Tag: coronavirus

Reminder to Check on Vulnerable Neighbors

There have been some stories shared on social media of people being carefully approached by strangers who are in the high-risk categories for COVID-19 (older adults and people with heart disease, diabetes or lung disease) and asked for help with shopping or other resources, because the strangers are afraid to expose themselves by going into crowded stores themselves. Sometimes they are being given cash and a shopping list, which exposes these high-risk people to both theft and then not having supplies. If you have neighbors whom you know are in a high risk group, it is a good idea to contact them (ideally via a remote method that doesn’t expose them to anything you may be carrying) and ask if you can assist them with any preparations. You could also print them an OK/HELP sign so that they can notify neighbors if they need assistance, and the people for whom they have phone numbers aren’t able to respond to help.

Be mindful that you still need to practice good hygiene to prevent infection in either direction when passing off goods or payment.

AYWtGS: Handling Quarantine with Kids

Karen at A Year Without the Grocery Store has an article up – Got Kids? How Do You Handle a Coronavirus Quarantine With Them? – with some suggestions on handling quarantine without going crazy.

We all love our children.  But despite that love, want to see parents cringe quickly?  Tell them that they are going to be stuck inside with their children for three months or more.  More than that, they cannot leave their home.

That thought in itself is incredibly overwhelming!  Add to it, getting ready to cut yourselves off from the world, it’s enough to devastate any parent.  How do you handle being cooped up with your kids for months on end?  Don’t stress, there are answers that don’t include 24/7 TV.

Let me start by saying, I’m a mom to five kids ages 8-17.  I don’t take the notion of being stuck inside my home for months with my kids lightly.  While younger kids will have an easier time staying home, older kids are going to feel the isolation much more.

So how do we handle a quarantine with kids?

When I was pregnant with my second set of twins, I was in the hospital every week for a non-stress test.  I had a friend who was pregnant at the same time.  She was hospitalized with placenta previa.  She wasn’t just hospitalized for a week or two.  No, she was hospitalized for more than TWELVE weeks.  And during that time, she was mostly confined to half of a small room.

How in the world did she keep herself sane being remanded to that small room for so long?  Some of her tips and tricks will work for us as we talk about how we’re going to help our kids (and ourselves) through what could be a long quarantine.

(1) Start Your Day Off Healthy

Make sure that you are starting your day off with a multi-vitamin, vitamin C, and a probiotic.  I would also suggest that you spend time in God’s word and prayer at the beginning of your day.  We love to sing together as a family, and this would be a good time to do that as well.

(2) Make sure your kids are learning.

Whether you homeschool or not, make sure that your kids are still learning.   Even if you send your kids to school, make sure that they are bringing their school books home with them as you get closer to keeping them home from school in a quarantine.   Or you could put together a school kit so that you will always have items to help your children learn if they can’t go to school.

For me, it’s really simple.  I have three children still in school.  And since we homeschool, they will all continue doing their school just like normal.  That will go a HUGE way toward helping things still feel normal.

What about older kids who have graduated and are working while still living at home?  Make sure that you have conversations with them now about when you are going to tell them that they can’t continue working for a while.  Have them talk to their employers NOW to manage expectations.

These older children should still be learning!  As I was going through totes today taking stock of everything for our quarantine, I found suture needles and other implements for doing stitches and practice skin.  Find a YouTube video on practice suturing and have them learn how to do sutures.  Or have you or your kids ever made bread or noodles from scratch?  Why not use some of that time to learn how to do a new skill?

(3) Make sure that you and your kids are moving daily.

If you have little kids, it’s obvious why they should do physical activity every day.  But what about older kids who aren’t bouncing off the walls?  Why should they (and you) exercise daily?

Studies have shown that mice were divided into three groups and all infected with the flu.  One group was sedentary.  One group jogged on a wheel for 20-30 minutes (modest activity for mice), and another group of mice was kept on a wheel for 2 1/2 – 3 hours.  Fifty percent of the sedentary group died.  SEVENTY percent of the mice who ran for 2 1/2-3 hours died!  Only 12 percent of the mice who were kept on the wheel for 20-30 minutes died.

Even if you aren’t going to expose yourself to the virus, keeping your body moving a modest amount can help your body better handle whatever is thrown at it.

Now, not everyone has a treadmill or a stationary bike, I get that.  But do you have Amazon Prime?  You can learn (or practice) yoga with your kids using this free video.  Don’t like yoga?  Here’s an exercise video called “Marching Low Impact.”  Or buy a digital copy of “Sweating to the Oldies” and sweat (and laugh and laugh) with your kids.

(4)  Play at least one game a day with your kids. 

This is a great time to spend time playing some of those games that you don’t play regularly either because you haven’t taken the time to learn them or because they take a little more time to play.

Do you have two decks of cards?  All you need is a Hoyle Card book, and you’ll have hours of fun at your hands.

Another thing that might fall into this category is putting together puzzles.

(5) Take a skill that you have to the next level.

Do you have a skill that you enjoy – like knitting?  Take it to the next level.  Maybe you could learn how to do cables or knit in multiple colors.  I’ve learned a bit about spinning, but don’t take a lot of time to actually practice it.  This would be the perfect time to take that skill to the next level.

How Do You Handle a Quarantine with Kids?(6) Schedule time for kids to talk with their friends using Facetime or Skype.

Only one of our kids has a cell phone.  And her cell phone is one for which we purchase minutes.  That means that calls aren’t a regular part of our kids lives.  Even if your kids have cell phones, talking with friends makes so much more of an impact when they can see them.

What if your kids could ‘virtually’ get together with their friends regularly during a quarantine?  They would be able share stories of what’s going on, what they are learning, and the time would pass so much faster.

(7) Enjoy movies and TV shows in moderation.

There are few things that make me feel more claustrophobic than sitting in front of a screen watching mindless TV too long.  I will often feel the need to get up and do something when I’ve got an Amazon or Netflix show going too much.  But that being said, sometimes, we just need to let our minds go to a more fun place and a movie or a TV show can do that for us.

(8) Most Importantly set a routine for your days.  How Do You Handle a Quarantine with Kids?

I say this last because I wanted to give you a lot of options for filling a routine.  Why do you need a routine?

When I was pregnant with my second set of twins, I was in the hospital on a weekly basis for non-stress tests.  I had a friend who was pregnant at the same time, but she was admitted to the hospital because of placenta previa and was at high risk for hemorrhaging.

The thing is that she wasn’t just in the hospital for one or two weeks, she was in the hospital for TWELVE weeks!  She wasn’t just confined to the limits of the hospital.  She was almost exclusively confined to her small hospital room, which she had to share with another person from time to time.

How did she keep from going crazy while she was confined to such a small space?!?

The most important thing that she did (by her own admission) was to set a routine for her day.  She would start it with time in God’s word and prayer.  Then she would spend around two hours scrapbooking.  After that, she would watch TV for about two hours.  Then she would work on a crocheting something for an hour or two.  Her kids and her husband would come and visit her for a couple of hours later in the day.  She would spend some time reading after that.  Then she would spend some time coloring in a coloring book.

Her routine kept her from going completely stir crazy.  So I want you to take 10-15 minutes and using activities from above or others that you come up with on your own to set a schedule for yourself and your children so that you have a routine for when you all are quarantined.

Will the routine change once you get into your quarantine?  Absolutely!  Some things will work.  Some things won’t work as you envisioned them, but you’ll be giving yourself a framework for your family.  Change it around, turn it on its head if need be.  But make sure that you actually have a routine so that everyone doesn’t go completely crazy!

What About You?

What other ideas do you have on how to keep your kids from going crazy during a quarantine?  How long do you anticipate that your family will need to be in quarantine?  Are you concerned about missing any really big events because of the quarantine?  I’d love to hear!  Share with us in the comments so that we can all be better prepared.

Together lets Love, Learn, Practice, and Overcome!

There are links in this post.  Some of the links may be affiliate links.  Some of the links may not be.

