2018 NW APRS Summer Gathering, North Bend, Sept. 7-9th

From the folks who run the NW APRS Summer Gathering:

Summer Gathering 2018!
Back for the 21st year it is once again time for the Annual NWAPRS Summer Gathering
This year September 7-9 (always the weekend after Labor Day) at Valley Camp  6 miles east of North Bend Washington.
For us location precision nuts the GPS coordinates for a point near the center of camp are:
47.4662216  -121.6804046  (Highly accurate GPS control point)
(The first to find what’s at this location and show a picture of it to K7FZO wins a special door prize)
Directions to camp for those needing actual pictures, maps and words can be found here: Directions to Valley Camp or the bottom of the Summer Gathering webpage.The Summer Gathering is an event for everyone involved in Amatuer Radio that wants to learn about what’s new in the hobby, meet people involved in the newest technologies that create the opportunities to experiment and advance the hobby.
Because the Summer Gathering has always been a very social event, we suggest taking advantage of all the opportunities we provide to spend time with other Hams involved in the hobby.Friday evening social time, ice cream anyone? Or share a beverage with friends, this usually goes until around 10PM, later if you don’t need sleep, but quiet time in camp is 10PM to 7AM.Saturday morning Breakfast, provided by the West Seattle Amatuer Radio Club, starts at 7AM with coffee and a full breakfast prepared by our chef Curt WR5J and his helpers.The event officially begins at 8:45AM with the first presentation at 9AM
Lunch at noon will be provided, as to what it will be and the cost is being worked on right now, so stay tuned.
Afternoon sessions begin at 1PM with a wrap-up session at 5PM
Dinner plans are currently being discussed, once again stay tuned.
After Dinner open time for discussions, Q&A with presenters, and project show-n-tell.Sunday starts with coffee available at 7AM followed by a full breakfast once again prepared for you by Curt WR5J.
Sunday presentations will begin at 9AM.
Lunch and the afternoon program are still in discussion. If you have ideas please send them to Thom at
summergathering@wa7vc.org

Saturday presentation slots have been filled, we are working on some great ideas for Sunday. We are looking to you for ideas that you feel should be discussed and volunteer presenters.
Once again, if you want to facilitate, share a project, or know someone we should contact let us know by emailing  summergathering@wa7vc.org

The current presentation schedule is available on the WA7VC website which will be updated as changes are made.
Presentations are held in the large picnic shelter, you can improve your seating experience by bringing your own comfy folding camp chair, coffee and hot water for tea will be available all day.

With just a month to go, it would be a great idea to make your reservations soon for Friday and or Saturday nights accommodations.
Full Service RV sites, parking for RV’s not needing services, tent sites, and bunk space in the Teneriffe Lodge are currently available. Please contact Teena at Valley Camp to reserve your space at   info@valleycamp.org
Discuss with Teena at Valley Camp the cost for these overnight accommodations.

It is time to make sure the SUMMER GATHERING is on your calendar!

August 17 Update:

Updates this week

Accommodations

  • RV sites – If you don’t already have a site reserved, I’m sorry to say all the Full Service sites are spoken for. If you want to dry camp in your RV I’m sure we can find you a place, just contact Teena at info@valleycamp.org
  • Tent sites – We still have plenty of room for tent campers, make your reservations soon.
  • Cabin – Is booked
  • Roundhouse – is booked
  • Lodge – The last 2 lower bunks are waiting for the next 2 to ask. After that you’ll need to be small and very agile to claim an upper bunk.
  • Local Hotels – The Edgewick Inn  http://www.edgewickinn.com/ is 3 miles away and just off I-90 at exit 34. Next closest hotels are in Issaquah about 20 minutes west of North Bend

Food

Saturday and Sunday Breakfasts are brought to you by Curt, WR5J of the West Seattle Amateur Radio Club. Curt is once again our morning chef but I am sure would not turn down any help in the kitchen especially getting setup and cleaning up.
Saturday and Sunday lunches will be provided by the WA7VC Amateur Radio Group
Friday dinner is on your own, Saturday Dinner is still be discussed but whatever is decided a large BBQ will be available if you want to cook your own dinner.
We will be providing a way to poll all who plan to attend next week so we can determine how much food to purchase.

