomsday is unprecedented. It’s like Y2K all over again. People are stock piling toilet paper and paper face masks. I met a guy at a party last night who was side-hustling those blue paper masks for $25 bucks a pop!!

It’s a frenzy. And it’s damn impressive, to be honest.

And, sitting back, watching this whole thing unfold, I couldn’t help but think to myself — what would happen if we were attack other areas of our lives with this same intensity?

People are snatching up anything “antibacterial” like their life depended on it. Bleach? Lay it on me. Antimicrobial? Here, take my first born.

There is a desperation. A determination. A devotion. Granted, it’s driven by self-interest.

But what would happen, if we were to, say, attack recovery with that same life-or-death intensity?

How would it be if we were to pursue our relationship with God with that same urgency? To save our souls, with the same tanacity as fighting to save our lives?

Or what if we were to take that frenzied energy and put it towards helping other people, loving our friends, pursuing goals and dreams, working to save the environment – or the unborn?

There’s so much complacency these days – so much luke-warmness that, quite frankly, it’s refreshing to see that, as a society, we have it in us to actually care about something. That we can set aside our differences and rally together to defeat a collective threat.

Pity, that it took the coronavirus to bring that out of us.

I pray that this corona virus be contained. It breaks my heart to see what’s happening overseas, and to hear the death toll continues to rise.

I hope that with the arrival of spring, we can kick this virus, and move forward to days where the threat of a hand sanitizer barter system isn’t on the brink of reality.

Because in addition to ruthlessness in the CVS aisles, COVID-19 has also brought out the absolute worst in people: Despicable acts racism and overt prejudice against our brothers and sisters from China are sadly a reality, and people are letting fear cloud their judgement and influence their words and actions.

Image: Forbes

It’s gross and completely unacceptable.

So, I think we all need to take a collective deep breath. Act with common sense — yes, wash our hands — Act with prudence when it comes to staying healthy.

But try to channel this panicked energy into positive intensity towards things that also matter.

Starting with kindness. How about that.

FEE: Coronavirus May Lead to “Mass Homeschooling”

From the Foundation for Economic Education comes this article on how the coronavirus pandemic could lead to more homeschooling because of school closures.

s fears of coronavirus mount around the globe, cities and countries are taking action to prevent the new respiratory virus strain from spreading. While the virus has not yet hit hard in the United States, government officials and health agencies have enacted response plans, corporations are halting travel abroad, and education leaders are grappling with what a widespread domestic outbreak of the virus could mean for schoolchildren.

In countries where the virus is active, schools have been shut down and children are at home, learning alongside their parents or through online education portals. The New York Times reports that US schools have been prompted this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to prepare for a coronavirus epidemic that could shutter schools and require alternate forms of teaching and learning outside the conventional classroom. According to Kevin Carey of the New America think tank, who spoke to the Times, coronavirus in the US could lead to “a vast unplanned experiment in mass home-schooling.”

It’s unfortunate that it takes a viral epidemic to spotlight the many alternatives to conventional K-12 schooling.

Indeed, in Hong Kong this is already occurring. The coronavirus outbreak led to orders for schools to be shut down in the city for two months, affecting 800,000 students. An article this week in The Wall Street Journal declares that “coronavirus prompts a whole city to try home schooling,” noting that in Hong Kong many children are completing lessons virtually through online learning platforms or receiving live instruction from teachers through Google Hangouts or similar digital tools.

It’s unfortunate that it takes a viral epidemic to spotlight the many alternatives to conventional K-12 schooling. Not only is homeschooling widely popular in the US, educating approximately two million children nationwide, but other schooling alternatives, such as virtual learning, microschooling, and hybrid homeschooling continue to sprout.

Interest in online learning options is sure to increase as the coronavirus spreads, but other in-person schooling alternatives are also likely to gain notoriety.

Virtual learning programs such as the Florida Virtual School, founded in 1997 as the nation’s first fully online public high school, and K12, Inc., one of the largest providers of virtual schooling, enable young people to take a complete course load and earn a high school diploma without sitting in a traditional classroom environment. Supplementary online programs, such as Khan Academy and Outschool, expand learning options and allow young people to dig deeper into topics that interest them or those in which they may need some additional help.

Interest in online learning options is sure to increase as the coronavirus spreads, but other in-person schooling alternatives are also likely to gain notoriety. Microschools, for example, are small, home-based, multi-age learning environments that act like a one-room schoolhouse, typically with no more than 8 to 12 students at a time. Prenda is a fast-growing network of these branded, in-home microschools, with more than 80 schools in Arizona alone serving some 550 students, and plans to expand out-of-state.

Like microschools, hybrid homeschooling programs and small, community-based classes for homeschoolers are also gaining popularity and may be swept into the limelight if conventional schools are forced to temporarily close. Operating with small, age-mixed groups of children, these hybrid models and classes offer an alternative to institutional schooling, avoiding large classrooms and crowded buildings. I have recently launched a marketplace platform, Unschool.school, that connects educators, parents, and learners to these homeschooling models and out-of-school learning experiences, fostering small group, in-person interactions in local community spaces, such as art studios, makerspaces, and spare dining rooms.

These emerging learning options outside of traditional schooling show not only that “mass homeschooling” is possible but also that it may be highly desirable. Personalized learning, small group interactions that build community and connection, and education without the coercion inherent in standard schooling are beneficial whether or not a pending epidemic is what exposes families to these education possibilities. Mass homeschooling may be just the cure we need.

Forward Observer: A Brief Q&A on COVID-19 Preparations

Chief intelligence analyst Sam Culper at Forward Observer posts a brief Q&A on coronavirus issues/preparation.

Hey Gang – I’m getting enough questions that it’s more economical for me to write a blog post rather than trying to answer them individually.

Question: Is COVID-19 that big of a threat?