Dr. Gabriel Cousens’ COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus Protection and Prevention

The information below from Dr. Gabriel Cousens was going to presented as part of a health/essential oils presentation during the general assembly meeting tonight (which has been cancelled):

COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus
March 10th, 2020 UPDATE
Protection & Prevention
The COVID-19 Coronavirus question, on one level, is getting more complicated, as a certain amount of disinformation contradicting the basic data is emerging. Some say it’s an internet hoax, others say it’s not that serious, and others are saying it needs to be taken seriously. Even though some are saying, “No problem – It’s a minor threat”, it would be a major mistake not to take the proper hygiene and anti-viral nutritional protocol precautions and start the immune system building protocol as outlined in my Coronavirus Protection Protocol. There’s an old Sufi saying, “Love everybody (hoax or not), but tie up your camel (follow the prevention protocol).” This means we must act preventatively. My position as a former lieutenant commander in the Public Health Service is to give advice that will at least make people healthier (if I’m wrong) and save lives (if I’m right).
The present evidence strongly suggests that although there is some controversy, COVID-19 is a laboratory-made weaponized bio-terror virus. This virus is a manmade chimera, which is not actually normally found in nature.
It also turns out that the nations with the most advanced 5G rollouts also have the highest incidence of COVID-19 cases and mortality. There is clear statistical evidence of these 5G-exposed populations have the highest infection rates and death rates. It has been observed that those nations with the most powerful 5G networks are having the biggest outbreak of COVID-19 coronavirus to date. It is well-known that 5G not only is associated with higher rates of depression, paranoia, and anxiety, but also higher rates of weakened immunity, cancer, heart disease, and type-2 diabetes. There are over 10,000 studies showing that 4G is associated with decreased immune system function and chronic disease. Researchers are also claiming that 5G is at least 100 times more potent than 4G, so it’s no surprise that 5G would be associated with higher morbidity, vulnerability, and mortality from this weaponized coronavirus, COVID-19. Based on the available science, it’s reasonable to theorize that 5G could specifically activate the pathological potentialities of the virus. Although this is only probable speculation and has not been totally proven, it still brings us back to prevention with an additional point – the importance of fighting against 5G wherever they threaten to roll it out, for our sakes and the sake of humanity. It took 30 years to absolutely prove smoking causes cancer; we cannot afford to wait that long.
Research from the well-respected Lancet journal out of England shows that people should be quarantined at least 24 days, while others are saying it should be up to 1 month before being released back into the public area. Whether it is by ignorance or by malefic choice, we’re releasing people into the public after only 14 days of quarantine, if they are quarantined at all. It’s not clear who’s making these unscientific decisions but brings us back to the fact that it is our responsibility to take care of ourselves. The estimates are that if we really take care of ourselves, and/or with hospital treatment, the average fatality rate is between 2% to 3.4% depending on age and degree of wellness. Others, who have direct contact with Chinese sources are claiming it may be 10 times higher. A statement made by Anthony Fauci, MD, director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in an editorial published on 2/28/20 in the New England Journal of Medicine, suggested that COVID-19’s mortality rate is “considerably less than 1%”. The worst mortality rates, which increase with age and lack of proper health and hygiene, could be 15-18% fatality rate if over 70 years old; others say this approximate 15% mortality rate is for those over 80 years old; and still others say these higher rates apply to those as young as 60. Other scientific estimates of the mortality rate are: 8% for ages 70-79 and 3.6% for those ages 60-69. Mortality rates seem to increase with age. Kids under 10 seem to be quite safe with a projected fatality rate of .04%. The bottom line, again, is that we have the ability to protect ourselves from this, and there’s no need to go into fear, but we do need to pay attention.
As the statistics unfold, the mortality rate for COVID-19 appears to be roughly 30 times greater than the flu, although the rate of spread for the flu virus is greater. Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiology professor, has stated, “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.” He predicts that at least 40-70% of the US population will contract the virus. Most medical experts believe that while it can’t be contained that 98% of the population will do ok. COVID-19 is a lower respiratory illness, as opposed to the cold, which generally effects the upper respiratory system.
As of March 10th, 2020, an estimated 110,000 people worldwide have been affected by COVID-19, but others estimate at least 300,000 people in China alone have been infected. Of those infected, 81% have a mild infection, 14% have a moderate infection, and 5% become critical and need hospitalization. Two-thirds of those who have died are men. 80% are older than 60 years, and 75% had underlying chronic diseases, such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and high blood pressure.
In an attempt to gain some perspective, current statistics show that on a single day, such as on February 10th, 2020, 108 people in China died from COVID-19. Even if the numbers are tenfold higher for COVID-19, it brings it to 1,080 people dying in a day, which is still less than all other causes of death per day, except suicide.
·     1,660 Americans died of cancer.
·     2,150 Americans died from heart attacks.
·     123 Americans died from suicide.
·     3,287 Americans died from car accidents.
·     8,500 children around the world starved to death.
Obviously, the deaths per day from COVID-19 was significantly lower than other causes of death for that day. Also, the 1918 influenza pandemic had a mortality rate of around 5%, but enormous impact because it was highly contagious. The idea, of course, it not to become a statistic for any of these causes.
Compared to other lethal viruses, COVID-19 also has a lower mortality rate at this state of the pandemic. For example, according to WHO, the mortality rate for SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is approximately 10% and for MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), it is 30%. COVID-19’s mortality rate may be as low as 1%, but is probably, based on current statistics, at least 2-3.4%. As you can see, relatively speaking, on a global level, COVID-19 has a lower mortality rate than these other major viral infection threats, but generally a higher infectivity rate than all but the H1N1 epidemic of 2009/2010. The last SARS outbreak had more fatalities than the current COVID-19 currently has. Currently 110 countries have reported COVID-19 infections; second to the H1N1 outbreaks. In general, it seems, at this point, that the COVID-19 virus is less deadly than MERS or SARS, but neither have captured the headline attention that COVID-19 has received.

Continue reading “Dr. Gabriel Cousens’ COVID-19 Wuhan Coronavirus Protection and Prevention” →

Forward Observer: COVID-19 Update

Intelligence analysis and training company Forward Observer sent out an email this morning with some COVID-19 news/updates.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: Confirmed cases in the U.S. reached 1,257 — nearly a 24 percent increase from yesterday. Yesterday’s increase was 28 percent. The truth is that these numbers are way off. First, Chinese officials estimate that the U.S. had over 9,000 cases earlier this month, based on international flight data from Wuhan. Some American health officials are saying there’s likely to already be 20,000 cases nationwide.

A happy-medium estimate of 10,000 cases at a conservative 10 percent daily growth rate would put us over 3,000,000 cases in the next 60 days, by mid-May. While there may be some mitigating factors to exponential growth, we’re facing an incredibly disruptive future.

THE BAD NEWS: Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician for the U.S. Senate, warned senators on Tuesday that anywhere from 70 to 150 million Americans will contract COVID-19.

To put this into perspective, according to the American Hospital Association, there are 36 million hospital admissions in the U.S. each year. If 20 percent of all COVID-19 patients require hospitalization, then there could be 14-30 million extra hospital admissions. Now, China reports that about 15 percent of patients require hospitalization, but Italy says that 50 percent of COVID-19 patients have required hospitalization! If we see anywhere near that range, there’s simply not going to be enough room or staff to treat that many people.

THE GOOD NEWS: The University of Maryland School of Medicine announced that the spread of COVID-19 should ease this year as temperatures rise. That’s the first medical institution I’ve seen backing that theory. Officials warned, however, that more northerly latitudes could continue to see outbreaks into summer.

AND THEN: That pretty much confirms that COVID-19 will be back in the fall for another round of outbreaks.

U.S.: President Trump announced a series of policy steps he’s taking to stop the spread of COVID-19. By far, the most disruptive policy is that travel from most European countries will effectively end for 30 days starting on Friday. American citizens and permanent residents will be exempt.