Program Updates

The current program can be found here:  https://wa7vc.org/nwaprssg
We have added 4 topics on Sunday, from how to be a nature friendly operator to how to get to near space cheaper than being a space tourist.
The Saturday program is offering the newest information on one of the hottest topics in Amateur Radio voice communications, DMR.
  • So what’s the huge interest propelling the growth of DMR?
  • Maybe it is the 2 simultaneous talk paths in each repeater?
  • Or is it the inexpensive DMR radios?
  • Maybe it is the control of a “Talkgroup” that enables the repeater to link to a thousand repeaters around the world or a talkgroup that only repeats on the local repeater.
  • Could it be the rich feature set that puts the control in the hands of a hotSpot owner, a club, EmComm group, a state or or a region?
  • How is DMR different from D-Star and System Fusion?
It is all of these things!  You are about to find out all this and more!
If you want to dive in now so you are able to ask really good questions of our presenters check out these links: Welcome to PNW DMR   PNW DMR Best practices   PNW Quick Start
As you will see on the program list there is a wide range of cutting edge topics available Saturday and Sunday. As part of the deep dive into technologies we provide lots of social time to visit with each other, and with the presenters, while enjoying a meal together, a special dessert being created by Lynn – N7CFO, and time during the evenings to just sit around and talk. The Summer Gathering has always been about sharing ideas, and enjoying the personal side of the hobby as well.
Speaking about gathering together, do you know who has never missed a Summer Gathering in 21 years?

Misc.

We recently were given several door prizes we will make available by way of a raffle drawing including gift certificates from the ARRL and a really cool gift from N3FJP www.n3fjp.com
Maybe more, watch for the next updates.
AUGUST 31 Updates:
With just one week to go, here are the things you need to know……
Summer Gathering, the 21st annual gathering of amateur radio enthusiasts from all over the Northwest corner of the Americas exploring the newest in technologies in the hobby. We gather to share ideas, projects, and accomplishments that help to keep this great hobby on the cutting edge, and, to all learn something new from each other while having fun actually seeing and talking to each other in person.
Important Updates This Week (August 31st 2018)

Accommodations

We now have a wait list for bunk space and RV sites so if life suddenly changes and you can’t join us please contact
Teena at info@valleycamp.org and let her know so she can help the next on the list with accommodations.
We still have space for more tents and campers that do not need power, water or sewer.

Food

50 of you have responded and here is what we are buying food for next week unless we hear back from you by Monday afternoon September 3rd. Then we will add you to the list.
  • Saturday Breakfast – 32
  • Saturday Lunch – 44
  • Saturday Dinner – 33
  • Sunday Breakfast – 28
  • Sunday Lunch – 25
Coffee and hot water will be available all weekend.
All water in camp is clear fresh mountain well water, enjoy!
If you have just decided to attend please let us know by Monday the 3rd if you will be joining us and for which meals.
If you have not already responded to this survey please fill it out now.
If you have already responded thank you, we will see you soon.
We still need some volunteers to help with food prep, serving and cleanup, talk to Curt and Teena when you arrive.

Program

There has been little change in the program with exception of a few additional additions to already scheduled topics. You can find the program list here: https://wa7vc.org/nwaprssg 
Things can change at the last minute so we will post all we know at the shelter Friday afternoon.

Lots of Extras

  • Yes, there will be some door prizes given away Saturday around 5 PM. To take home a prize you must be in attendance at 5PM.
  • Campfires – As of right now we are under a state mandated complete fire ban. No open flame, except for cooking on the grill, and no smoking anywhere on the property including buildings or trails. If we see you smoking we will assume you are on fire and take appropriate actions.
  • If you have a comfortable folding camp chair bring it along. The picnic benches are 60 year old very hard 2×12’s.
  • Internet Access – Please turn off automatic updates on computers and do not do large downloads while in camp, this includes movie/video streaming. You are sharing an old slow CenturyLink pipe with everyone else.
  • WiFi network login info will be available at the event.
  • The vehicle Speed Limit inside Valley Camp is 5 MPH. We have lots of small critters and none of them get out of the way of vehicles including the 2 leg variety.
  • Pets – If you must bring your pet it has to stay on a 6 foot leash and stay connected to you at all times. We also expect you to clean up after it and be very careful feeding it, any spilled food attracts wild animals, some you don’t want to meet at night.
  • Parking while at the event – Please be aware that not all RV’s in the campground are attending the Summer Gathering so please do not block vehicles parked in front of RV’s. Parking is best accomplished west of the RV area along the road towards the Lodge and Roundhouse.
  • The Summer Gathering is funded only through donations of the attendees, no outside organization financially sponsors the event. Please consider what this event is worth to you and donate appropriately. There will be several places to leave your donations, the main one being the green MAILBOX marked DONATIONS in the shelter and if you would like to make a donation using a credit card Teena can make that work.
Valley Camp is the conduit for all donations and it is a 501(c)3 not for profit organization.
Online donation opportunities can be found here on the first page:  http://valleycamp.org

Weather

As of a week out, the weather looks like it will be in the 60’s and 70’s with a partly cloudy sky and a very little chance of rain. However this event is in the Cascade Mountains of Washington state anything is possible so come prepared.