Answer: For the average American, the greater risk is actually the financial and economic impact of COVID-19.

I’m not concerned about catching COVID-19, as 80 percent of cases are mild. The older you are and the worse shape you’re in, the more you should be concerned.

If you’re reasonably healthy, then you have less to worry about.

I’m way more concerned about impacts to the economy.

Q: On “panic buying” — is it prudent to go buy a month’s worth of supplies if I don’t already have them?

A: Yes, I believe that’s prudent. Here’s why:

Health experts, risk management firms, and financial asset managers are warning that COVID-19 outbreaks will likely last for months.

– Morgan Stanley advised clients that economic disruption could last into Q3, which is July to September.

– Supplier delivery times have started to tick up, which is bad news for just-in-time inventory. China is struggling to resume production, which will be self-evident in the coming weeks.

– Goldman Sachs is warning of “severe” global supply shortages if China can’t get back to normal by the end of the month. Meanwhile, production facilities in China’s coastal regions are operating at 70-80 percent capacity, but many factories are still experiencing labor shortages.

– Prominent hedge fund and asset managers have warned about coming supply and demand shocks.

– The Federal Reserve made an emergency cut to interest rates this week, and the futures markets are pricing in another rate cut this month. What exactly is the Fed trying to get ahead of?

There’s no need to panic and the world isn’t ending. In light of the data, however, it’s prudent to get what you need soon or face the risk of shortages later.

As we’ve seen in Washington, Arizona, California, and other states that experience community outbreaks, there will be more panic buying. There will be more lines at Costco, more purchase limits, and more empty shelves.

As one friend put it, buying things today is preparing for the panic to come, not “panic buying.” Preparing now for anywhere between two to four weeks is prudent.

Q: Will the U.S. be as hard hit as China has been?

A: Right now, that looks unlikely in the near term. The fact is that no one knows just how bad this will get. I’m confident in saying that conditions will get much worse before they get better.

Chinese officials initially ignored the outbreaks, which exacerbated the problem.

You may have seen news that major corporations like Google, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, Boeing, and others are cancelling events. Expect a lot more of that.

Domestic air travel ticketing is down 20 percent through May. Expect more disruption to the travel and tourism industry. (In fact, airline executives met with Vice President Pence this week to discuss air travel during the COVID-19 epidemic.)

We have a far better healthcare system than China does, but that doesn’t mean we’re immune to overcrowded and understaffed medical facilities. According to epidemiologists, one bad community outbreak could quickly overwhelm local or regional medical infrastructure.

Q: But, but, but more people die from common influenza.

A: That’s not a question, but you’re right.

We expect influenza every year. Influenza has a season. We currently don’t know how long COVID-19 outbreaks will last, nor do we fully understand the extent of the economic or psychological impacts.

I’m reading through these earnings guidance calls from Fortune 500 companies and they don’t know how to estimate the financial impact of COVID-19 for Q2 of this year. There’s simply too much uncertainty.

Professional number crunchers who can accurately forecast how much their company will earn in the next quarter (April-June) are shrugging when asked about the impact. If they don’t know, then certainly no one else does.

As far as I can tell, health officials have said this will last for months, and some have said it will last into next year. That’s a long time for the type of disruption we’re already starting to see.

I’ve seen some people say that warmer weather will kill COVID-19. I look at Australia, which is coming out of summer and heading into fall, and they’re accumulating more COVID-19 cases. It’s warmer there than it is here, and I’m in Texas.

The bottom line in all of this is that authorities are trying to keep the lid on panic.

The absolute best ways to avoid panic is to have realistic expectations of the future so you’re not surprised, and to be prepared.

I can’t help you with your day to day preparations, but I CAN HELP YOU gain a better perspective on the future.

I can help you to understand what’s more likely and less likely to happen. I can provide you with intelligence that reduces your uncertainty about the future.

Try me out: https://members.forwardobserver.com…

The Medic Shack: COVID-19

Chuck at The Medic Shack shares his thoughts and preparations for the COVID-19 virus sweeping the world.

The Coronavirus, Covid-19 is rampaging around the country. People are dying in America.

Okay. Got your attention now? The above statement is true. It is NOT as bad as it sounds. As of 3-4-2020 11 people have died from Covid-19. But its the delivery of the sentence that makes it menacing.

The Covid 19 virus is spreading. We are having community acquired illnesses happening We have confirmed deaths in the US from it. We have people panicking over it. People are scared and are grasping at straws of hope from some real unsavory news sources. I do not have the answers people want. Hell I’m no doctor nor epidemiologist. What I am, is a person who has seen disease break out in the 3^rd world and here in the US. That has treated people as a US Army Medic, Paramedic and instructor.

So lets get to what we do know.

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that can cause a range of symptoms including a runny nose, cough, sore throat and fever. Some are mild, such as the common cold, while others are more likely to lead to pneumonia. They’re usually spread through direct contact with an infected person. Other well-known coronaviruses include SARS and MERS

COVID-19 is similar to other respiratory illnesses and symptoms include a fever, dry cough, sore throat and headache. There may also be aches and pains, fatigue and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhea.

While most cases are mild, some individuals may experience more severe symptoms such as shortness of breath and difficulty breathing, and may experience pneumonia in both lungs. Those with health issues or underlying conditions may also have a harder time recovering. The incubation period is still up in the air. From as little as 2 days to as much as 21. The “happy” medium is about 14 days.

It may 14 days or longer after exposure for symptoms to appear. It also appears to be contagious during the incubation period.

What’s the difference between a cold, a flu and COVID-19?

All three are respiratory illnesses but each is caused by a different virus. The cold is caused by the rhinovirus, the flu is caused by the influenza virus, and COVID-19 is caused by the novel 2019 coronavirus. All three can lead to pneumonia if complicated by other health issues or underlying conditions

The cold, flu and COVID-19 are all spread the same way, from close person-to-person interaction, though the cold and COVID-19 can also spread through airborne particles.