Boeing leads the pack of U.S.-based corporations tapping credit lines, saying they’ll take out a $13.8 billion loan as insurance against a cash flow crunch. Hilton Hotels is in for $1.75 billion. Meanwhile, San Francisco is reporting hotel revenue dropping by 46 percent, 35 percent in Seattle, and 20 percent in New York. With spring break upon us and summer break right around the corner, it’s going to be a tough and sparse few months for the tourism industry. Port activity was also down 20 percent on the West Coast for the month of February. (Although, by looking at the charts, they’re used to it: they saw worse in previous years during the height of the trade war.)

ECONOMIC WARNING: BlackRock, the nation’s largest asset manager with $7 trillion AUM, advised clients that they don’t see the COVID-19 pandemic “as an [economic] expansion-ending event” — just as long as an effective federal response is enacted. Still, they see “a sharp and deep economic slowdown in the near term.” (Analyst Comment: This outlook underscores their faith that massive fiscal stimulus and favorable monetary conditions can blunt any effects leading to a 2008-esque meltdown. Yeah, my fingers are crossed, too.)

Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin advised clients that the 11-year bull market run is over, and painted a bleak picture of economic reality: “Supply chains have been disrupted and final demand has declined for many industries. Travel is contracting sharply as both individuals and businesses restrict movement. Airlines, hotels, cruises, and casinos report plunging demand, lower occupancy, and cancellations. Employees are being furloughed.”

JPMorgan Chase is alerting its clients that “a market sell-off of this magnitude implied a 65-75% chance of recession in the next year,” but a “timely, strong counter-policy response” and “a peak of COVID-19” in the coming weeks should prove the market drop an overreaction. (AC: JPMorgan Chase is expecting a peak in the coming weeks, which is at odds with what epidemiologists are saying when they expect a continuation for months.)

SHORTAGES: Coca-Cola warned of potential shortages of Diet Coke, due to supplier disruption. (The next panic buy?) Consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble is warning of coming shortages, as well, for the same reason. According to one economist, the “worst impact for businesses [will] come in April and May.” (AC: At some point, accusations of “panic buying” will no longer be sufficient to explain empty shelves, and the reality of shortages will set in. Based on what I’m hearing from China, there will be a period of weeks where shortages will persist. Those shortages could be sporadic or regional, based on where your local retailers source their goods. Regardless: it’s coming.) //END

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BFHD: Social Distancing for High Risk Populations

The Benton Franklin Health District has posted this message on Social Distancing for High Risk Populations in light of the coronavirus outbreak in Washington state.

Benton-Franklin Health District (BFHD) is working tirelessly to limit the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in our community. At this time, we have no presumed or confirmed cases. We know that people are worried about this new illness. Due to the novelty of the disease, information on which to make recommendations is changing rapidly.

Prevention strategies can make a large impact in slowing the increase in cases in the short run and ultimately reducing the total number of cases.

Our recommendations are based on our best understanding of this new disease and with guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Washington State Department of Health, and our colleagues at other local health agencies.

We know that COVID-19 spreads among close contacts, and that reducing close contact with others can help reduce the spread of this disease. Social Distancing is a prevention strategy used for many other illnesses.

For social distancing to be most effective, it must be combined with other illness prevention steps.

  • Wash your hands with soap and water frequently, especially after having physical contact with others, being in public places or health care facilities, when leaving work or school and upon returning home.
  • Stay home when you are sick. It is crucial that those who are ill with fever or symptoms like coughing or shortness of breath stay home and away from others.
  • Stay away from other sick people.
  • If someone else at work is sick with a cough or cold, make this known to someone in charge so that person can be asked to leave.
  • Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue, throw it away, and then wash your hands.
  • Clean frequently touched objects and surfaces with a disinfectant.

Gatherings: BFHD is recommending additional social distancing for people at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19. If your event has an intended audience of those that would be considered higher risk, we recommend cancellation of those events.

Those at higher risk include people who:

  • are over 60 years of age
  • have an underlying medical condition, like heart disease, lung disease or diabetes
  • have weakened immune systems
  • are pregnant

If you have questions about whether you or your child is at higher risk from COVID-19, ask your health care provider.

For events where the intended audience is not higher risk, BFHD is advising organizations to follow DOH’s Recommendations for Events and Public Gatherings. Currently, our Health Officer has determined our community is at moderate risk – Threshold 2.

Employers: BFHD is encouraging workplaces and businesses to provide options for their higher risk employees to work from home if possible. If they cannot work from home, employees at higher should minimize their interaction with large groups of people.

Faith Community: BFHD is recommending that our faith community partners practice social distancing during services. Refrain from hugs, handshakes, and any common vessel usage.

What’s Next: BFHD will make decisions about future measures based on active surveillance of all respiratory illness in our community. Surveillance includes monitoring community level data such as emergency department volumes, school absentee rates, respiratory illness rates in long-term care facilities, and data from Washington State’s syndromic surveillance portal.

 

Empty Shelves Do Not Mean “Panic Buying”

I was thinking that I was going to have to write a post like this myself today, but luckily I ran across this letter to the editor at Inforum from NDSU professor of Emergency Management Dr. Carol Cwiak. I can’t count the number of articles decrying the “panic buying” going on ahead of possible COVID-19 quarantines, telling people to calm down – that they only need a sparse few things. Some government officials have been as foolish and uninformed as to say that people only need 2-3 days of supplies for a disaster, in spite of the fact that FEMA and state emergency management officials have been telling people for years now that two weeks or more are necessary, and the fact that coronavirus quarantines are a minimum of two weeks. What we’re seeing in stores is not panic; Black Friday sales in this country have more in common with panic buying than the calm, but widespread, buying we’re seeing.

There have been many media stories and social media posts over the past couple of weeks about consumers’ shopping behaviors related to the Coronavirus (COVID-19). These stories and posts inevitably feature photos of empty store shelves and shoppers with carts filled with supplies such as water, paper products, cleaning supplies and medication. In these stories and posts, the shopper’s behavior has been characterized as “panic” or “hoarding” related to fears about COVID-19. This is a mischaracterization of what is happening, and the use of these terms is not helpful.

These behaviors are more appropriately framed from a preparedness perspective. Typically, guidance from public officials about citizen preparedness is not widely followed, often to citizens’ detriment. Despite valiant preparedness efforts by community leaders over the years, citizens, on the whole, have not historically been great at recognizing and taking ownership over their own risks in the public health and emergency management space.

In the instance of COVID-19, there seems to be an uptick regarding citizen preparedness. There has been consistent messaging surrounding citizen preparedness about the need for households to have food and water supplies for a minimum of 14 days and prescription medicine supplies for at least 30 days; and, apparently people are listening. To public health and emergency management professionals who have been preaching citizen preparedness for years (myself included), this is an encouraging step in the right direction. As for the reasons regarding why citizens are more actively owning their own risk in this situation as opposed to other situations in which they have not adequately prepared, we must look at the confluence of a number of factors.

First, we have become a just-in-time society that affords us the luxury of ordering things online that can be delivered in a period of hours. There is no need to shop for a few weeks at a time when you can think about what you want to make for dinner in the morning and have the groceries delivered in the afternoon. And if you are ordering in from a local restaurant, the process is further simplified by services that will deliver just about everything right to your door in under an hour. Retailers have aligned their behavior with consumers’ behavior and stock shelves and maintain inventory based on the society’s migration to just-in-time service.

Second, we live in an increasingly interdependent and interconnected society served by a complex global supply chain that is vulnerable to disruption. COVID-19 is already disrupting the global supply chain and the U.S. is beginning to feel that disruption. There has already been recognition on the part of some major retailers that they will experience shortages on a variety of items sought by consumers.

Third, as COVID-19 continues its spread at the community level, the workforce will be impacted by employee illness, employee absence due to caretaking of ill family members, employee absence due to lack of child care, and employer efforts to control the spread of the disease (e.g., social distancing, social isolation, healthy workplace policies, etc.). Workforce shortages and challenges will potentially affect both the way businesses deliver goods and services and their ability to deliver at current levels.