Last Thoughts

Once again if you have not already completed the survey please do so here:  SG Survey
If you have to cancel please contact Teena at info@valleycamp.org
If you want to look at the schedule it can be found here: https://wa7vc.org/nwaprssg
If you want to volunteer to help with meals talk to Curt and Teena
If you would like to see this event back in 2019 please donate generously!
See you in a week!!
73 from the WA7VC team and friends

FO: Five Reasons Why We’ll Have Another Domestic Conflict

Sam Culper over at the Forward Observer intelligence shop has a new article up titled Five reasons why we’ll have another domestic conflict.

Demographically, culturally, fiscally, we’re hemorrhaging as a country. Studies show that most immigrants, legal or illegal, have a political predilection towards larger, more authoritarian government. They do or will vote Democrat. That’s why amnesty is the death knell for the right-leaning electorate. And amnesty is only a matter of time, which means the GOP as a nationally viable party could have an expiration date within your lifetime. Several states, including Texas, were decided by fewer votes than those states have illegal immigrants. Amnesty pushes those states blue, which then push a far Left agenda in a Democrat-controlled Congress. That writing is on the wall.

Without amnesty, studies show that larger percentages and greater numbers of future generations are slightly or consistently liberal. Millennials are the least white voting generation on record; Generation Z is less white than Millennials, and these two groups are or would vote for Leftist populists (like Bernie Sanders) in far greater numbers than previous generations. If we look at political leanings by generation (graph below), we can see the decline in percentage of those mostly or consistently conservative. (Look at each generation in 2017, for instance.) The opposite is also true: the Baby Boomer generation in 2017 had a greater percentage of mostly or consistently liberal than the Silent Generation; Generation X had a higher percentage than the Baby Boomers; and the Millennial generation has a higher percentage than Generation X. Each generation is becoming more liberal due wholly to immigration. Because immigration is little more than importing future Democrat voters, I don’t see how the GOP hangs on to anything outside of regional power without a cultural resurgence (like Reagan, for instance).

Click here to continue reading at Forward Observer.

Olympia Gun Rights Rallies, April 14th and 21st, 2018

Two rallies are planed in Olympia to support Second Amendment rights.

The first is organized by The National Constitutional Coalition of Patriotic Americans and will be help Saturday, April 14th from 5:30 pm – 8:30 pm on the capitol steps. Contrary to the graphic below which shows 11:00 am, a competing event moved the WA rally to 5:30 pm. You can visit their site on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/162140641170312/

The second rally will be held on April 21st from 12:00pm – 3:00pm also at the capitol. Visit their page on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/events/1661802327190025/

Speakers for this rally include:

Organizer/ MC: Tessa Ashley
Opening Prayer: Chief Ben Charles, Lower Elwha Tribe
***National Anthem: Kerry French
***Pledge of Allegiance: Aryeh Rohde
***Seattle Pink Pistol- Sharyn Hinchcliffe
***Robert J Sutherland- 39th District Candidate
***Marty McClendon (Former Lt. Gov. Candidate)
***Jered Gavin- 05 District Candidate
***Elizabeth Scott- 39th Senator Candidate
*** Rep. Jim Walsh – 19th district
***Tiffany De Leon- Libertarian State Vice Chair
***Joey Gibson- US Senate Candidate
***Tyler Miller- Initiative 1621 Secure Safe Schools
***Naomi Davis- 26th District Candidate
*** Aryeh Rohde- Highschool Student that led a counter protest for “March For Our Lives” @ S.Whidbey Island H.S
***Allen Acosta- Libertarians MC/ Gun Rights Coalition
***Isa Cline- Long Beach City Councilman
***Kyle Paskewitz- Founder of Family Court Reform Nation
***Randy Vanaddisson- Former Air Marshall

Brushbeater: Integrating Inter-Team Communications Into Your Kit

NC Scout from Brushbeater blog has some good notes up on Guidelines for Integrating Inter-Team Communications Into Your Kit.