COVID-19 like a bad cold and the flu does it’s worse damage on those that have co-morbidity COPD, Uncontrolled Diabetes. Hypertension. Weakened immune system, overweight with general poor health. This is targeted to some dear friends I know and love. Overworked. Over stressed. Not caring for themselves. Not enough sleep. When you get weakened by health or life, your immune system is taxed.

If you add in ANY co morbidity to that you are at a high risk of getting ANY VIRUS.

Going back to one of my favorite movies, Pop Quiz hot shot You walk into a crowded grocery store. A shopper has coronavirus. What puts you most at risk of getting infected by that person? WHAT DO YOU DO???

Experts agree they have a great deal to learn, but four factors likely play some role: how close you get; how long you are near the person; whether that person projects viral droplets on you; and how much you touch your face. Also age and health are huge factors.

A virus by itself is immobile. It can not move on its own and it is to small to be moved by wind. It needs to catch a lift. A droplet of moisture, Dust. Dander from pets or people. That is why the masks come into play. No mask outside of a Level 3 or 4 suit from Fort Meade can stop a virus. They are on the average .1 to .17 microns. The best N95 can stop only to .3 microns Your surgical mask can stop particles of about 5 microns in size. N95s are in very short supply.

So short that hospitals are having a bit of a tough time to get them. And what new masks come off the line are not heading to Amazon or Home Depot. They are heading to the CDC and your health care facilities. Unless you read our article on the N95 mask, be aware that most people do not know how to properly seal one. N95 HEPA Mask

Am I worried?

To say I am not concerned about this bug would be a lie. But also I am not bouncing like a fork dropped in a garbage disposal. It is something to keep a very close eye on. Today 4 March 2020, CNBC released this headline

Chinese scientists identify two strains of the coronavirus, indicating it’s already mutated at least once.

The headline is eye catching. But when you read into it, it is not as inflammatory as it seems. But it does raise some questions in my tin foil hat covered mind.

What can we do to protect ourselves?

Wash your hands often with soap and water.

Cover your mouth and nose with your elbow or a tissue when you cough or sneeze.

Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth if your hands aren’t clean.

Avoid close contact with anyone who is sick.

Clean surfaces you often touch.

Stay home from work, school and public areas if you’re sick.

A lot of people have been comparing this to the flu. With out getting all into Med Speak, they are similar that they are viruses. But it ends there. Look at it this way/ Both a Malamute and a Husky are dogs. They come from the same climate. The look a bit alike. After that they are totally different. They replicate in a similar manner, but the attack the body in the same manner. The Covid-19 can live for a few hours on most surfaces., It is THOUGHT not CONFIRMED that it can last up to a few days under ideal conditions.

Disinfection.

This is where the chink in the armor of COVID-19 shows. Almost any disinfectant, that is applied according to its directions, will kill it. The old Standby of bleach will do it. For surfaces that can’t take bleaching Lysol. We have also found the old fashioned concentrate Lysol in the brown bottle. That stuff will kill ANYTHING!

For those that can’t take the harsh chemicals, embrace your hippy self!

For surface disinfection Essential oil such as Lemongrass, Cinnamon, Clove, Oregano, and Thyme are good choices for their reported antiviral properties . My wife likes to make her own consisting of 10 drops lemongrass oil, 10 drops of tea tree 10 drops peppermint. 4 ounces of 100 proof vodka and 2 ounces of Colloidal Silver. She places this in a sprayer and uses it to spray it on surfaces. No wiping. Let it dry on its own.

Colloidal Silver.

Good stuff. It is NOT the miracle drug that cures warts constipation Ebola freckles bad breath and bad complexions. Used and most importantly MADE correctly it is a good thing to have on hand. We use. And no we’re not blue!

Always use .999 pure silver, DO NOT USE STERLING SILVER! There is also .9999 pure but it is expensive and unnecessary. We use 1/8″ ribbon also called “bezel”.

Make Your Own Colloidal Silver

Fill a quart jar about 1/2″ from the top with distilled water and heat to boiling. The reason for this is because distilled water, not having any minerals in it, is a poor conductor of electricity. After being heated to near boiling, it will allow for the electrolysis to take place. DO NOT USE ANY OTHER TYPE OF WATER! Now make a hook on one end of each strip of silver (like a candy cane) and hang them on the edge of the jar and into the water, about an inch apart. Clip the two wires from the generator to the silver strips making sure that the clips do not touch the water or each other and that the strips do not touch each other!

You can tell when it has begun the process, you can see a what looks like smoke coming off of one the strips. If it doesn’t appear to be doing anything in a minute or so, scoot the wires a little closer together. If that still doesn’t work, sprinkle a few grains of table salt right in between the strips and it will take right off. Will it kill Covid-19? I can not answer that here. FDA rules. But we use it at home. A Damn good write up is on The Medic Shack Colloidal Silver

Hand washing.

Sounds goofy in a way. But a lot of people do not know how to wash their hands. Correctly. Now we’re not talking the surgical scrub I do every day. Just basic hand washing.

We Your Hands.

Use soap. Antibacterial is not necessary.

Scrub your hands while counting to 20. Make sure to get in between your fingers and your nails

Rinse completely.

Dry with a paper towel. SHTF paper towels will be like gold. Use a clean cloth towel and hang in the sun to dry. Viruses HATE ultraviolet light. Use a separate towel for each person. Seriously.

Use that paper towel or towel to turn off the faucet.

There are different schools of thought on using a towel to turn off the water. In the medical field we used to be taught that from day one. Today some say it doesn’t matter. YMMV.