Fourth, due to the global nature of this public health event, the option to receive help from other unaffected communities is greatly diminished. While some communities will be hit harder than others with impacts from the virus, all communities will be impacted. This is different than most events citizens are asked to prepare for; in this event, there will not be the same level of capacity to help the un- or under-prepared.

Fifth, there is an increased potential for death with COVID-19 and health care systems will be taxed by both additional patients and workforce reductions. The strain on health care systems will challenge citizens’ ability to access just-in-time health care services.

These factors taken together illustrate some of the potential reasons citizens may view these risks as more salient and important to prepare for than other, more common calls for citizen preparedness. Hence, preparations taken by citizens to have the suggested food, water and medicine supply to prepare their households consistent with preparedness messaging from local, state and national government officials is not hoarding or being done in a state of panic. These are rational efforts by citizens who understand the risk and are taking seriously their role in managing it.

KNDU: Prosser Suspends City Programs While Sanitizing Community Center

From KNDU, City of Prosser suspends City programs while it works to sanitize community center because of potential coronavirus exposure.

The City of Prosser has decided to suspend City programs because of a possible exposure to the coronavirus.

On Monday, March 9, the City received information there was a sight chance that a person at the Community Center, located at 1231 Dudley Ave., could have been exposed to COVID-19. According to a news release, the potential exposure comes from a possible transference from a site outside Benton County via a patron of the facility.

According to City Officials, the person who may have been exposed has no symptoms at this time.

Working with the Benton-Franklin Health Department the City of Prosser decided to suspend City programs while it works to sanitize the facility. This is a precautionary measure only, taken to ensure the safety of all citizens. The City has reached out to its facility partners and advised them of the situation and allowed them to determine whether to continue or suspend their programs based on the level of risk.

According to the city, The Senior Citizens Club has posted updates on their program activities on their Facebook page. Meals on Wheels is still operating and will be providing meals. Please check the Prosser Meals on Wheels Facebook page for more information and updates.

The City of Prosser expects to resume programs at the Community Center next week. “We want to stress that this is simply a precaution and thank you for your patience” Steve Zetz, Community Development Director.

Organic Prepper: China’s Control of Pharmaceuticals

In this article from The Organic Prepper, Daisy Luther discusses China’s corner on the pharmaceutical market – 80% of pharmaceutical ingredients are made in China – and recent threats (or merely boasts?) that China would or could cut off drug exports to the US.

As China allegedly conquers the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak that began in Wuhan, it appears that they’re right back to considering the United States an enemy. On Xiahuanet, the Communist Party news outlet, they threatened to withhold all medical exports to the US, at the same asking for an “apology” from the US and “gratitude” from the rest of the world.

This comes at the most crucial point of an outbreak that originated in their own country.

Why is China angry with the US?

Xinhuanet is the biggest news agency in China, and very “influential.” The outlet is the official state-run press agency, so anything found on the website is straight from the Chinese government. An article titled, “The World Should Thank China,” which was published on March 4, covered the outbreak of Covid-19 in the United States.

The article suggests that the US’s data is suspicious because all cases of coronavirus must be confirmed by the CDC. (I can’t disagree with them that our numbers are questionable.) It shows a photograph of people praying in the White House to underline how “nervous” President Trump is about the virus. (This photo was actually of a meeting that the Vice President had about the rapidly spreading virus, as opposed to the President.)

Xinhuanet goes on to tout the control they have taken over the outbreak, saying that Trump admires their handling of the crisis and that his “remarks came from the bottom of his heart.”

At the same time, Xinhuanet criticized the US’s perceived mistreatment of China, citing the travel ban and the evacuation of American citizens from Wuhan, the heart of the outbreak. This caused, according to Xinhuanet, other countries to also “isolate” China from the rest of the world, causing them economic harm.

A translated version of the article says:

These practices in the United States are very unkind. They can be described as falling into the ground and killing people while they are ill. (source)

And now, if it is to be believed that China has contained the outbreak and they’re back to business as usual, they may want to exact some vengeance for this “unkindness.” (And of course, this remains the question – do they even currently possess the capability to manufacture these medical products or is this all a way to save face because their workforce is decimated and the virus is actually not contained at all?)

How did China threaten the US?

In the article, China suggests that they could easily get even with the United States for their perceived mistreatment of China during the outbreak by cutting off medical supplies while we are in the midst of our own outbreak.

If China retaliates against the United States at this time, in addition to announcing a travel ban on the United States, it will also announce strategic control over medical products and ban exports to the United States. Then the United States will be caught in the ocean of new crown viruses.

According to the US CDC officials, most masks in the United States are made in China and imported from China. If China bans the export of masks to the United States, the United States will fall into the mask shortage, and the most basic measures to prevent the new crown virus are Can’t do it.

Also according to the US CDC officials, most of the drugs in the United States are imported, and some drugs are imported from Europe. However, Europe also places the production base of these drugs in China, so more than 90% of the US imported drugs are Related to China. The implication is that at this time, as long as China announces that its drugs are as domestic as possible and banned exports, the United States will fall into the hell of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. (source)

In the next paragraph, Xinhuanet basically says, “Nah, don’t worry. We are filled with love.”

However, there is a great love in the world. The Chinese people and the Chinese government have never done so. They have not insulted the United States, nor have they banned the export of masks and medicines to the United States. (source)

Then the article suggests that the United States, if not the entire world, owes China an apology due to our media coverage of the outbreak in Wuhan and comments made about the outbreak by government officials like  Secretary of Commerce Rose, US Secretary of State Pompeo, and US White House Economic Adviser Navarro. They say these officials “gloated” about the coronavirus outbreak and saw it as an opportunity to pull US manufacturing out of China…

Click here to read the entire article at The Organic Prepper.

What’s Happening in Lombardy from an ICU Doctor

Dr. Daniele Macchini of Bergamo, Italy posted an update on Facebook on how conditions are in the hospitals there. It was translated into English and posted on twitter. (h/t Aesop) There are also reports that retired doctors have been asked to come back to work, and nursing students have been graduated early in order to deal with the health system crisis.

“After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt that silence was not responsible. I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I shudder. I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly “emptied”, elective activitieswere interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible. All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such ferocity. I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab. When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I’ve seen what’s happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say the least. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace. The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia. Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is”temporarily” put in crisis, the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us. Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing. Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be hospitalized. Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it’s too late… Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before. The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn’t know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask “what can I do for you now?” Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can’t save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny. There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols. Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can’t go to the theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate. We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy.”           – Dr. Daniele Macchini.

“I finish by saying that I really don’t understand this war on panic. The only reason I see is mask shortages, but there’s no mask on sale anymore. We don’t have a lot of studies, but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this sort?”

Dr. Luks on Covid-19 Personal Risk vs Systemic Risk

The following is a post from orthopedic surgeon Dr. Howard Luks, MD, on Facebook about the difference between the personal risks of the novel coronavirus and the looming systemic risk. Most people have a pretty low personal risk to worry about the virus, but the systemic risk of an overwhelmed health care system is danger in itself.

COVID-19 Update: 3/8/20; 6AM

Confusion and messaging…. Personal v Systemic Risk:

Many people have had trouble grasping the issues we have covered as they try to make sense of it in the context of what they see on TV or read in print media.

Much of what the experts have been discussing is in fact accurate. Your “personal” risk remains very low. The risk to your children’s health is very low. So, their messaging is accurate… but incomplete. The message should be clear… your personal risk is low… period. No one is debating that. The issue that you’re not reading about is “systemic risk”.
The AHA or American Hospital Association is starting to discuss the systems side … see the second picture below for their estimates.

Personal risk aside, the issue that we need to confront, and soon, is the concept of systemic risk. I am referring to the healthcare system. Let’s dive into this again.
An example … Here are some numbers out of Italy:

10 % Lombardy doctors are infected.
At least 1060 patients are self-isolating at home
At least 2394 are hospitalized
At least 462 are in intensive care
197 have died.

The Italian Society of Intensive Therapy declared today: “It might be necessary to limit the age of people who can enter intensive therapy to preserve resources for those having more chances of surviving”. In other words, people who are more at risk will be left to die.