The cornerstone of why you need communications in the field is unit coordination. Teams must have a way to relay what they see and update the situation to other partner teams in the field and to a command location. This is what’s known as Inter-Team Communications and should be thought of as your lifeline for the Small Unit. One of the topics briefly covered in the RTO Course is how to integrate squad-level commo gear into your kit. After training with several groups I’ve noticed that this normally is an afterthought, so it’s something that I address through demonstration of my own gear during the second day. While I don’t require anyone to bring anything to class other than a notebook, pen, comfy shoes and a good attitude, on the FTX there is a little bit of team movement and scratching the surface on Small Unit Tactics (SUT) that I cover elsewhere. There’s a lot of reasons I do this, but its mostly to prove to the student they’re effective with almost nothing.  Everything else is an enhancement to the skill they’re building. Basics never change, and proper adherence of the basics will get you through most situations. The point is not that its an SUT class- its that you’re using your training and gear in the intended environment and showing me that you can apply what you just learned. An RTO (Or RATELO for you Marines) is a critical element of the small unit and as a recent Scout class learned, can be the hardest job on the Team. Together we lay the foundation and provide a context, so that everything else becomes easy and you can add to it to suit your group’s needs. Among the takeaways through a hands on approach is how to integrate Inter-Team communications efficiently into your own personal Second Line or ‘Deuce’ gear (also known as ‘kit’). One of the biggest issues for those looking to conduct patrolling is how to effectively integrate basic communications equipment into their patrolling kits- there’s a right way and a less-right way, centered around making life just a tad easier while moving tactically…

Click here to read the entire article at Brushbeater.

Bleyhl Co-op Workshops, April 2018

Sheep/Goat Owners Workshop

Thursday, April 12th, 6:30pm

Sunnyside Store (509) 837-5755

or

Thursday, April 26th, 6:30pm

Pasco Store (509) 547-5577

RSVP to save a seat

 

Plant Your Own Herb Garden

Saturday, April 14th, 10:00 am – 2:00 pm

Zillah Store (509) 829-6922

Choose three herb plants, all supplies, and directions provided. $5 per person while supplies last.

Prosser Area Thefts/Burglaries, Apr. 6, 2018

LVA members have reported and Prosser Police have confirmed an unusual number of burglaries and thefts in the Prosser area overnight. Thefts mainly appear to be from unlocked vehicles, RVs, and trailers as well as unsecured items such as bicycles, but there have been break-ins as well. Be on the lookout for suspicious persons. Lock up your vehicles and outbuildings.

Excerpt from “Locusts on the Horizon”

“Hunger is not a problem of too many people on the planet, nor is hunger a problem of the planet’s inability to feed everyone that currently lives on it. Hunger is caused by human actions.

“The horrific fact is that from the 19th Century to the present time, most of the worst famines on the planet have been caused not by an apocalypse of nature, or a worldwide shortage of food, but by the hand of man. More often than not these famines were caused by the intentional, deliberate actions of those in positions of power and influence, for either political or economic reasons.

“One of the causes of famines has been the decisions and actions of a powerful elite few who decide that their personal wealth and power are more important than the lives of the ‘little people’.

“For those who think it can’t happen in the USA, because this country is a ‘bread basket’, think again. Many Americans today are descendants of those who fled one of the worst famines in European history. It was a deadly famine which occurred in the midst of plenty while living in a country which was a bread basket.

“Ireland, during a seven year period starting in 1845, in the very heart of the powerful and wealthy British Empire, lost almost a quarter of its entire population either through death or fleeing refugees, due to a famine triggered by a potato blight. A common name for this event was the great Irish Potato Famine. Many Irish call this event, An Gorta Mór, which means, The Great Hunger…

Continue reading “Excerpt from “Locusts on the Horizon”” →

FO: Intelligence and Community Security, Day 01

The intel guys at Forward Observer have started up their new Intelligence and Community Security series. Read it to learn what intelligence is, how to get it, and how it is critical to preparedness.  Here is an excerpt from Day 01.