Water temperature. It doesn’t matter. Up until 2 weeks ago, I told one of my best friends to use warm water. ANNNND some studies have been published and they all agree it doesn’t matter. The soap and water combination works either way.

Alcohol and hand washing

Alcohol based scrubs. I mentioned earlier that we use a product called Avagard for surgical scrubs. I also said that we do a real scrub first thing in the morning and after eating or going to the bathroom. What I didn’t mention is why we do those old style washing up. The reason is right above y’all, In hand washing. The scrubs kill bacteria. To a point. They kill viruses. To a point. Hand washing doesn’t kill them. It REMOVES them. And it will remove Covid-19

That is why I cringe when I see a porta potty with that little bottle of hand sanitizer, Yes its better than nothing. It is however a false sense of security. That fecal bacterial that ends up on EVERYONE’S HANDS is still there. They are weakened, but they are not killed. Something to think about.

A friend of mine who is marrying a Marine friend of mine. I don’t know who to be more concerned about Sigurd getting civilized, or Jessica getting Uncivilized! She wrote this piece on a Facebook group:

Jessica Kozack The Soul Purpose

There is a lot of hype going on about the Novel CoronaVirus known as Covid-19. I wanted to discuss how to protect from viruses like Covid-19 and also the flu which is also going around. I find I always feel better when I am prepared. Aromatherapy can be quite effective in treating and preventing illness along with being supportive and healing while sick. I did have the flu a month ago. It was brought home by my daughter who caught it at a school fair and she proceeded to sneeze directly into my face uncontrollably.

I knew in that moment regardless of what I used or did I would catch it so I used aromatherapy to support us and prevent us from getting any secondary infection.

1) Wash hands thoroughly and often with good old soap and water

2) Make your own hand sanitizer with Vodka, Colloidal Silver, Aloe Vera, and essential oils that are antiviral

3) Make a cleaning and disinfecting spray using vinegar and water with essential oils and cleanse surfaces, etc multiple times a day in your home, work space etc

4)Diffusers are our best weapon for killing airborne viruses and treating respiratory illnesses. I have many diffusers and I recommend using them at this time in your home to kill virus bugs and support the immune system.

Pets and Oils

**Please be mindful of your pets and children when using essential oils. They should always be diluted and diffusers should not be located directly near your pets especially with the super bug killing essential oils as they are harsher. If someone is ill and you are using a diffuser with the super bug killer it is best to keep your pets out of this room. Pets will also walk away from a diffuser if it is to strong for them. Just be mindful.**

A diffuser works best if it turns on every 15mins with a timer and diffuses for a minute. You would need to get a timer for most diffusers.

Here is my list of essential oils.

Super Bug Killer oils a little goes a long way and never use undiluted:

Lemongrass

Cinnamon

Clove

Oregano

Thyme

Expectorant and Antiviral Oils:

Ravensara

Eucalyptus

Tea Tree (multipurpose bug killer)

Oils that soothe an inflamed respiratory tract:

Cedarwood

Frankincense

Pine

Spruce

Balsam Fir

Benzoin

Oils that support secondary bacterial infections and kill bacteria:

Rosemary

Peppermint

Lavender

Lemon

**Eucalyptus, Lavender, Cedarwood, Tea Tree, Lemon , Benzoin are safer less harsh oils to use around small children and Elderly.

If I am going to be dealing with a super bug I will have the harsh oils on hand and will use them safely and responsibly. When used safely

and responsibly they actually work most effectively and typically with no contraindications or negative impact.

Do not ingest essential oils they are 75-100x stronger than the plant, fruit, herb they are derived from. If you take anything internally keep it to herbs and supplements.

Used with permission from Jessica Kozack The Soul Purpose

And in closing:

We have talked about in past blogs on some of the herbs that MAY help fight off the virus TMS Post on Coronavirus

By staying healthy, eating right and doing your best to avoid crowded places and sick people is one of the best ways to beat this. Do your normal prepper things that we always do. DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE PANIC. Right now there is not to much to panic about. Other than your 401K taking a massive dump at the market. Right now it is almost impossible to get ibuprofen, Tylenol, basic cold and flu medicines at the local stores. There is for some reason there is a massive run on toilet paper at Costco.

You already had all that right? If not you have read our posts on cold and flu and other posts we have made on this? Good I thought so! Don’t panic. Do not over work yourself. And don’t get yourself all worked up over something out of your control. Stay out of crowds. If you feel sick STAY HOME. A lot of conferences around the country are being canceled. For good reason. As preppers we play it smart. Don’t forget that. Play it smart

Market Watch: How ‘Survivalists’ Are Preparing for Coronavirus Epidemic

Could this happen in the U.S.? A man walks around empty refrigerators in a supermarket in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.

From the folks at Market Watch, How America’s extreme ‘survivalists’ are preparing for a worst-case coronavirus epidemic — ‘beans, bullets and Band-Aids’

James Wesley Rawles is hunkered down at an undisclosed location west of the Rockies. “I’m not at liberty to say what state I live in,” he told MarketWatch via internet phone. “I live in the inland Northwest… more than two hours from any decent shopping. We could lock our gate and say goodbye to the world for two or three years and get along just fine.”

He’s on his ranch with a large family. “I’m not at liberty to discuss it,” says Rawles, a former U.S. Army Intelligence officer. “Let’s just say it is a very large family.”

This is a key moment for “preppers” or “survivalists” like Rawles. While the coronavirus has spooked markets into massive sell-offs and sent shoppers to stores like Costco COST, -0.03% to stock up on supplies, survivalists have been prepping for something like this for years. Even decades.

“I was a ‘prepper’ long before that term even came into being,” says Jim Cobb, author of Preppers’ Long-Term Survival Guide and Urban Emergency Survival Plan. “Since I was 16 years old,” says Rawles, when asked when he first started readying himself for a possible apocalypse. “That was in 1976.”