THIS IS WHAT SYSTEMIC RISK LOOKS LIKE.

~ Doctors/nurses getting sick: fewer to care for high numbers of patients.
~ 462 in an ICU…. and we are still very early in the spread of the infection stage. Italy will shut down large cities soon… but it will be too late. How many ICU beds do you think we have available in your community?
~ 2400 hospitalized. In the US, on average, hospitals run 65% full. In many regions of the country, mine included, that number is far higher.
~ Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 8th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We just do not have the ability to test people. Period.
~ Given an R0 of 2( meaning that one person infects two people), and a doubling time of 6 days (one infection becomes two, two becomes 4, etc)
~ That means we’re looking at about 1 Million US cases by the end of April, 2 Million by ~May 5, 4 Million by ~May 11, and so on.
~ yes… math is wonky. and exponential math even more so.

Here are the current models from the AHA: Assumptions are actually conservative. Fatality rate assumption only 0.5%, etc. If that rate rises due to strained resources ….

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admits
480,000 deaths

Compare that to the numbers for the flu ..

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths

This is NOT the flu. Again… yes, your personal risk is low. However, the systemic risk to our healthcare system is huge. So we can change this trajectory… keep reading.

Assume there are~ 1 Million hospital beds in the US, therefore ~ 300,000 hospital beds (not ICU beds) are available in the US (assuming 65% of capacity)
~ It does not take long before our beds are full, and our resources are under strain.

To recap… your personal risk IS currently very low. If you are a young healthy adult your risk of dying from COVID-19 is lower than your risk of driving around today. That risk increases in people with diabetes and hypertension. Men are at slightly higher risk than women, and people over 80 have the greatest risk of dying (~15%).

So the messaging that you are viewing or reading is in fact accurate. Your personal risk is low. No need to panic.

Hospitals are not full right now… hospital resources are available to you. Only a few physicians, nurse, and health care workers are sick. So if you become infected now you will likely do fine.

What happens in a month when 2 Million people may be infected? Our healthcare system may not be able to offer the same level of care to those who need it. Therein lies the risk. This is systemic risk. This is why we need to stretch and bang down the “epidemic curve” or the rate of spread. The healthcare system CAN deal with many sick people arriving over a longer period of time. So we need to stretch the time course out. See the first picture below.

Why we should close schools and dramatically limit social contact via gatherings, events and conferences. It boils down to math… and the need to flatten the epidemic curve.

This is a great article that goes into the numbers and models with respect to lives saved by closing schools, working from home, cancelling gatherings, etc. It is well worth the 5 minutes it takes to read. The third picture below shows the detailed math of how closing schools etc will save lives.

https://www.linkedin.com/…/whats-your-risk-dying-covid-19…/…

So if your school district closes… don’t get on their case. It’s in the best interest of community as a whole. The risk to your child’s health in all of this is negligible. This is not a personal risk issue! I’m watching my own town’s facebook page explode with fear, personal attacks and political rants. It’s a shame. This is not a time for political wrangling. This is the time to act to keep our healthcare system running and our healthcare workforce well to be able to care for you when you or a family member becomes ill.

Yes, hand washing is critical … but it’s time to consider what else we can do to slow the spread. For your communities sake.
– we shouldn’t be going to indoor tournaments
– we shouldn’t be going to concerts
-conferences should be cancelled
– etc
Again… not because your individual risk is high… but because we need to slow the spread to minimize the risk of a systems failure.

For those interested in a deeper dive into the mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID and how it will affect our resources you can read this thread … https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

Beauty Beyond Bones: What If We Were as Fervent About the Rest of Life as COVID19?

Caralyn at Beauty Beyond Bones shares a few thoughts on the coronavirus frenzy and how wonderful it would it would be if people attacked the rest of their lives with the same fervor – Coronavirus or Apocalypse?

Somebody call Will Smith because thanks to the Coronavirus, it’s like a scene from an apocalyptic blockbuster out here in these streets.

Honestly – New York City is turning into a chaotic nightmare.

People are walking around in masks, I can’t tell you the number of mass emails I’ve gotten instructing me to wash my hands (you’re breaking some new ground there, Copernicus), and everyone on the subway is actively sizing people up, trying to determine if they’re riding with Patient Zero.

And apparently, for good reason. You know it’s bad when my father — King of not-freaking out/calm-cool-&-collected/never-over-reacter — sends me a Twitter thread about the potential catastrophic impact COVID-19 could have if there’s an actual outbreak.

Sometimes, I think there’s more fear-mongering than facts circulating in the media around things like this, but respecting my dad’s concern…I caved and heeded his advice.

I went to 4 different Walgreens yesterday to buy my doomsday kit: cleaning supplies, toilet paper, bottled water, hand sanitizer, etc. – and I kid you not — all four stores were completely sold out of – not only cleaning products – but also hand sanitizer and antibacterial soap!! We’re talking empty shelves!

Image: ABC

And – thanks to the law of supply and demand – I ended up paying a whopping $24 on Amazon for ONE canister of Lysol disinfectant wipes.

If I wasn’t coughing before, I certainly did after that price tag.

The country is freaking out.

And the fervor with which people are preparing for a potential doomsday is unprecedented. It’s like Y2K all over again. People are stock piling toilet paper and paper face masks. I met a guy at a party last night who was side-hustling those blue paper masks for $25 bucks a pop!!

It’s a frenzy. And it’s damn impressive, to be honest.

And, sitting back, watching this whole thing unfold, I couldn’t help but think to myself — what would happen if we were attack other areas of our lives with this same intensity?

People are snatching up anything “antibacterial” like their life depended on it. Bleach? Lay it on me. Antimicrobial? Here, take my first born.

There is a desperation. A determination. A devotion. Granted, it’s driven by self-interest.

But what would happen, if we were to, say, attack recovery with that same life-or-death intensity?

How would it be if we were to pursue our relationship with God with that same urgency? To save our souls, with the same tanacity as fighting to save our lives?

Or what if we were to take that frenzied energy and put it towards helping other people, loving our friends, pursuing goals and dreams, working to save the environment – or the unborn?

There’s so much complacency these days – so much luke-warmness that, quite frankly, it’s refreshing to see that, as a society, we have it in us to actually care about something. That we can set aside our differences and rally together to defeat a collective threat.

Pity, that it took the coronavirus to bring that out of us.

I pray that this corona virus be contained. It breaks my heart to see what’s happening overseas, and to hear the death toll continues to rise.

I hope that with the arrival of spring, we can kick this virus, and move forward to days where the threat of a hand sanitizer barter system isn’t on the brink of reality.

Because in addition to ruthlessness in the CVS aisles, COVID-19 has also brought out the absolute worst in people: Despicable acts racism and overt prejudice against our brothers and sisters from China are sadly a reality, and people are letting fear cloud their judgement and influence their words and actions.

Image: Forbes

It’s gross and completely unacceptable.

So, I think we all need to take a collective deep breath. Act with common sense — yes, wash our hands — Act with prudence when it comes to staying healthy.

But try to channel this panicked energy into positive intensity towards things that also matter.

Starting with kindness. How about that.

FEE: Coronavirus May Lead to “Mass Homeschooling”

From the Foundation for Economic Education comes this article on how the coronavirus pandemic could lead to more homeschooling because of school closures.

s fears of coronavirus mount around the globe, cities and countries are taking action to prevent the new respiratory virus strain from spreading. While the virus has not yet hit hard in the United States, government officials and health agencies have enacted response plans, corporations are halting travel abroad, and education leaders are grappling with what a widespread domestic outbreak of the virus could mean for schoolchildren.

In countries where the virus is active, schools have been shut down and children are at home, learning alongside their parents or through online education portals. The New York Times reports that US schools have been prompted this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to prepare for a coronavirus epidemic that could shutter schools and require alternate forms of teaching and learning outside the conventional classroom. According to Kevin Carey of the New America think tank, who spoke to the Times, coronavirus in the US could lead to “a vast unplanned experiment in mass home-schooling.”