America’s trajectory is pointing towards another conflict. It’s something many of us have suspected for a long time, and the question is What exactly will it look like? Perhaps a better question is Are we already in it?  My answer is probably, and I’ll describe what I believe could happen in the future. In short: empirical data shows that any potential conflict is likely going to be driven by demographic and economic change. Amnesty and a return to liberal immigration policies are less than a decade away, and artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics are likely to create more job loss than jobs created. This disproportionately affects low skill, low wage workers, meaning higher youth unemployment, which is already an early warning indicator of civil unrest around the world; and amnesty and unlimited immigration is a vehicle to amass political dominance because of the preferences of those receiving the amnesty.

These two likely unstoppable trends are going to accelerate the adoption of identitarianism based on race (social justice) and class (economic justice) instead of civic nationality. Amnesty will overwhelmingly benefit the Democratic Party at a time when a pivot to left wing populism is much needed to counter a rise in right wing populism. The effects, centered on anti-capitalist, anti-American, pro-social “justice”, and pro-international socialist policies, are going to permanently change the political landscape of America. If this is happens as soon as five or ten years from now, then we should probably expect a culture war that moves from sporadic violence to routine violence, especially in regions where government is unable or unwilling to intervene. (There are a lot more factors at play here and I’ll be sure to provide a comprehensive break down in future blog posts.)

This all sounds pretty pessimistic and, as we’ve seen with prognostications about financial and societal collapse (heaviest from 2007 to 2016), there’s a tendency by many to overstate the conditions and shorten the timeline in anticipation of events that will likely happen much later than predicted. No one can predict the future with any certainty, but we can identify what could occur in the future, and this is one such possibility. Whether it happens in two years or twenty, very significant and persistent socioeconomic conditions are a certainty, which are likely to result in some form of domestic conflict. Our next major hurdles are (1) the period between November’s mid-terms and the 2020 general election, and (2) the next recession, which could rival 2008’s in economic and financial terms, but with the toxic political and cultural climate of today. That’s a good time to revisit this potential future and revise as necessary based on the conditions.

With that as our starting point, the next question is Which systems will be disrupted and how will it affect our communities? We’ll save that for later this month, because for now we’re focusing on intelligence and community security.

A framework for understanding decision-making

We need a framework to understand how decisions are made, and we need to understand what’s necessary for good decision-making. We can make decisions without any information, and unfortunately many people do. Some information may allow us to make better decisions, but ultimately we need intelligence to make good decisions…

Click here to read the entire post.

Republicans Are Anti-Second Amendment, Too.

Karl Denninger at Market-Ticker.org has an article up titled Trump’s Gun Control (And Other Broken Promises): PA, but it’s really about Republican politicians at all levels voting against your right to protect your own life.

…The common rubric from the NRA and others is that one must vote “Red” lest the gun-grabbers get in power and do their thing.  Uh, no — the last 20+ years says exactly the opposite.  Even a Democrat majority in all three locations of the Federal Government was unable to do anything destructive to gun rights during Obama’s first two years.

Yet a Republican majority in all three houses plus in Florida has been extremely destructive in a matter of weeks and it was a Republican governor that signed that bill in Florida along with a Republican House and Senate that passed it.

It gets worse.  The Trump ATF is doing the exact opposite of honoring the Second Amendment.  In fact they and Trump literally just ripped up the entire Constitution including the 5th Amendment. Right here, right now.

Contemplate the entire “bump stock” thing folks.  These were sold as legal accessories for years.  Millions of dollars changed hands for them, people were employed and now they’re in the hands of individuals.  A formal legal ruling was issued by the BATFE that these were legal accessories; the manufacturers and buyers didn’t assume, they asked for and obtained a written declaration that these devices not only complied with the law they didn’t require any sort of labeling, serialization or other form of control (such as a background check) as legally they were nothing more than a piece of plastic.

The government is, of course, entitled to be wrong and repair that error which is what they’re claiming they’re doing now.  What it’s not entitled to do, however, is turn you into a felon if you don’t destroy or turn over a thing you were explicitly told, in writing, was legal and nothing more-nefarious or subject to regulation than a plastic box.  At absolute minimum the government is required (under the 5th Amendment) to pay you for the current fair market value of that device plus all your costs (e.g. sales tax) associated with same and to pay the manufacturers the imputed value of their facility, inventory and forward foregone earnings (and employee salaries) that would have been generated but for their error.  They could also ban the things on a forward basis (limiting any 5th Amendment claim of “taking” to the manufacturers) and leave alone anyone who already owns one.

Instead they claim to be able to retroactively declare anyone who has one of these a felon and then shoot them if they refuse to either turn them over or report to prison for 10 years after having given written confirmation that the device in question is lawful to own, possess, use and sell without any permit whatsoever...