‘Be prepared for whatever life throws at you.’

—Jim Cobb, author of ‘Preppers’ Long-Term Survival Guide and Urban Emergency Survival Plan’

Nobody knows for sure, but there may be many more preppers in the U.S. The term covers everything from “doomsday preppers” in the northern mountain states to people who just make sure to be stocked up at home in case of disaster.

Rawles, the author of the “Patriots” doomsday novels, and the website survivalblog.com , has been living at his undisclosed ranch since 2006. He is a messianic Christian and a controversial figure. “The general public is clueless,” Rawles. “I call them the GDP — the Generally Dumb Public.”

Most people will be unprepared if there are shortages, or if they have to go into quarantine, he says. He’s watched the run on things like N95 face masks — despite health officials’ recommendation that the public not buy them — without surprise. “It is at times like this that the GDP wakes up,” he says. “My motto is panic now and beat the rush.”

“I’ve been doing it my whole life,” says “Doc Montana,” a survivalist who asked that MarketWatch not share his real name. “[A] lot of urban people aren’t prepared for a disaster,” he adds.

Cobb, meanwhile, lives in a more mainstream environment in Wisconsin, where he works as a disaster preparedness consultant and a writer. “I’m not an ‘end of the world is coming’ kind of guy,” he says. “It isn’t a case of having to batten down the hatches because the zombies are going to get us. For me, preparedness is common sense. Be prepared for whatever life throws at you.”

Some preppers say the coronavirus was on their radar in January

Rawles says he and other preppers noticed that the commodities markets were flashing alarm signals about China long before Wall Street paid attention. “We started raising alarms about this in early January,” says Rawles. “The commodities markets essentially fell apart.”

Oil slumped, he pointed out. Copper, a key leading indicator of economic activity, plunged. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks demand for global shipping, went south. He and many fellow preppers think the virus is likely to be a so-called “Black Swan event” — the term coined by author Nassim Taleb to describe major, sudden, and unpredictable shocks to the system.

Rawles, who says he is ready for his long-expected doomsday a scenario, says he holds his money in platinum, silver, and U.S. nickels, which he believes will be valuable because of their base metal content.

So far, the World Health Organization is calling coronavirus, or Covid-19, an epidemic rather than a pandemic. Worldwide, there had been over 90,000 cases and 3,100 deaths as of Tuesday. However, more than 80,000 of those cases are in China.

The WHO is calling coronavirus an ‘epidemic’ rather than a ‘pandemic.’

The definition of an epidemic and pandemic are somewhat vague. An epidemic refers to a surge in the number of cases of a disease, while a pandemic refers to a disease that has spread widely across countries and continents.

The WHO has declared the coronavirus a “global health emergency,” the organization’s highest alert level.

As President Trump confirmed during last week’s press conference on the disease, the federal government does have contingency plans, even including quarantining cities, if it should get much worse.

Many preppers don’t believe the reassurances about the scale of the epidemic, least of all the information coming out of China.

They both agree on one thing: a worst-case scenario is the most likely outcome. Some, like Rawles, fear the worst from the coronavirus. He thinks it is “unstoppable” and “will be all over the planet in the next months.” Doc Montana believes the authorities are trying to warn people to get ready without causing a stampede.

But others are more philosophical and, perhaps, less apocalyptic. “There is so much goofy stuff that is floating around on social media,” says Cobb. “You don’t know what’s right and what’s wrong.” His take? “No. 1, don’t worry about what you don’t know. Worry about what you can control. As a practical matter, prepping for a pandemic isn’t that different from prepping for a sudden job loss or a power outage.”

‘Don’t worry about what you don’t know. Worry about what you can control.’

—Jim Cobb, author of ‘Preppers’ Long-Term Survival Guide and Urban Emergency Survival Plan.’

Most preppers are nothing if not dramatic, and they have a variety of terms to describe total disaster. Most of them are acronyms…

Click here to continue reading at Market Watch

Doom and Bloom: Home Care for COVID-19 Patients – WHO Guidance

The Altons at Doom and Bloom Medical have a video up on the WHO recommendations for home care of a coronavirus infected patient who has been asked to stay at home after medical evaluation.

Coronavirus

In situations when hospitals may be overwhelmed or understaffed the WHO has released guidance for Home Care of patients with mild symptoms. All concerned patients should be first be evaluated in a medical facility before home care is initiated. These measures are meant to decrease public contacts and the spread of disease, and decrease the patient load on hospitals during epidemics and pandemics .

Learn which patients may be asked to stay home during illness and when they should be hospitalized. A link to a medical facility should be established for the entire duration of any home home care until all symptoms have cleared and the facility releases the patient and resolved. This connection will allow family members and the patient to be reassured there is contact with a medical professional for questions and concerns.

Home care takes planning and education about personal hygiene, basic infection prevention and control protocols, and how to safely care for the sick person without spreading it to other household members. Recommendations (from the World Health Organization) are detailed in this video. Also see our How To Build A Sickroom video.

Wishing you the best of health in good times and bad,

Organic Prepper: How to Prepare for Quarantine

Doom and Bloom: If COVID-19 Isn’t A Pandemic, I Don’t Know What is

From Dr. Alton and Nurse Amy Alton at Doom and Bloom Medical:

The SARS-CoV2 virus, newest member of the coronavirus family has proven to be especially contagious, with over 80,000 cases and 2700 deaths so far. Cases of COVID-19 (the name for the disease) have been reported in more than 30 countries and community-wide outbreaks are confirmed in places like Italy in Europe, Iran in the Middle East, and South Korea (among others).