It’s unfortunate that it takes a viral epidemic to spotlight the many alternatives to conventional K-12 schooling.

Indeed, in Hong Kong this is already occurring. The coronavirus outbreak led to orders for schools to be shut down in the city for two months, affecting 800,000 students. An article this week in The Wall Street Journal declares that “coronavirus prompts a whole city to try home schooling,” noting that in Hong Kong many children are completing lessons virtually through online learning platforms or receiving live instruction from teachers through Google Hangouts or similar digital tools.

It’s unfortunate that it takes a viral epidemic to spotlight the many alternatives to conventional K-12 schooling. Not only is homeschooling widely popular in the US, educating approximately two million children nationwide, but other schooling alternatives, such as virtual learning, microschooling, and hybrid homeschooling continue to sprout.

Interest in online learning options is sure to increase as the coronavirus spreads, but other in-person schooling alternatives are also likely to gain notoriety.

Virtual learning programs such as the Florida Virtual School, founded in 1997 as the nation’s first fully online public high school, and K12, Inc., one of the largest providers of virtual schooling, enable young people to take a complete course load and earn a high school diploma without sitting in a traditional classroom environment. Supplementary online programs, such as Khan Academy and Outschool, expand learning options and allow young people to dig deeper into topics that interest them or those in which they may need some additional help.

Interest in online learning options is sure to increase as the coronavirus spreads, but other in-person schooling alternatives are also likely to gain notoriety. Microschools, for example, are small, home-based, multi-age learning environments that act like a one-room schoolhouse, typically with no more than 8 to 12 students at a time. Prenda is a fast-growing network of these branded, in-home microschools, with more than 80 schools in Arizona alone serving some 550 students, and plans to expand out-of-state.

Like microschools, hybrid homeschooling programs and small, community-based classes for homeschoolers are also gaining popularity and may be swept into the limelight if conventional schools are forced to temporarily close. Operating with small, age-mixed groups of children, these hybrid models and classes offer an alternative to institutional schooling, avoiding large classrooms and crowded buildings. I have recently launched a marketplace platform, Unschool.school, that connects educators, parents, and learners to these homeschooling models and out-of-school learning experiences, fostering small group, in-person interactions in local community spaces, such as art studios, makerspaces, and spare dining rooms.

These emerging learning options outside of traditional schooling show not only that “mass homeschooling” is possible but also that it may be highly desirable. Personalized learning, small group interactions that build community and connection, and education without the coercion inherent in standard schooling are beneficial whether or not a pending epidemic is what exposes families to these education possibilities. Mass homeschooling may be just the cure we need.

Forward Observer: A Brief Q&A on COVID-19 Preparations

Chief intelligence analyst Sam Culper at Forward Observer posts a brief Q&A on coronavirus issues/preparation.

Hey Gang – I’m getting enough questions that it’s more economical for me to write a blog post rather than trying to answer them individually.

Question: Is COVID-19 that big of a threat?

Answer: For the average American, the greater risk is actually the financial and economic impact of COVID-19.

I’m not concerned about catching COVID-19, as 80 percent of cases are mild. The older you are and the worse shape you’re in, the more you should be concerned.

If you’re reasonably healthy, then you have less to worry about.

I’m way more concerned about impacts to the economy.

 

Q: On “panic buying” — is it prudent to go buy a month’s worth of supplies if I don’t already have them?

A: Yes, I believe that’s prudent. Here’s why:

Health experts, risk management firms, and financial asset managers are warning that COVID-19 outbreaks will likely last for months.

– Morgan Stanley advised clients that economic disruption could last into Q3, which is July to September.

– Supplier delivery times have started to tick up, which is bad news for just-in-time inventory. China is struggling to resume production, which will be self-evident in the coming weeks.

– Goldman Sachs is warning of “severe” global supply shortages if China can’t get back to normal by the end of the month. Meanwhile, production facilities in China’s coastal regions are operating at 70-80 percent capacity, but many factories are still experiencing labor shortages.

– Prominent hedge fund and asset managers have warned about coming supply and demand shocks.

– The Federal Reserve made an emergency cut to interest rates this week, and the futures markets are pricing in another rate cut this month. What exactly is the Fed trying to get ahead of?

There’s no need to panic and the world isn’t ending. In light of the data, however, it’s prudent to get what you need soon or face the risk of shortages later.

As we’ve seen in Washington, Arizona, California, and other states that experience community outbreaks, there will be more panic buying. There will be more lines at Costco, more purchase limits, and more empty shelves.

As one friend put it, buying things today is preparing for the panic to come, not “panic buying.” Preparing now for anywhere between two to four weeks is prudent.

 

Q: Will the U.S. be as hard hit as China has been?

A: Right now, that looks unlikely in the near term. The fact is that no one knows just how bad this will get. I’m confident in saying that conditions will get much worse before they get better.

Chinese officials initially ignored the outbreaks, which exacerbated the problem.

You may have seen news that major corporations like Google, Microsoft, Goldman Sachs, Boeing, and others are cancelling events. Expect a lot more of that.

Domestic air travel ticketing is down 20 percent through May. Expect more disruption to the travel and tourism industry. (In fact, airline executives met with Vice President Pence this week to discuss air travel during the COVID-19 epidemic.)

We have a far better healthcare system than China does, but that doesn’t mean we’re immune to overcrowded and understaffed medical facilities. According to epidemiologists, one bad community outbreak could quickly overwhelm local or regional medical infrastructure.

 

Q: But, but, but more people die from common influenza.

A: That’s not a question, but you’re right.

We expect influenza every year. Influenza has a season. We currently don’t know how long COVID-19 outbreaks will last, nor do we fully understand the extent of the economic or psychological impacts.

I’m reading through these earnings guidance calls from Fortune 500 companies and they don’t know how to estimate the financial impact of COVID-19 for Q2 of this year. There’s simply too much uncertainty.

Professional number crunchers who can accurately forecast how much their company will earn in the next quarter (April-June) are shrugging when asked about the impact. If they don’t know, then certainly no one else does.

As far as I can tell, health officials have said this will last for months, and some have said it will last into next year. That’s a long time for the type of disruption we’re already starting to see.

I’ve seen some people say that warmer weather will kill COVID-19. I look at Australia, which is coming out of summer and heading into fall, and they’re accumulating more COVID-19 cases. It’s warmer there than it is here, and I’m in Texas.

The bottom line in all of this is that authorities are trying to keep the lid on panic.

The absolute best ways to avoid panic is to have realistic expectations of the future so you’re not surprised, and to be prepared.

I can’t help you with your day to day preparations, but I CAN HELP YOU gain a better perspective on the future.

I can help you to understand what’s more likely and less likely to happen. I can provide you with intelligence that reduces your uncertainty about the future.

Try me out: https://members.forwardobserver.com…

 

The Medic Shack: COVID-19

Chuck at The Medic Shack shares his thoughts and preparations for the COVID-19 virus sweeping the world.

The Coronavirus, Covid-19 is rampaging around the country. People are dying in America.

Okay. Got your attention now? The above statement is true. It is NOT as bad as it sounds. As of 3-4-2020 11 people have died from Covid-19.  But its the delivery of the sentence that makes it menacing.

The Covid 19 virus is spreading. We are having community acquired illnesses happening We have confirmed deaths in the US from it. We have people panicking over it. People are scared and are grasping at straws of hope from some real unsavory news sources. I do not have the answers people want. Hell I’m no doctor nor epidemiologist. What I am, is a person who has seen disease break out in the 3rd world and here in the US. That has treated people as a US Army Medic, Paramedic and instructor.

So lets get to what we do know.

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that can cause a range of symptoms including a runny nose, cough, sore throat and fever. Some are mild, such as the common cold, while others are more likely to lead to pneumonia. They’re usually spread through direct contact with an infected person. Other well-known coronaviruses include SARS and MERS

COVID-19 is similar to other respiratory illnesses and symptoms include a fever, dry cough, sore throat and headache. There may also be aches and pains, fatigue and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhea.