Read the entire article by clicking here.

John Mosby: Craftsmanship in Preparedness

As usual, John Mosby of Mountain Guerrilla blog has some insightful comments on prepping in general and on the more important craftsmanship of living a self-sufficient life which results in being prepared for whatever life throws your way. Some people don’t like the things JM says nor the way he says them, but even if you disagree with his conclusions, the ideas that he presents are well worth contemplating.

…As I discussed in my books, while the occurrence of a single, instantly-identifiable “SHTF” trigger event would be remarkably convenient, it’s not likely. Even in the case of an event that popular prepper porn novels make out to be THE event—solar flare, EMP, economic collapse, etc—the fact is, collapses of major civilizations take years, decades, and even centuries to fall all the way to “dark ages” status. That’s not popular, and it’s not convenient, but it is reality.

“But! Violent struggle in the streets!” “But, mah second civil war!” “Riots!” “Collapse of the Dollar!”

Sure, all of those are bad, but, especially at the local level, none of them are really “TEOTWAWKI” either, in most places. Sure, parts of major metropolitan areas are going to get ugly. A lack of potable drinking water from the taps. Absence of police presence making violent crime more likely. Control of whole neighborhoods by criminal gangs and cartels. A breakdown in the infrastructure system. Squatting by newly homeless people…Yeah, that’ll be different…

Guess what? That IS the norm, right now. You think an EMP going off is going to make it worse? Maybe. Maybe not. I’m betting on not. In fact, in a lot of ways, I suspect life for the residents of … ghettos in large urban areas will get BETTER after an event that draws more attention away from them, when the shadow governments that are already in place, in the form of criminal cartels, can move about more openly. No more pretense of divided loyalties between the government, the relief agencies, and the local gangs. The gangs will stomp out unaffiliated criminal actors in a hurry. Sure, it’ll be despotism, and if you’re an attractive female of breeding age, it’ll probably suck for the indefinite future, but, as a general thing, that’s just as true now.

What benefits will accrue the inner city? They have a new governing body in place that has a proven track record for getting a niche product into the community, under difficult conditions. Are groceries as profitable as drugs? Not right now, but in the event of a major event? It’s not like drug dealing gangs are in it because of the drugs. They’re in it because of the money, and the power the money brings them. How long do you think it will take a local gang to switch over from smuggling drugs to smuggling carrots? Hell, they don’t even need to smuggle carrots. They can get their mamas and grannies to grow them on the roofs and in the deserted lots.

Rural places? The power goes out in my neighborhood when a good storm blows. A cartel safehouse was raided and busted less than a couple miles from my house, last year. There was over $2 million worth of contraband on the place. My neighbor told me that our other neighbor had something like 50 head of cattle rustled out of his pasture, in broad daylight, two months ago. The closest town to us has signs in the front yard of several businesses and houses openly acknowledging the corruption in the municipal government. You know what people do?

They live. They have backup generators, or they are off-grid completely. Of my six closest neighbors, every single family raises a serious garden every year (as in, somewhere over 100% of their annual intake of vegetables. Some gets sold, some gets canned for storage, some gets given away), and every family raises their own chickens for meat and eggs. Half have a larger meat animal on the place as well, either beef cattle or pigs. Three of the neighbors have a family cow each.

Read the entire article by clicking here. Also as usual, the article is spiked with JM’s typically NCO colorful epithets and aphorisms which may offend the sensibilities of some readers.

Forward Observer: Intel, Security, and Defense for Community Preparedness

Forward Observer has a post up about their return to a focus on training communities for disaster preparedness planning rather than the Early Warning briefs they have been posting and emailing. The folks over at Forward Observer have been a real asset to communities trying to prepare for a few years now.  Sam Culper’s SHTF Intelligence book, and the FO Area Intelligence Course are very good tools for learning how to think about what you should be thinking about. At the heart of intelligence is the ability to reduce uncertainty. What intelligence brings to the table is an ability to make well-informed, time-sensitive decisions. Get trained. Get intelligence. Be prepared.

I started this Forward Observer intelligence project in 2016 because I was concerned.

Rising and unsustainable national debt, expanding government authority and the continued loss of individual liberty, the militarization of police, the rise of cultural and economic Marxism, the risk of war with Russia and China, the risk of systems disruption via cyber and financial vulnerabilities — there were lot of things going on that greatly concerned me. And the question I ask is, has any of this really changed in two years?