Although the grand majority of cases are still in mainland China, more cases are being reported outside China than inside these days. South Korea has more than 1,260 cases and one of them is a U.S. soldier. Italy has 320 cases and 12 dead. Iran only claims 139 cases but 19 deaths, much more than the 2 percent fatality rate seen in other countries. Most suspect this means that many tens of thousands are still undetected.

Meanwhile, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) gave an opinion that “the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low at this time,” while also saying: “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when”.

Despite the many cases that are popping out throughout the world, Most U.S. experts and World Health Organization (WHO) officials believe that COVID-19 is not yet at pandemic status. If the COVID-19 outbreaks all over the world aren’t a pandemic, what is?

WHO Regions

The World Health Organization should consider following their own definitions for pandemic disease. The different WHO phase alerts for infectious disease outbreaks are:

Phase 1: The disease is found circulating in animals; no known infections in humans. An example would be an outbreak in 2019 of vesicular stomatitis virus, a disease that affected more than a thousand premises holding horses. No cases were reported among humans, even those who worked daily with the animals.

Phase 2: The disease has caused proven infection in humans. The bird flu affected millions of poultry as well as a number of people who lived and worked in close contact with them.

Phase 3: Small clusters of disease occur in humans but do not affect entire communities. Measles virus may affect a number of non-vaccinated people in an area, but the large number of vaccinated individuals prevents it from running rampant.

Phase 4: The disease affects entire communities. The disease now qualifies as an epidemic, but the risk for a pandemic, although increased, is not certain. With COVID-19 in early 2020, large areas in China were saturated with cases but no major community-wide outbreak had originated anywhere else for a time (outside of a cruise ship). Since then, other countries are reporting spikes in cases, with cases in South Korea doubling over the course of one day. In my opinion, COVID-19 has now passed this stage.

Community-wide Ebola outbreaks stayed in one region

Phase 5: Spread of disease between humans is occurring in more than one country in a region. The Ebola virus outbreak of 2014 is an example of this phase; cases affected communities in several different adjacent West African countries but no community outbreaks occurred outside of the region. In 2020, COVID-19 cases in nearby nations like South Korea and Japan are starting to accumulate, just as Ebola did in West African countries in 2014.

Phase 6: Community-level outbreaks exist in at least one additional country in a different region. With Ebola, cases in North America and Europe didn’t originate there and the infection didn’t take hold locally in any significant manner. Influenza, however, commonly reaches pandemic status on an annual basis.

COVID-19 in 2020 is developing large numbers of cases of human-to-human transmission outside of China. With outbreaks in Italy, Iran, South Korea, and elsewhere predicted to get worse before they get better, it’s clear you’ve got a pandemic on your hands. Right now.

I say this not just because of the cases that have been reported, but because we can only surmise that the number of cases documented is less than what really exist.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that real numbers are being held back. Statistics may be affected by the limitation on lab facilities to test for a disease. In some emerging infectious diseases, no test may be accurate enough to give proven results. In the COVID-19 outbreak, a number of people have tested negative using the current technology and still show symptoms.

Quarantines of entire cities in the face of a dangerous disease may lead those who are mildly ill to stay inside their homes and not seek care in overcrowded hospitals. As a result, many cases may not be counted.

Sometimes, however, a government may put out inaccurate numbers in an effort to avoid panic in its citizens. Certain regimes may limit the dissemination of information to give an unclear picture of the epidemic’s real effect on the country.

For example, we have no idea of how many cases of COVID-19 may exist in North Korea, a nation which borders China and most certainly has been affected. Yet, the government is completely silent about the SARS-COV2 virus.

Face Masks cannot be exported from China

When people are prepared, they can purposefully and rationally act to decrease their chance of infection. But to get prepared, most people look to their government’s health agencies for advice. Those health agencies should alert citizens with enough time to get the supplies they need and prepare.

Epidemics don’t just make people sick; they also disrupt the chain of supply. China, a major producer of face masks, has already mandated that they are no longer for export. In the U.S., many personal protection gear items are already scarce.

It’s important to know that there’s no need to panic. Hopefully, the CDC opinion is correct in its assessment that the immediate risk to Americans is low . If we are to weather this storm, however, we need to be shown the black clouds on the horizon. Declare a pandemic and let’s work to get our communities ready with a plan of action. Complacency can be hazardous to your health.

Virology Down Under: Past Time to Tell the Public It Will Go Pandemic

Virology Down Under is a website run by Ian Mackay, a PhD in virology. The following article was written for the site by Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman who are experts in risk communication and have written about risks involved with Ebola, Swine Flu and Zika in addition to Coronavirus. In Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now the authors discuss the fact that governments should already be telling people to get prepared for a pandemic and banned public gatherings. The time for trying to contain the virus is past and pandemic preparedness is upon us. Don’t expect the government to keep the virus from your door.

In addition to the dangers of the virus itself, people should be prepared for product shortages off all types if the coronavirus goes pandemic. There have already been reports of things like face masks, and some auto manufacturers have warned that factories will need to close because of a lack of parts from China. But there are more common everyday items that are at risk of shortage, too. For example, Procter & Gamble has warned that it may have supply problems with over 17,000 of its products because they are supplied through over 380 companies in China. Procter & Gamble is a huge supplier of consumer products including such brands as Charmin, Crest, Tide, Vicks, Gillette, Pampers, Always, Tampax, Pepto-Bismol, Olay, Old Spice, Secret, and many, many other common household names.

We are starting to hear from experts and officials who now believe a COVID-19 pandemic is more and more likely. They want to use the “P word,” and also start talking more about what communities and individuals can and should do to prepare. On February 22, Australian virologist Ian Mackay asked us for our thoughts on this phase of COVID-19 risk communication.

Here is our response.

Yes, it is past time to say “pandemic” – and to stop saying “stop”

It’s a good time to think about how to use the “P word” (pandemic) in talking about COVID-19. Or rather, it is past time.