While most cases are mild, some individuals may experience more severe symptoms such as shortness of breath and difficulty breathing, and may experience pneumonia in both lungs. Those with health issues or underlying conditions may also have a harder time recovering. The incubation period is still up in the air. From as little as 2 days to as much as 21. The “happy” medium is about 14 days.

It may 14 days or longer after exposure for symptoms to appear. It also appears to be contagious during the incubation period.

What’s the difference between a cold, a flu and COVID-19?

All three are respiratory illnesses but each is caused by a different virus. The cold is caused by the rhinovirus, the flu is caused by the influenza virus, and COVID-19 is caused by the novel 2019 coronavirus. All three can lead to pneumonia if complicated by other health issues or underlying conditions

The cold, flu and COVID-19 are all spread the same way, from close person-to-person interaction, though the cold and COVID-19 can also spread through airborne particles.

COVID-19 like a bad cold and the flu does it’s worse damage on those that have co-morbidity COPD, Uncontrolled Diabetes. Hypertension. Weakened immune system, overweight with general poor health. This is targeted to some dear friends I know and love. Overworked. Over stressed. Not caring for themselves. Not enough sleep. When you get weakened by health or life, your immune system is taxed.

If you add in ANY co morbidity to that you are at a high risk of getting ANY VIRUS.

Going back to one of my favorite movies, Pop Quiz hot shot You walk into a crowded grocery store. A shopper has coronavirus. What puts you most at risk of getting infected by that person? WHAT DO YOU DO???

Experts agree they have a great deal to learn, but four factors likely play some role: how close you get; how long you are near the person; whether that person projects viral droplets on you; and how much you touch your face. Also age and health are huge factors.

A virus by itself is immobile. It can not move on its own and it is to small to be moved by wind. It needs to catch a lift. A droplet of moisture, Dust. Dander from pets or people. That is why the masks come into play. No mask outside of a Level 3 or 4 suit from Fort Meade can stop a virus. They are on the average .1 to .17 microns. The best N95 can stop only to .3 microns Your surgical mask can stop particles of about 5 microns in size. N95s are in very short supply.

So short that hospitals are having a bit of a tough time to get them. And what new masks come off the line are not heading to Amazon or Home Depot. They are heading to the CDC and your health care facilities. Unless you read our article on the N95 mask, be aware that most people do not know how to properly seal one. N95 HEPA Mask

Am I worried?

To say I am not concerned about this bug would be a lie. But also I am not bouncing like a fork dropped in a garbage disposal. It is something to keep a very close eye on. Today 4 March 2020, CNBC released this headline

Chinese scientists identify two strains of the coronavirus, indicating it’s already mutated at least once.

The headline is eye catching. But when you read into it, it is not as inflammatory as it seems. But it does raise some questions in my tin foil hat covered mind.

What can we do to protect ourselves?

  • Wash your hands often with soap and water.
  • Cover your mouth and nose with your elbow or a tissue when you cough or sneeze.
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth if your hands aren’t clean.
  • Avoid close contact with anyone who is sick.
  • Clean surfaces you often touch.
  • Stay home from work, school and public areas if you’re sick.

A lot of people have been comparing this to the flu. With out getting all into Med Speak, they are similar that they are viruses. But it ends there. Look at it this way/ Both a Malamute and a Husky are dogs. They come from the same climate. The look a bit alike. After that they are totally different. They replicate in a similar manner, but the attack the body in the same manner. The Covid-19 can live for a few hours on most surfaces., It is THOUGHT not CONFIRMED that it can last up to a few days under ideal conditions.

Disinfection.

This is where the chink in the armor of COVID-19 shows. Almost any disinfectant, that is applied according to its directions, will kill it. The old Standby of bleach will do it. For surfaces that can’t take bleaching Lysol. We have also found the old fashioned concentrate Lysol in the brown bottle. That stuff will kill ANYTHING!

For those that can’t take the harsh chemicals, embrace your hippy self!

For surface disinfection Essential oil such as Lemongrass, Cinnamon, Clove, Oregano, and Thyme are good choices for their reported antiviral properties . My wife likes to make her own consisting of 10 drops lemongrass oil, 10 drops of tea tree 10 drops peppermint. 4 ounces of 100 proof vodka and 2 ounces of Colloidal Silver. She places this in a sprayer and uses it to spray it on surfaces. No wiping. Let it dry on its own.

Colloidal Silver.

Good stuff. It is NOT the miracle drug that cures warts constipation Ebola freckles bad breath and bad complexions. Used and most importantly MADE correctly it is a good thing to have on hand. We use. And no we’re not blue!

Always use .999 pure silver, DO NOT USE STERLING SILVER! There is also .9999 pure but it is expensive and unnecessary. We use 1/8″ ribbon also called “bezel”.

Make Your Own Colloidal Silver

Fill a quart jar about 1/2″ from the top with distilled water and heat to boiling. The reason for this is because distilled water, not having any minerals in it, is a poor conductor of electricity. After being heated to near boiling, it will allow for the electrolysis to take place. DO NOT USE ANY OTHER TYPE OF WATER! Now make a hook on one end of each strip of silver (like a candy cane) and hang them on the edge of the jar and into the water, about an inch apart. Clip the two wires from the generator to the silver strips making sure that the clips do not touch the water or each other and that the strips do not touch each other!

You can tell when it has begun the process, you can see a what looks like smoke coming off of one the strips. If it doesn’t appear to be doing anything in a minute or so, scoot the wires a little closer together. If that still doesn’t work, sprinkle a few grains of table salt right in between the strips and it will take right off. Will it kill Covid-19? I can not answer that here. FDA rules. But we use it at home. A Damn good write up is on The Medic Shack Colloidal Silver

Hand washing.

Sounds goofy in a way. But a lot of people do not know how to wash their hands. Correctly. Now we’re not talking the surgical scrub I do every day. Just basic hand washing.

  • We Your Hands.
  • Use soap. Antibacterial is not necessary.
  • Scrub your hands while counting to 20. Make sure to get in between your fingers and your nails
  • Rinse completely.
  • Dry with a paper towel. SHTF paper towels will be like gold. Use a clean cloth towel and hang in the sun to dry. Viruses HATE ultraviolet light. Use a separate towel for each person. Seriously.
  • Use that paper towel or towel to turn off the faucet.

There are different schools of thought on using a towel to turn off the water. In the medical field we used to be taught that from day one. Today some say it doesn’t matter. YMMV.

Water temperature. It doesn’t matter. Up until 2 weeks ago, I told one of my best friends to use warm water. ANNNND some studies have been published and they all agree it doesn’t matter. The soap and water combination works either way.

Alcohol and hand washing

Alcohol based scrubs. I mentioned earlier that we use a product called Avagard for surgical scrubs. I also said that we do a real scrub first thing in the morning and after eating or going to the bathroom. What I didn’t mention is why we do those old style washing up. The reason is right above y’all, In hand washing. The scrubs kill bacteria. To a point. They kill viruses. To a point. Hand washing doesn’t kill them. It REMOVES them. And it will remove Covid-19

That is why I cringe when I see a porta potty with that little bottle of hand sanitizer, Yes its better than nothing. It is however a false sense of security. That fecal bacterial that ends up on EVERYONE’S HANDS is still there. They are weakened, but they are not killed. Something to think about.

A friend of mine who is marrying a Marine friend of mine.  I don’t know who to be more concerned about Sigurd getting civilized, or Jessica getting Uncivilized! She wrote this piece on a Facebook group:

Jessica Kozack The Soul Purpose

There is a lot of hype going on about the Novel CoronaVirus known as Covid-19. I wanted to discuss how to protect from viruses like Covid-19 and also the flu which is also going around. I find I always feel better when I am prepared. Aromatherapy can be quite effective in treating and preventing illness along with being supportive and healing while sick. I did have the flu a month ago. It was brought home by my daughter who caught it at a school fair and she proceeded to sneeze directly into my face uncontrollably.

I knew in that moment regardless of what I used or did I would catch it so I used aromatherapy to support us and prevent us from getting any secondary infection.