If nothing else, many of these things are actually worse today and, despite our best hopes and optimism, the trend is set to continue. It’s very conceivable that in another two years, this country is much worse off. An economic recession, a major war, a major cyber attack, an increase in political violence — all these things have a growing likelihood.

I left the U.S. intelligence community in 2012 because I, like many of you, could see the proverbial “writing on the wall”. Considering the threats, I no longer wanted to live in a built-up area. I didn’t want to work for a government that didn’t promote the best interests of the American People. I didn’t want to serve a president who was actively undermining everything I loved about my country. So I left my job as an intelligence analyst and never once regretted it.

A lot of the fears and, at times, panic induced in the emergency preparedness community never came to fruition. Part of that reason is because a lot of the fears were exaggerated, which is why I guide my analysis through the maxim: the more extreme the prediction, the less likely it is to occur. I don’t and have never believed in total economic collapse or complete societal collapse; instead, I believed and still today believe that conditions will continually break down over a period of years until some trigger (like a major recession, some act of significant political violence, or maybe a cyber attack) is the catalyst for parts of the nation to just devolve into active conflict. It may go so slowly that it catches the mainstream by surprise, but even the mainstream is picking up on the idea that we’re moving into a reality where a domestic conflict is conceivable.

And this brings me to the Early Warning. At a meeting yesterday, we brainstormed about how we could best serve our readers in light of what’s probably going to happen in the future. Ultimately, we decided that I need to start writing again about intelligence, security, and defense for community and disaster preparedness planning. If you followed my old blog Guerrillamerica from 2011-2015, then you’re already familiar with the kinds of things I write about: intelligence collection and analysis, reducing uncertainty and navigating an uncertain future, how to build resiliency and security at the community level, and what warfighting will look like during an irregular conflict, like the one I believe we’re heading towards. So in lieu of the daily Early Warning report and email, I’m going to spend my early morning time on something that’s way more valuable, which is teaching these skills and concepts so you can use them in your everyday preparedness planning…

Continue reading at Forward Observer.

Brushbeater: Skills Over Gear

cropped-brushbeaterSkills Over Gear, or, Doing More With Less via Brushbeater blog

Clothes don’t make the man. All too often in the Survivalist & Prepper scene a lot of focus gets placed on gear. In fact so much so that a lot of sites devolve into simply reviewing individual pieces, which in turn is basically an overview with nothing else. And don’t get me wrong, I love some good kit and appreciate original or out-of-the-box thinking that goes into really innovative products. But skill, specifically mastery of basic skills, can never be supplanted by a product. And in turn, no product will make you better if the fundamentals ain’t there first. Those fundamentals, with some very basic supporting gear, lay the foundation for you to be effective whether it’s combat weaponcraft, movements in potentially hostile environments, or tactical communications. The basics of anything never, ever change. And you might be surprised at what can be done with just a mastery of what’s simple.

TRP.jpgI was in between deployments somewhere around a decade ago and…

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A Good Sheriff Is Important

From Conservative Tribune

A Democrat candidate for sheriff in Buncombe County, North Carolina, says that he has no problem killing legal gun owners to confiscate their weapons if the situation arises, according to video posted to social media.

If similar video on R. Daryl Fisher’s Facebook page is labeled accurately, the candidate’s remarks came at a monthly meeting of gun control group and Everytown for Gun Safety subsidiary Moms Demand Action on March 7.

“You’ve heard people say, ‘You’ll have to pry my gun from my cold, dead hands,’” Fisher said, and then gave a shrug. “OK,” he said to laughter.

There is video posted with the article.

Oregon: No Coastal Hospitals Likely to Be Functional After Large CSZ Quake

A new Oregon State Department of Geology report concludes that “no hospital facilities are likely to be functional due to the expected severity of a magnitude 9 Cascadia earthquake and tsunami damage. Seismic vulnerabilities include building structures; non-structural components that are part of the building as well as equipment; and the limitations of on-site utilities such as power and water. Four of the eleven hospitals are located in the tsunami evacuation zone and face difficulties with tsunami planning. ” The hospitals were constructed before CSZ earthquake expectations were known, and suffere from inadequate seismic resilience.  There are worries about fuel and water accessibility post-quake in addition to the possible damage from the earthquake and tsunami. The hospitals are expected to take over three years to recover from such a quake.

Download the DOGAMI report here (pdf)