It is important to help people understand that while you think – if you do think so – that this is going to be pandemic in terms of becoming very widespread, no one knows yet how much severe disease there will be around the world over short periods of time. “Will it be a mild, or moderate, or severe pandemic? Too soon to say, but at the moment, there are some tentative signs that….”

The most crucial (and overdue) risk communication task for the next few days is to help people visualize their communities when “keeping it out” – containment – is no longer relevant. The P word is a good way to launch this message.

But the P word alone won’t help the public understand what’s about to change: the end of most quarantines, travel restrictions, contact tracing, and other measures designed to keep “them” from infecting “us,” and the switch to measures like canceling mass events designed to keep us from infecting each other.

We are near-certain that the desperate-sounding last-ditch containment messaging of recent days is contributing to a massive global misperception about the near-term future. The theme of WHO’s and many governments’ messages – that the “window of opportunity” to stop spread of the virus is closing – is like the famous cover page of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach: “There is still time … Brother.”

For weeks we have been trying to get officials to talk early about the main goal of containment: to slow the spread of the virus, not to stop it. And to explain that containment efforts would eventually end. And to help people learn about “after containment.” This risk communication has not happened yet in most places.

So here is one more pitch for openness about containment. Officials: Please read Containment as Signal, Swine Flu Risk Miscommunication, which we wrote in 2009.

One horrible effect of this continued “stop the pandemic” daydream masquerading as a policy goal: It is driving counter-productive and outrage-inducing measures by many countries against travelers from other countries, even their own citizens back from other countries. But possibly more horrible: The messaging is driving resources toward “stopping,” and away from the main potential benefit of containment – slowing the spread of the pandemic and thereby buying a little more time to prepare for what’s coming.

We hope that governments and healthcare institutions are using this time wisely. We know that ordinary citizens are not being asked to do so. In most countries – including our United States and your Australia – ordinary citizens have not been asked to prepare. Instead, they have been led to expect that their governments will keep the virus from their doors.

Take the risk of scaring people

Whenever we introduce the word “pandemic,” it’s important to validate that it’s a scary word – both to experts and to non-experts – because it justifiably contains the implication of something potentially really bad, and definitely really disruptive, for an unknown period of time. This implication is true and unavoidable, even if the overall pattern of disease ends up being mild, like the 2009-10 “swine flu” pandemic.

Validate also that some people may accuse you of fear-mongering. And respond that hiding your strong professional opinion about this pandemic-to-be would be immoral, or not in keeping with your commitment to transparency, or unforgivably unprofessional, or derelict in your duty to warn, or whatever feels truest in your heart.

It may help to consider the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” fallacy. Feel free to say that “Jody Lanard and Peter Sandman say” that officials or experts – in this case YOU – are “darned if you do anddamned if you don’t.”  You’re only darned if you warn about something that turns out minor. But you’re damned, and rightly so, if you fail to warn about something that turns out serious.

It’s simply not true, in principle or in practice, that you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t!  Over-alarming risk messages are far more forgivable than over-reassuring ones.

Push people to prepare, and guide their prep

This is the most culpable neglected messaging in many countries at this point.

The main readiness stuff we routinely see from official and expert sources is either “DON’T get ready!” (masks), or “Do what we’ve always told you to do!” (hand hygiene and non-mask respiratory etiquette).

The general public, and many categories of civil society, are not actively being recruited to do anything different in the face of COVID-19 approaching.

A fair number of health care workers and communication officers tell us their hospitals and healthcare systems are just barely communicating about COVID-19. They want to be involved in how to prepare for “business not as usual.” We’re guessing that many hospital managements are in fact preparing for COVID-19, but we worry that they’re doing it too quietly, without enough effort to prepare their staff.

Lots of businesses, especially smaller ones, are doing off-the-cuff pre-pandemic planning. Several trade journals have articles about how specific industries should prepare for a likely pandemic. Around February 10, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted interim guidance for businesses. But we have seen almost nothing in mainstream media citing this guidance, or recommending business continuity strategies like urgent cross-training so that core functions won’t be derailed because certain key employees are out sick, for instance.

Pandemic planning research suggests that employees are likeliest to say they will show up for work during a pandemic if three specs are met – if they think their family is reasonably safe; if they think their employer is being candid with them about the situation; and if they have a pandemic-specific job assignment in addition to or different from their routine “peacetime” assignment.

Hardly any officials are telling civil society and the general public how to get ready for this pandemic.

Even officials who say very alarming things about the prospects of a pandemic mostly focus on how their agencies are preparing, not on how the people they misperceive as “audience” should prepare. “Audience” is the wrong frame. We are all stakeholders, and we don’t just want to hear what officials are doing. We want to hear what we can do too.

We want – and need – to hear advice like this:

Try to get a few extra months’ worth of prescription meds, if possible.

Think through now how we will take care of sick family members while trying not to get infected.

Cross-train key staff at work so one person’s absence won’t derail our organization’s ability to function.

Practice touching our faces less. So how about a face-counter app like the step-counters so many of us use?

Replace handshakes with elbow-bumps (the “Ebola handshake”).

Start building harm-reduction habits like pushing elevator buttons with a knuckle instead of a fingertip.

There is so much for people to do, and to practice doing in advance.

Preparedness is emotional too

Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally.  It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment everyone needs to have, and needs to get through, preferably without being accused of hysteria.

It is better to get through this OMG moment now rather than later.

Offering people a list of preparedness steps to choose among means that those who are worried and feeling helpless can better bear their worry, and those who are beyond worry and deep into denial can better face their worry.

Yet another benefit: The more people who are making preparedness efforts, the more connected to each other they feel. Pandemic preparedness should be a communitarian experience. When a colleague offers you an elbow bump instead of a handshake, your mind goes to those lists of preparedness recommendations you’ve been seeing, and you feel part of a community that’s getting ready together.