1) Wash hands thoroughly and often with good old soap and water

2) Make your own hand sanitizer with Vodka, Colloidal Silver, Aloe Vera, and essential oils that are antiviral

3) Make a cleaning and disinfecting spray using vinegar and water with essential oils and cleanse surfaces, etc multiple times a day in your home, work space etc

4)Diffusers are our best weapon for killing airborne viruses and treating respiratory illnesses. I have many diffusers and I recommend using them at this time in your home to kill virus bugs and support the immune system.

Pets and Oils

**Please be mindful of your pets and children when using essential oils. They should always be diluted and diffusers should not be located directly near your pets especially with the super bug killing essential oils as they are harsher. If someone is ill and you are using a diffuser with the super bug killer it is best to keep your pets out of this room. Pets will also walk away from a diffuser if it is to strong for them. Just be mindful.**

A diffuser works best if it turns on every 15mins with a timer and diffuses for a minute. You would need to get a timer for most diffusers.

Here is my list of essential oils.

Super Bug Killer oils a little goes a long way and never use undiluted:

Lemongrass

Cinnamon

Clove

Oregano

Thyme

Expectorant and Antiviral Oils:

Ravensara

Eucalyptus

Tea Tree (multipurpose bug killer)

Oils that soothe an inflamed respiratory tract:

Cedarwood

Frankincense

Pine

Spruce

Balsam Fir

Benzoin

Oils that support secondary bacterial infections and kill bacteria:

Rosemary

Peppermint

Lavender

Lemon

**Eucalyptus, Lavender, Cedarwood, Tea Tree, Lemon , Benzoin are safer less harsh oils to use around small children and Elderly.

If I am going to be dealing with a super bug I will have the harsh oils on hand and will use them safely and responsibly. When used safely

and responsibly they actually work most effectively and typically with no contraindications or negative impact.

Do not ingest essential oils they are 75-100x stronger than the plant, fruit, herb they are derived from. If you take anything internally keep it to herbs and supplements.

Used with permission from Jessica Kozack The Soul Purpose

And in closing:

We have talked about in past blogs on some of the herbs that MAY help fight off the virus TMS Post on Coronavirus 

By staying healthy, eating right and doing your best to avoid crowded places and sick people is one of the best ways to beat this. Do your normal prepper things that we always do. DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE PANIC. Right now there is not to much to panic about. Other than your 401K taking a massive dump at the market. Right now it is almost impossible to get ibuprofen, Tylenol, basic cold and flu medicines at the local stores. There is  for some reason there is a massive run on toilet paper at Costco.

You already had all that right? If not you have read our posts on cold and flu and other posts we have made on this? Good I thought so! Don’t panic. Do not over work yourself. And don’t get yourself all worked up over something out of your control. Stay out of crowds. If you feel sick STAY HOME. A lot of conferences around the country are being canceled. For good reason. As preppers we play it smart. Don’t forget that. Play it smart

Market Watch: How ‘Survivalists’ Are Preparing for Coronavirus Epidemic

Could this happen in the U.S.? A man walks around empty refrigerators in a supermarket in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.

From the folks at Market Watch, How America’s extreme ‘survivalists’ are preparing for a worst-case coronavirus epidemic — ‘beans, bullets and Band-Aids’ 

James Wesley Rawles is hunkered down at an undisclosed location west of the Rockies. “I’m not at liberty to say what state I live in,” he told MarketWatch via internet phone. “I live in the inland Northwest… more than two hours from any decent shopping. We could lock our gate and say goodbye to the world for two or three years and get along just fine.”

He’s on his ranch with a large family. “I’m not at liberty to discuss it,” says Rawles, a former U.S. Army Intelligence officer. “Let’s just say it is a very large family.”

This is a key moment for “preppers” or “survivalists” like Rawles. While the coronavirus has spooked markets into massive sell-offs and sent shoppers to stores like Costco COST, -0.03%   to stock up on supplies, survivalists have been prepping for something like this for years. Even decades.

“I was a ‘prepper’ long before that term even came into being,” says Jim Cobb, author of Preppers’ Long-Term Survival Guide and Urban Emergency Survival Plan. “Since I was 16 years old,” says Rawles, when asked when he first started readying himself for a possible apocalypse. “That was in 1976.”

‘Be prepared for whatever life throws at you.’

—Jim Cobb, author of ‘Preppers’ Long-Term Survival Guide and Urban Emergency Survival Plan’

Nobody knows for sure, but there may be many more preppers in the U.S. The term covers everything from “doomsday preppers” in the northern mountain states to people who just make sure to be stocked up at home in case of disaster.

Rawles, the author of the “Patriots” doomsday novels, and the website survivalblog.com, has been living at his undisclosed ranch since 2006. He is a messianic Christian and a controversial figure. “The general public is clueless,” Rawles. “I call them the GDP — the Generally Dumb Public.”

Most people will be unprepared if there are shortages, or if they have to go into quarantine, he says. He’s watched the run on things like N95 face masks — despite health officials’ recommendation that the public not buy them — without surprise. “It is at times like this that the GDP wakes up,” he says. “My motto is panic now and beat the rush.”

“I’ve been doing it my whole life,” says “Doc Montana,” a survivalist who asked that MarketWatch not share his real name. “[A] lot of urban people aren’t prepared for a disaster,” he adds.

Cobb, meanwhile, lives in a more mainstream environment in Wisconsin, where he works as a disaster preparedness consultant and a writer. “I’m not an ‘end of the world is coming’ kind of guy,” he says. “It isn’t a case of having to batten down the hatches because the zombies are going to get us. For me, preparedness is common sense. Be prepared for whatever life throws at you.”

Some preppers say the coronavirus was on their radar in January

Rawles says he and other preppers noticed that the commodities markets were flashing alarm signals about China long before Wall Street paid attention. “We started raising alarms about this in early January,” says Rawles. “The commodities markets essentially fell apart.”

Oil slumped, he pointed out. Copper, a key leading indicator of economic activity, plunged. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks demand for global shipping, went south. He and many fellow preppers think the virus is likely to be a so-called “Black Swan event” — the term coined by author Nassim Taleb to describe major, sudden, and unpredictable shocks to the system.

Rawles, who says he is ready for his long-expected doomsday a scenario, says he holds his money in platinum, silver, and U.S. nickels, which he believes will be valuable because of their base metal content.

So far, the World Health Organization is calling coronavirus, or Covid-19, an epidemic rather than a pandemic. Worldwide, there had been over 90,000 cases and 3,100 deaths as of Tuesday. However, more than 80,000 of those cases are in China.

The WHO is calling coronavirus an ‘epidemic’ rather than a ‘pandemic.’

The definition of an epidemic and pandemic are somewhat vague. An epidemic refers to a surge in the number of cases of a disease, while a pandemic refers to a disease that has spread widely across countries and continents.

The WHO has declared the coronavirus a “global health emergency,” the organization’s highest alert level.

As President Trump confirmed during last week’s press conference on the disease, the federal government does have contingency plans, even including quarantining cities, if it should get much worse.

Many preppers don’t believe the reassurances about the scale of the epidemic, least of all the information coming out of China.

They both agree on one thing: a worst-case scenario is the most likely outcome. Some, like Rawles, fear the worst from the coronavirus. He thinks it is “unstoppable” and “will be all over the planet in the next months.” Doc Montana believes the authorities are trying to warn people to get ready without causing a stampede.

But others are more philosophical and, perhaps, less apocalyptic. “There is so much goofy stuff that is floating around on social media,” says Cobb. “You don’t know what’s right and what’s wrong.” His take? “No. 1, don’t worry about what you don’t know. Worry about what you can control. As a practical matter, prepping for a pandemic isn’t that different from prepping for a sudden job loss or a power outage.”

‘Don’t worry about what you don’t know. Worry about what you can control.’

—Jim Cobb, author of ‘Preppers’ Long-Term Survival Guide and Urban Emergency Survival Plan.’

Most preppers are nothing if not dramatic, and they have a variety of terms to describe total disaster. Most of them are acronyms…

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