This OMG realization that we have termed the “adjustment reaction” (see http://www.psandman.com/col/teachable.htm) is a step that is hard to skip on the way to the new normal. Going through it before a crisis is full-blown is more conducive to resilience, coping, and rational response than going through it mid-crisis. Officials make a mistake when they sugarcoat alarming information, postponing the public’s adjustment reaction in the vain hope that they can avoid it altogether.

Specific pandemic preparedness messages

Below are links to specific preparedness messaging we drafted for a possible H5N1 pandemic. The links are all from our 2007 website column What to Say When a Pandemic Looks Imminent: Messaging for WHO Phases Four and Five. Each item is in two parts – a draft message (a summary sentence followed by a few paragraphs of elaboration), then a risk communication discussion of why we think it’s an appropriate pre-pandemic message. Because these were written with H5N1 in mind, the pandemic they contemplate is more severe and less likely than the one we contemplate today. So some changes may be called for – but frankly, in our judgment, not many.

We may have a window of opportunity now to make some practical preparations. We must make the most of it – even though the effort may be wasted if a severe pandemic doesn’t happen.

What matters most is how households, neighborhoods, community groups, and businesses prepare.

Individual and community preparations will focus on three tasks – reducing each person’s chance of getting sick, helping households with basic survival needs during a pandemic, and minimizing and coping with larger societal disruption.

Social distancing will be important but unpleasant.

School closings present a particularly difficult social distancing dilemma.

Hand-washing is far from a panacea. But it’s easy, it’s under your control, and it has no significant downside.

Like washing your hands, wearing a facemask may help a bit. But it has more downside than washing your hands.

Getting ready for a pandemic is largely about preparing for possible shortages.

It’s probably too late to stockpile much now, but do what you can.

Now is also the time to think about how you will care for loved ones at home.

To get ourselves through the hard times that may be coming, we will need volunteers. How can you help?

One of the scariest messaging failures in the developed world is not telling people vividly about what the end of containment will look like, for instance the end of contact-tracing and most quarantines.

The FAQs on the Singapore Ministry of Health webpage (https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19/faqs) can serve as a model that other developed countries can adapt to start talking to their publics about this now, to reduce the shock and anger when governments stop trying to contain all identified cases.

What’s working for us

We’d like to share with you some of our recent everyday life experiences in talking about pandemic preparedness with people who perceive us as a bit knowledgeable about what may be on the horizon. Some of this overlaps with the more generic comments above.

1.      We’ve found it useful to tell friends and family to try to get ahead on their medical prescriptions if they can, in case of very predictable supply chain disruptions, and so they won’t have to go out to the pharmacy at a time when there may be long lines of sick people. This helps them in a practical sense, but it also makes them visualize – often for the first time – how a pandemic may impact them in their everyday lives, even if they don’t actually catch COVID-19. It simultaneously gives them a small “Oh my God” moment (an emotional rehearsal about the future) – and something to do about it right away to help them get through the adjustment reaction.

2.      We also recommend that people might want to slowly (so no one will accuse them of panic-buying) start to stock up on enough non-perishable food to last their households through several weeks of social distancing at home during an intense wave of transmission in their community.  This too seems to get through emotionally, as well as being useful logistically.

3.      Three other recommendations that we feel have gone over well with our friends and acquaintances:

Suggesting practical organizational things they and their organizations can do to get ready, such as cross-training to mitigate absenteeism.

Suggesting that people make plans for childcare when they are sick, or when their child is sick.

4.      And the example we like the best, because it gives every single person an immediate action that they can take over and over: Right now, today, start practicing not touching your face when you are out and about! You probably won’t be able to do it perfectly, but you can greatly reduce the frequency of potential self-inoculation. You can even institute a buddy system, where friends and colleagues are asked to remind each other when someone scratches her eyelid or rubs his nose. As we noted earlier, someone should develop a face-touching app – instead of a step-counting app to encourage you to walk more, how about an app to encourage you to auto-inoculate less! And track your progress, and compete with your friends, even!

The last message on our list – to practice and try to form a new habit – has several immediate and longer-term benefits.

Having something genuinely useful to do can bind anxiety or reduce apathy. You feel less helpless and less passive.

And you can see yourself improving.

And you can work on your new habit alone, and also in a pro-social communitarian way. Others can help you do it, and you can help them.

And it yields real harm reduction! It is arguably the endpoint of what washing your hands is for, and it helps when you can’t wash your hands out in the world.

Like all good pandemic preparedness recommendations, it helps you rehearse emotionally, as well as logistically.

The bottom line

Every single official we know is having multiple “Oh my God” moments, as new COVID-19 developments occur and new findings emerge. OMG – there is a fair amount of transmission by infected people with mild or subclinical cases! OMG – there is a high viral load early on in nasal and pharyngeal samples! OMG – the Diamond Princess, how can that have been allowed to happen! And on and on.

Officials help each other through those moments. They go home and tell their families and friends, sharing the OMG sensation. And then what do they tell the public? That they understand that “people are concerned” (as if they themselves weren’t alarmed), but “the risk is low and there’s nothing you need to do now.”

Ian, it sounds like you want to argue on behalf of preparedness.  Encouraging all stakeholders to prepare logistically should start now, if not sooner. And you are in a position not just to encourage logistical preparedness, but also to encourage government sources and other experts like yourself to do the same. Perhaps even more important, in our judgment: You can try to encourage emotional preparedness, and try to encourage other official and expert sources to encourage emotional preparedness – guiding people’s OMG adjustment reactions instead of trying to stamp them out.

The Organic Prepper: The CDC Warns Businesses, Schools, Communities to Prepare NOW for Covid19: “THE DISRUPTION OF DAILY LIFE MIGHT BE SEVERE.”